Iğdır vs Batman Petrolspor Prediction: Home win 42% (10 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig10 October 202615°11 km/h

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IğdırPossession control

Batman PetrolsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Iğdır (42%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+6 %)

1 · Iğdır 42%X 31%28% Batman Petrolspor · 2

42%

31%

28%

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Analysis: Iğdır – Batman Petrolspor

Marcus Johansson · 3 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

FAKTA mismatch found: the text introduces a specific bookmaker odds figure ("2.40 with Bet365") that is not supported by any data in the FACTS. This is an unsupported claim and should be removed or rephrased to rely only on the given probabilities.

Corrected text:

Iğdır's unbeaten streak of five league matches underlines their defensive solidity, but it's Batman Petrolspor's slightly superior xG per match at 1.6 that hints at a more potent attack. Despite Iğdır's control over recent results, the model still leans toward the hosts, suggesting a tight contest with a slight edge to them.

Both teams share a similar tactical approach, focusing on possession control. This similarity could lead to a midfield battle where each side vies for dominance without taking excessive risks. Given that the model anticipates a fairly balanced scoring outlook, as reflected in the 47% probability for over 2.5 goals, it seems unlikely that either team will break away with a commanding lead.

Historical form suggests a narrow contest, but with Batman Petrolspor holding a slight edge in points and expected points, they can't be discounted. The visitors also boast a superior offensive xG, which might give them the upper hand in creating quality chances. However, the hosts balance this with a matching defensive record, with both teams showing the same expected goals against (xGA).

The most probable scorelines, such as 1-1 and 1-0, reinforce the expectation of a close match, with a draw or narrow home win on the cards. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 51%, further supporting the notion of a cagey encounter where defenses might just hold the day.

Based on the model's probabilities, Iğdır FK holds a slight edge at 42% to win, making them the model's lean in this finely poised matchup.

Iğdır

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #18xP/match #8Points #4

Key players

Arda ColakFxG 0.19 · xT -0.01
Gokcan KayaLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
Doğan ErdoğanCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Batman Petrolspor

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #15xT #10xP/match #7Points #3

Key players

Bernardo Martins de SousaRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.20
Jin-Ho JoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Pedro Henrique Oliveira dos SantosFxG 0.54 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Iğdır – Batman Petrolspor

Predicted score matrix

Batman Petrolspor →

Iğdır →

0–08.1%

0–18.0%

0–24.5%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.1%

1–112.7%

1–26.7%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.5%

2–19.1%

2–24.9%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.2%

3–14.5%

3–22.4%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,48–1,08

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.94EV+3%

Over 2,547%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)73%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan to score22%
Jin-Ho Jo to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.58% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 0.58% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.38BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Iğdır	X	2 · Batman Petrolspor
Betsafe	2.09	EV+ 3% 3.38	3.14
Nordicbet	2.09	EV+ 3% 3.38	3.14

Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

47 %42 %

2.04 → 2.09

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.47 → 3.38

2-1 %

31 %26 %

3.18 → 3.14

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.75 → 1.75

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Igdir FK are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Iğdır

Batman Petrolspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Iğdır (12–7)

Batman Petrolspor (17–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Batman Petrolspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Batman Petrolspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Iğdır	Batman Petrolspor
Points	16	19
xPoints	12	13.5
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.32

Playing style	Iğdır	Batman Petrolspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.47	0.5
xT per match	0.76	1
xTA per match	0.95	1
Won balls, offensive half	23	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.29
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.68
Passes per match	310	308
Passes against per match	344	289
Switches of play per match	19.9	24.9
Long balls per match	33	41

Set pieces	Iğdır	Batman Petrolspor
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.05
Corners per match	4.9	4.8
Corners against per match	5.2	3.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.67

Other	Iğdır	Batman Petrolspor
Throw-in control	0.66	0.67

The goalkeepers	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)	Caglar Akbaba (Batman Petrolspor)
Saves	24	27
Save %	77%	68%
xG prevented	57%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Iğdır

Fixtures, form & tips

Batman Petrolspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Iğdır vs Batman Petrolspor according to our model?

The model gives Iğdır a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iğdır 42%, draw 31%, Batman Petrolspor 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.