Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig22 August 202629°18 km/h

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AntalyasporPossession control

2–3

PendiksporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Pendikspor (39%)

1 · Antalyaspor 31%X 30%39% Pendikspor · 2

31%

30%

39%

Analysis: Antalyaspor – Pendikspor

Oscar Nilsson · 21 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A clash of styles sets the stage for Antalyaspor against Pendikspor, with the latter team having the model's backing. Despite the hosts’ slight edge in points, the underlying metrics tell a different story. With expected goals of 1.35 to 1.02 favoring the visitors, Pendikspor's high press and possession approach seems likely to disrupt Antalyaspor's control tactics, potentially finding the gaps in their defense, which has leaked an average of 2.5 goals per match.

The numbers favor the visitors. Pendikspor holds a 39% chance of winning according to the model, while the most probable scorelines, 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%), suggest a low-scoring affair. Antalyaspor's current form, overshadowed by Pendikspor's ability to generate chances, further tilts the balance. The visitors have been more efficient with their opportunities, generating 1.3 xG per match compared to Antalyaspor’s 1.0.

Goals might be scarce. The model leans towards a match with under 2.5 total goals at 58%, reflecting both teams' low-scoring tendencies and defensive focus. The likelihood of a clean sheet is high for Pendikspor, given Antalyaspor's struggles to convert possession into goals. However, a 10% chance of a 0-0 draw offers intrigue, particularly with Betsson offering odds of 11.0 for under 0.5 goals, presenting a tempting value proposition.

For the sharp bettor, Pendikspor at odds 3.49 with both Betsson and Nordicbet stands out as a 36% edge value bet. The numbers suggest that the visitors have a solid chance to capitalize on Antalyaspor’s defensive vulnerabilities, making the away win a compelling option to consider.

Antalyaspor

Form WL

League ranking xG #14xGA #20xT #17xP/match #20Points #8

Key players

Sander Van De StreekFxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
Ramzi SafuriCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Mevlüt ŞimşekRWxG 0.50 · xT 0.07

Pendikspor

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #17xT #1xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Hakan YeşilRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.73
Rogério Conceição do RosárioLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Final score

2 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Antalyaspor 31% · Draw 30% · Pendikspor 39%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,56fair 11,32+11 %

Hit

Matchresultat - AntalyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,93fair 19,46-64 %

Miss

Match prediction: Antalyaspor – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Antalyaspor →

0–09.8%

0–112.3%

0–28.5%

0–33.8%

0–4+1.7%

1–09.2%

1–113.3%

1–28.7%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–04.9%

2–16.6%

2–24.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.7%

3–12.2%

3–21.5%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,02–1,35

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.79EV+4%

Over 2,542%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (X2)72%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (X2)72%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Jonson Scott Clarke-Harris to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Alexander Gerard van de Streek to score31%
Soner Dikmen to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Pendikspor39% probability@3.49BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
2 · Pendikspor39% probability@3.49BetssonEV+36%reference odds
2 · Pendikspor39% probability@3.49NordicbetEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Antalyaspor	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	1.95	EV+ 1% 3.40	EV+ 36% 3.49
Betsson	1.95	EV+ 1% 3.40	EV+ 36% 3.49
Nordicbet	1.95	EV+ 1% 3.40	EV+ 36% 3.49

Odds updated 22 Aug, 17:35

Odds movement

10 %

49 %39 %

1.95 → 1.95

X0 %

32 %22 %

3.40 → 3.40

20 %

33 %23 %

3.49 → 3.49

Over 2,5+2 %

54 %44 %

1.85 → 1.89

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Antalyaspor

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Antalyaspor (4–5)

Pendikspor (3–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Antalyaspor

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Antalyaspor

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
Points	3	1
xPoints	1	1.5
xG per match	1	1.3
xGA per match	2.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	1.1	0.1

Playing style	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.33
Field tilt	0.49	0.67
xT per match	0.56	1.5
xTA per match	1.2	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	20	17
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	16	8
Pass completion %	0.82	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.76
Passes per match	440	409
Passes against per match	231	249
Switches of play per match	36.2	31.5
Long balls per match	39	38

Set pieces	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.08
Corners per match	2.5	4.9
Corners against per match	6	1.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	1

Other	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.63	0.88

The goalkeepers	Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor)	Emre Koyuncu (Pendikspor)
Saves	8	3
Save %	62%	33%
xG prevented	26%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Antalyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Antalyaspor 31%, draw 30%, Pendikspor 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.