Sivasspor vs Pendikspor Prediction: Away win 41% (9 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig9 October 202612°14 km/h

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SivassporPossession control

PendiksporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Pendikspor (41%)

1 · Sivasspor 30%X 29%41% Pendikspor · 2

30%

29%

41%

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Analysis: Sivasspor – Pendikspor

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim: no Bet365 odds (2.75) were provided in the facts, and this entire detail is fabricated.

CORRECTED TEXT:

The head-to-head record between these sides is limited, with only two encounters since 2024, and it's Pendikspor who have a slight edge, having secured a draw and a win. But this small sample pales in importance next to the current form and underlying metrics. The visiting side not only holds more points but also edges Sivasspor in both expected points and expected goals against per match. This suggests a structural solidity that might tip the balance in a tight contest.

Sivasspor, known for their possession-focused style, aim to control the tempo, yet their defensive vulnerabilities are evident with an xGA of 1.7 per match. This could be their undoing against a Pendikspor side that presses aggressively and capitalizes on turnovers. Despite Sivasspor's slight edge in xG per match, their failure to convert possession into tangible results is a concern. The model's likelihood of a draw or narrow win either way underscores the finely poised nature of this clash.

In terms of scorelines, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome at 13%, followed closely by a 0-1 victory for the visitors at 11%. The expected goals figures of 1.14 for Sivasspor and 1.33 for Pendikspor suggest a game that could very well end with under 2.5 goals, a sentiment backed by the model's 45% estimate for such an occurrence. The high press of Pendikspor combined with Sivasspor's possession approach might cancel each other out more often than not.

With a 41% win probability for Pendikspor compared to 30% for Sivasspor and 29% for a draw, the model leans toward an away victory as the most likely outcome, though the margins remain tight given the competitive underlying numbers on both sides.

Sivasspor

Form LDWDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #19xT #16xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Rey ManajFxG 0.77 · xT -0.04
Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Valon EthemiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.06

Pendikspor

Form DLWDD

League ranking xG #16xGA #4xT #3xP/match #11Points #13

Key players

Rogério Conceição do RosárioFxG 0.21 · xT 0.03
Bekir KaradenizRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Sivasspor – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Sivasspor →

0–08.9%

0–110.9%

0–27.5%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.3%

1–113.2%

1–28.5%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.5%

2–17.3%

2–24.8%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.1%

3–12.8%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,14–1,33

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.74

Over 2,545%

@1.95

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Rey Manaj to score30%
Kamil Fidan to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Pendikspor41% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Pendikspor41% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sivasspor	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	2.43	3.19	EV+ 12% 2.72
Nordicbet	2.43	3.19	EV+ 12% 2.72

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

40 %35 %

2.43 → 2.43

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.19 → 3.19

20 %

36 %31 %

2.72 → 2.72

Over 2,50 %

50 %45 %

1.95 → 1.95

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sivasspor 0Draw 1Pendikspor 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sivasspor

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sivasspor (9–11)

Pendikspor (10–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sivasspor	Pendikspor
Points	8	10
xPoints	10.4	10.6
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	0.95
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.11

Playing style	Sivasspor	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.46	0.58
xT per match	0.78	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	21	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.73	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.75
Passes per match	283	395
Passes against per match	334	325
Switches of play per match	28.4	34.5
Long balls per match	37	49

Set pieces	Sivasspor	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.04
Corners per match	3.9	4.7
Corners against per match	5.4	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.67

Other	Sivasspor	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.7	0.79

The goalkeepers	Arda Erdursun (Sivasspor)	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)
Saves	15	11
Save %	83%	61%
xG prevented	76%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sivasspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sivasspor vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sivasspor 30%, draw 29%, Pendikspor 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.