Turkish 1. Lig28°13 km/h

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    BodrumsporBodrumsporPossession control
    0–0
    MU
    MuğlasporPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Bodrumspor (50%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 8.00 (+87 %)

    Bodrumspor – Muğlaspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Bodrumspor 50%X 23%26% Muğlaspor · 2

    Analysis: Bodrumspor – Muğlaspor

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Bodrumspor's 50% win probability signals a slight edge, yet their xPoints suggest Muğlaspor might have the upper hand. Both sides bring contrasting styles: the hosts lean towards possession control, while the visitors push with a high press. Bodrumspor's home win rate stands at 59% across 22 matches in recent years, hinting at a solid foundation. However, Muğlaspor's defensive metrics—particularly their lower expected goals against (xGA)—could challenge Bodrumspor's attacking ambitions.

    The expected goals data is telling: Bodrumspor lead with 1.96 to Muğlaspor's 1.32, suggesting more attacking intent from the hosts. Yet the most likely scorelines, either 1-1 or 2-1, reflect a fine balance. This is a matchup where small margins decide outcomes, especially given the visitors' slight xPoints edge and the hosts' xG advantage. An over 2.5 goals probability at 64% further underscores the potential for a lively contest, with both teams to score at 63%.

    The sharpest angle here is the value on overs, particularly the over 4.5 goals market. Both Betsson and Nordicbet offer odds of 6.63, with the model rating this bet a 23% chance—revealing a significant 55% edge. Given the match dynamics and potential for scoring, this presents a compelling opportunity for the risk-tolerant bettor.

    BodrumsporBodrumspor
    Form WWLLD
    League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #8xP/match #16Points #14
    Key players
    • Ege BilselLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.02
    • Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.12
    • Ali AytemurCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
    Muğlaspor
    Form LD
    League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #14xP/match #15Points #16
    Key players
    • Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
    • Ali Kaan GunerenCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    • Driton CamajLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Bodrumspor 50% · Draw 23% · Muğlaspor 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - MuglasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 17,58fair 11,27+56 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Bodrumspor – Muğlaspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Muğlaspor →
    Bodrumspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.0%
    0–14.7%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–110.0%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–07.2%
    2–19.5%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–16.2%
    3–24.1%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–14.8%
    4+–23.2%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-07%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    1,96–1,32
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @1.59
    Over 2,564%
    @2.18EV+39%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bodrumspor to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.23

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bodrumspor to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Ahmet Aslan to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Ahmet Aslan to score23%
    • Musah Mohammed to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.523% probability@8.00BetsafeEV+87%reference odds
    • Over 4.523% probability@8.00BetssonEV+87%reference odds
    • Over 4.523% probability@8.00NordicbetEV+87%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BodrumsporX2 · Muğlaspor
    Betsafe1.893.17
    EV+ 5%
    4.02
    Betsson1.893.17
    EV+ 5%
    4.02
    Nordicbet1.893.17
    EV+ 5%
    4.02

    Odds updated 22 Aug, 16:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 21 August — the odds have shortened from 1.74 to 1.59 (−9%).

    1+11 %
    56 %46 %

    1.71 → 1.89

    X-9 %
    33 %23 %

    3.48 → 3.17

    2-12 %
    27 %17 %

    4.56 → 4.02

    Over 2,5+12 %
    50 %40 %

    1.95 → 2.18

    Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Bodrumspor win 59% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bodrumspor
    Muğlaspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bodrumspor (2–4)
    Muğlaspor (0–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 105 passningar, xT 0.28AytemurIsmail Tarim: 89 passningar, xT 0.25TarimMustafa Erdilman: 77 passningar, xT 0.4ErdilmanBerşan Yavuzay: 61 passningar, xT 0.14YavuzayEmre Kaplan: 54 passningar, xT 0.03KaplanEge Bilsel: 46 passningar, xT 0.02BilselFlorian Loshaj: 41 passningar, xT 0.2LoshajDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 39 passningar, xT 0.12SousaYusuf Sertkaya: 38 passningar, xT 0.01SertkayaEge Arslan: 28 passningar, xT 0.17ArslanAli Habeşoğlu: 24 passningar, xT 0.12Habeşoğlu
    Muğlaspor
    Yigit Fidan: 92 passningar, xT 0.17FidanBilal Ceylan: 69 passningar, xT 0.25CeylanAli Kaan Guneren: 57 passningar, xT 0.08GunerenJurgen Çelhaka: 57 passningar, xT 0.09ÇelhakaAlihan Kazmaz: 46 passningar, xT 0.1KazmazDaniel Avramovski: 44 passningar, xT 0.14AvramovskiEkrem Kilicarslan: 39 passningar, xT -0.01KilicarslanDriton Camaj: 29 passningar, xT 0.19CamajSelim Dilli: 26 passningar, xT 0.05DilliEngin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım: 23 passningar, xT -0.11YıldırımLuis Enrique Del Pino Mago: 20 passningar, xT 0.08Mago
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 105 passningar, xT 0.28AytemurIsmail Tarim: 89 passningar, xT 0.25TarimMustafa Erdilman: 77 passningar, xT 0.4ErdilmanBerşan Yavuzay: 61 passningar, xT 0.14YavuzayEmre Kaplan: 54 passningar, xT 0.03KaplanEge Bilsel: 46 passningar, xT 0.02BilselFlorian Loshaj: 41 passningar, xT 0.2LoshajDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 39 passningar, xT 0.12SousaYusuf Sertkaya: 38 passningar, xT 0.01SertkayaEge Arslan: 28 passningar, xT 0.17ArslanAli Habeşoğlu: 24 passningar, xT 0.12Habeşoğlu
    Muğlaspor
    Yigit Fidan: 92 passningar, xT 0.17FidanBilal Ceylan: 69 passningar, xT 0.25CeylanAli Kaan Guneren: 57 passningar, xT 0.08GunerenJurgen Çelhaka: 57 passningar, xT 0.09ÇelhakaAlihan Kazmaz: 46 passningar, xT 0.1KazmazDaniel Avramovski: 44 passningar, xT 0.14AvramovskiEkrem Kilicarslan: 39 passningar, xT -0.01KilicarslanDriton Camaj: 29 passningar, xT 0.19CamajSelim Dilli: 26 passningar, xT 0.05DilliEngin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım: 23 passningar, xT -0.11YıldırımLuis Enrique Del Pino Mago: 20 passningar, xT 0.08Mago

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBodrumsporMuğlaspor
    Points11
    xPoints1.71.9
    xG per match0.880.56
    xGA per match1.51.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball00
    Playing styleBodrumsporMuğlaspor
    Build-up efficiency0.310.36
    Field tilt0.380.5
    xT per match1.10.77
    xTA per match10.56
    Won balls, offensive half2723
    Pressing intensity0.250.2
    Pressing efficiency0.250.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.21
    Entries into the box per match158
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.750.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.69
    Passes per match345290
    Passes against per match394444
    Switches of play per match28.721
    Long balls per match4826
    Set piecesBodrumsporMuğlaspor
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match5.54
    Corners against per match43.5
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.270.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.250.29
    OtherBodrumsporMuğlaspor
    Throw-in control0.760.6
    The goalkeepersDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor)
    Saves123
    Save %75%60%
    xG prevented70%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bodrumspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Muğlaspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bodrumspor vs Muğlaspor according to our model?

    The model gives Bodrumspor a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodrumspor 50%, draw 23%, Muğlaspor 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.