Bodrumspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü Prediction: Away win 40% (9 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig9 October 202620°10 km/h

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BodrumsporPossession control

Ankara KeçiörengücüPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (40%)

1 · Bodrumspor 32%X 28%40% Ankara Keçiörengücü · 2

32%

28%

40%

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Analysis: Bodrumspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Ankara Keçiörengücü come into this match with a formidable streak, unbeaten in their last seven league games—a testament to their strong form. They've been consistent in finding the back of the net, scoring in eight consecutive league outings. The visitors boast a solid 40% win probability according to the model, suggesting they have the upper hand against Bodrumspor, whose home win percentage sits at 56% over their 25 matches played. But the model’s lean towards Ankara is significant, and it’s reflected in the numbers.

Bodrumspor, despite their possession-based style, struggle to translate control into goals. Their expected goals tally of just 0.62 per match pales in comparison to Ankara's impressive 1.7. Meanwhile, Bodrumspor's defense has been leaking, averaging 1.3 goals against per match, suggesting vulnerabilities that a sharp Ankara attack can exploit. The small head-to-head sample—just two games since 2024—shows a win apiece, offering little insight compared to the current form and expected goals metrics.

The odds favor a competitive encounter, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 0-1. The model gives a 54% chance for both teams to score, which aligns with the evenly matched possession styles. However, Ankara's superior xPoints (14.4 vs 7.4) and their consistent scoring ability tilt the balance in their favor. The over 2.5 goals is a coin toss at 50%, but given Ankara's recent scoring trend, there's a slight tilt towards the over as they could edge the hosts in a multi-goal game.

Ankara's current form and attacking prowess suggest they are poised to continue their unbeaten run, aligning with the model's lean toward a visitor win.

Bodrumspor

Form DDLWD

League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #19xP/match #19Points #14

Key players

Ege BilselLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.02
Ali AytemurCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Form DWWDD

League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #12xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Mame DioufFxG 0.44 · xT 0.06
Ishak KaraogulFxG 0.11 · xT 0.00
Francis EzehLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Bodrumspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

Predicted score matrix

Ankara Keçiörengücü →

Bodrumspor →

0–07.3%

0–19.7%

0–27.3%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.8%

1–08.1%

1–112.6%

1–28.9%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.1%

2–17.5%

2–25.4%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.1%

3–13.0%

3–22.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,22–1,45

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.83

Over 2,550%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Halil Can Ayan to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Halil Can Ayan to score20%
Mustafa Erdilman to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Bodrumspor	X	2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü
Betsafe	2.66	3.28	2.42
Nordicbet	2.66	3.28	2.42

Odds updated 4 Oct, 17:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Ankara Keçiörengücü win since 2 October — the odds have shortened from 2.66 to 2.42 (−9%).

1+10 %

38 %33 %

2.42 → 2.66

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.28 → 3.28

2-9 %

39 %34 %

2.66 → 2.42

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.85 → 1.85

Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Bodrumspor 1Draw 0Ankara Keçiörengücü 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Ankara Keciorengucu are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Ankara Keciorengucu have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Bodrumspor win 56% of their home matches all-time (25 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bodrumspor

Ankara Keçiörengücü

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bodrumspor (7–6)

Ankara Keçiörengücü (17–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bodrumspor

Ankara Keçiörengücü

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bodrumspor

Ankara Keçiörengücü

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bodrumspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Points	8	13
xPoints	7.4	14.4
xG per match	0.62	1.7
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.15

Playing style	Bodrumspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.34	0.44
xT per match	0.73	0.94
xTA per match	1.3	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.19
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	307	312
Passes against per match	368	383
Switches of play per match	24.8	25.9
Long balls per match	43	38

Set pieces	Bodrumspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	4.2	3.9
Corners against per match	4.4	4.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.53

Other	Bodrumspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Throw-in control	0.67	0.71

The goalkeepers	Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)	Emre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)
Saves	28	12
Save %	82%	63%
xG prevented	82%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bodrumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bodrumspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü according to our model?

The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodrumspor 32%, draw 28%, Ankara Keçiörengücü 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.