Turkish 1. Lig21°14 km/h

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    Esenler EroksporEsenler EroksporPossession & high press
    vs
    Fatih KaragümrükFatih KaragümrükPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Esenler Erokspor (52%)

    Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Esenler Erokspor 52%X 25%22% Fatih Karagümrük · 2

    Analysis: Esenler Erokspor – Fatih Karagümrük

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    A telling 52% win probability marks Esenler Erokspor as slight favorites against Fatih Karagümrük. Despite trailing in points and xPoints, Erokspor's profile emerges as competitive in this clash between teams favoring possession and high press. The model sees a narrow advantage for the hosts, forecasting a tight match.

    Both teams have identical tactical approaches, which could lead to a stalemate in midfield but also leave gaps to exploit. Interestingly, the expected goals suggest a slight edge for Erokspor with 1.55 compared to Karagümrük's 1.10, aligning with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0. Given that the over 2.5 goals probability hovers at 50%, a high-scoring affair seems less likely; expect a cagey contest with potential for both sides to find the net.

    While the head-to-head record is inconclusive with just two matches, the betting value lies with Erokspor. The odds of 1.99 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a positive expected value (EV+) given the model's 52% win estimate. For those eyeing value, backing the hosts at those odds seems a calculated move.

    Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor
    Form DLDLD
    League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #2xP/match #18Points #18
    Key players
    • Braian José Samudio SegoviaFxG 0.22 · xT 0.13
    • Hayrullah BilazerRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
    • Onur UlasCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
    Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
    Form WDDLD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #15xT #1xP/match #9Points #12
    Key players
    • Aleksandar PešićFxG 0.76 · xT 0.14
    • Tiago Süer Barbaros ÇukurLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.09
    • Ahmed TraoreRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.24

    Match prediction: Esenler Erokspor – Fatih Karagümrük

    Predicted score matrix

    Fatih Karagümrük →
    Esenler Erokspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.4%
    0–17.4%
    0–24.3%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–010.5%
    1–112.4%
    1–26.6%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.5%
    2–19.3%
    2–25.2%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.4%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,55–1,10
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.94
    Over 2,550%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Esenler Erokspor to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.06

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Esenler Erokspor to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals50%
    • Braian José Samudio Segovia to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Braian José Samudio Segovia to score34%
    • Davide Biraschi to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Esenler Erokspor52% probability@1.99BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Esenler Erokspor52% probability@1.99BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Esenler Erokspor52% probability@1.99NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Esenler EroksporX2 · Fatih Karagümrük
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.99    		3.383.38
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    1.99    		3.383.38
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.99    		3.383.38

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 09:37

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    50 %45 %

    1.90 → 1.99

    X-3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.47 → 3.38

    2-6 %
    29 %24 %

    3.61 → 3.38

    Over 2,5+1 %
    55 %50 %

    1.74 → 1.75

    Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Esenler Erokspor 1Draw 0Fatih Karagümrük 1
    Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Esenler Erokspor
    Fatih Karagümrük
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Esenler Erokspor (4–8)
    Fatih Karagümrük (10–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Esenler Erokspor
    Luccas Claro dos Santos: 207 passningar, xT 0.31SantosNicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier: 185 passningar, xT 0.84JanvierGuélor Kanga Kaku: 174 passningar, xT 0.43KakuHayrullah Bilazer: 174 passningar, xT 0.98BilazerBahadır Öztürk: 168 passningar, xT 0.42ÖztürkErdem Canpolat: 125 passningar, xT 0.15CanpolatErkan Kas: 113 passningar, xT 0.69KasEnes Alic: 93 passningar, xT 0.31AlicMikail Okyar: 93 passningar, xT 0.07OkyarOnur Ulas: 92 passningar, xT 0.21UlasBraian José Samudio Segovia: 89 passningar, xT 0.45Segovia
    Fatih Karagümrük
    Robin Yalçın: 239 passningar, xT 0.61YalçınDavide Biraschi: 233 passningar, xT 1.27BiraschiEmmanouil Siopis: 170 passningar, xT 0.17SiopisÇağtay Kurukalıp: 161 passningar, xT 0.59KurukalıpEmre Akbaba: 125 passningar, xT 0.58AkbabaRamazan Civelek: 119 passningar, xT 0.42CivelekMarco Silvestri: 118 passningar, xT 0.16SilvestriAhmed Traore: 102 passningar, xT 0.71TraoreDorukhan Toköz: 81 passningar, xT 0.22ToközAtinc Nukan: 81 passningar, xT 0.35NukanMuhammed Emin Sarıkaya: 75 passningar, xT 0.42Sarıkaya
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Esenler Erokspor
    Luccas Claro dos Santos: 207 passningar, xT 0.31SantosNicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier: 185 passningar, xT 0.84JanvierGuélor Kanga Kaku: 174 passningar, xT 0.43KakuHayrullah Bilazer: 174 passningar, xT 0.98BilazerBahadır Öztürk: 168 passningar, xT 0.42ÖztürkErdem Canpolat: 125 passningar, xT 0.15CanpolatErkan Kas: 113 passningar, xT 0.69KasEnes Alic: 93 passningar, xT 0.31AlicMikail Okyar: 93 passningar, xT 0.07OkyarOnur Ulas: 92 passningar, xT 0.21UlasBraian José Samudio Segovia: 89 passningar, xT 0.45Segovia
    Fatih Karagümrük
    Robin Yalçın: 239 passningar, xT 0.61YalçınDavide Biraschi: 233 passningar, xT 1.27BiraschiEmmanouil Siopis: 170 passningar, xT 0.17SiopisÇağtay Kurukalıp: 161 passningar, xT 0.59KurukalıpEmre Akbaba: 125 passningar, xT 0.58AkbabaRamazan Civelek: 119 passningar, xT 0.42CivelekMarco Silvestri: 118 passningar, xT 0.16SilvestriAhmed Traore: 102 passningar, xT 0.71TraoreDorukhan Toköz: 81 passningar, xT 0.22ToközAtinc Nukan: 81 passningar, xT 0.35NukanMuhammed Emin Sarıkaya: 75 passningar, xT 0.42Sarıkaya

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceEsenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
    Points59
    xPoints7.39.9
    xG per match11.4
    xGA per match1.11.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.2
    Playing styleEsenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.670.54
    xT per match1.51.5
    xTA per match0.751.2
    Won balls, offensive half2628
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.26
    Entries into the box per match1615
    Entries into the box against1012
    Pass completion %0.780.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match397339
    Passes against per match281377
    Switches of play per match29.928.6
    Long balls per match4241
    Set piecesEsenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
    xG from free kicks0.030.09
    Corners per match4.64.7
    Corners against per match4.64.8
    xG per corner0.010.06
    xGA per corner against0.030.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.39
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.61
    OtherEsenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
    Throw-in control0.740.71
    The goalkeepersErdem Canpolat (Esenler Erokspor)Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)
    Saves2022
    Save %71%69%
    xG prevented55%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Esenler Erokspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fatih Karagümrük
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük according to our model?

    The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Esenler Erokspor 52%, draw 25%, Fatih Karagümrük 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    SivassporSivasspor
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.