Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor Prediction: Home win 59% (13 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig13 October 202616°39,2 mm17 km/h

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BandırmasporPossession control

SivassporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bandırmaspor (59%)

1 · Bandırmaspor 59%X 26%16% Sivasspor · 2

59%

26%

16%

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Analysis: Bandırmaspor – Sivasspor

Erik Lindberg · 6 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Bandırmaspor's chances of securing a victory in this clash stand at 59%, a clear indicator of their upper hand against Sivasspor. With 60% of their home matches historically ending in victory, the hosts' solid record at their own ground provides an additional layer of confidence. The expected goals model further supports a Bandırmaspor edge, predicting 1.83 goals compared to Sivasspor's 0.83. While the head-to-head record is evenly split at one win apiece, the sample size of two matches is too small to weigh heavily against the current form and expected goals.

The most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 suggest a controlled, low-scoring affair, consistent with both teams' possession-heavy styles. Bandırmaspor's defensive record at home, where they allow just over one expected goal per game, reinforces the likelihood of keeping the visitors at bay. A draw, however, is not out of the question at 26%, as both teams have shown similar underlying metrics in recent games, with Bandırmaspor holding a slight edge in actual points but trailing in expected points.

Given the predicted tight nature of the match, the under 2.5 goals option is compelling, though not definitive at 50%. The sharpest betting angle lies with Bet365 offering Bandırmaspor to win at odds of 1.71, a potential value considering their home dominance.

Bandırmaspor

Form DLWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #13xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Gianni BrunoFxG 0.65 · xT -0.01
Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Kerem DönertaşFxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Sivasspor

Form LDWDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #19xT #16xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Rey ManajFxG 0.77 · xT -0.04
Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Valon EthemiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Bandırmaspor – Sivasspor

Predicted score matrix

Sivasspor →

Bandırmaspor →

0–07.3%

0–15.5%

0–22.4%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.5%

1–110.9%

1–24.4%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.7%

2–19.7%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.2%

3–15.9%

3–22.5%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.0%

4+–14.1%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.2-012%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,83–0,83

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.68

Over 2,550%

@2.04EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bandırmaspor to win59%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bandırmaspor to win59%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score30%
Kamil Fidan to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bandırmaspor59% probability@2.33BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor59% probability@2.33NordicbetEV+37%reference odds
Over 2.550% probability@2.04BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bandırmaspor	X	2 · Sivasspor
Betsafe	EV+ 37% 2.33	3.19	2.86
Nordicbet	EV+ 37% 2.33	3.19	2.86

Odds updated 8 Oct, 18:37

Odds movement

1+2 %

42 %37 %

2.29 → 2.33

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.19

2-2 %

34 %29 %

2.91 → 2.86

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.04 → 2.04

Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 08/10/2026 → 08/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Bandırmaspor 1Draw 0Sivasspor 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Bandirmaspor win 60% of their home matches all-time (45 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bandırmaspor

Sivasspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bandırmaspor (12–5)

Sivasspor (9–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Sivasspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Sivasspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bandırmaspor	Sivasspor
Points	10	8
xPoints	9.8	10.4
xG per match	1.4	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.27

Playing style	Bandırmaspor	Sivasspor
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.67	0.46
xT per match	0.91	0.78
xTA per match	0.65	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	21
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	8	13
Pass completion %	0.81	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.69
Passes per match	428	283
Passes against per match	240	334
Switches of play per match	33.5	28.4
Long balls per match	43	37

Set pieces	Bandırmaspor	Sivasspor
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.15
Corners per match	4.6	3.9
Corners against per match	3.3	5.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.67

Other	Bandırmaspor	Sivasspor
Throw-in control	0.75	0.7

The goalkeepers	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)	Arda Erdursun (Sivasspor)
Saves	25	15
Save %	83%	83%
xG prevented	45%	76%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Sivasspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor according to our model?

The model gives Bandırmaspor a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bandırmaspor 59%, draw 26%, Sivasspor 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.