Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor Prediction: Home win 55% (11 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig11 October 202617°9 km/h

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Fatih KaragümrükPossession & high press

MuğlasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Fatih Karagümrük (55%)

1 · Fatih Karagümrük 55%X 24%21% Muğlaspor · 2

55%

24%

21%

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Analysis: Fatih Karagümrük – Muğlaspor

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Fatih Karagümrük have a 55% win probability against Muğlaspor, a decisive figure shaping the pre-match narrative. Despite a small 1-point lead in the standings, the hosts' superior expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints) underline their stronger form. Playing at home, where they have won 58% of their matches all-time (24 played), adds another layer to their advantage. While Muğlaspor's unbeaten streak of seven games might suggest resilience, the numbers indicate this is a tougher contest for them.

The matchup points to a tactical battle of possession, with both teams favoring control in their playstyles. However, Fatih Karagümrük's high press, combined with their higher xG per match of 1.4 compared to Muğlaspor's 1.2, suggests they are more likely to break through. The expected goals against (xGA) are identical for both at 1.2, indicating neither side is particularly vulnerable defensively. With a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood for both teams to score, a low-scoring game feels more probable.

The 1-0 scoreline, at 12%, aligns with these insights. Though a draw is possible, Fatih Karagümrük seem poised for a narrow win.

Fatih Karagümrük

Form DDLDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #1xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Aleksandar PešićFxG 0.65 · xT 0.12
Ahmed TraoreRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
Emmanouil SiopisCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Muğlaspor

Form WWDDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #7xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Yasin UzunoğluFxG 0.47 · xT 0.00
Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Engin Poyraz Efe YıldırımFxG 0.18 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Fatih Karagümrük – Muğlaspor

Predicted score matrix

Muğlaspor →

Fatih Karagümrük →

0–08.1%

0–17.2%

0–23.7%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.0%

1–112.3%

1–25.8%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–19.5%

2–24.6%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.1%

3–15.0%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.9%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-012%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,58–0,97

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

–

Over 2,547%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fatih Karagümrük to win55%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fatih Karagümrük to win55%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Aleksandar Pešić to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Aleksandar Pešić to score30%
Luis Enrique Del Pino Mago to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

Muğlaspor are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Fatih Karagumruk win 58% of their home matches all-time (24 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fatih Karagümrük

Muğlaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fatih Karagümrük (12–11)

Muğlaspor (8–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Muğlaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Muğlaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fatih Karagümrük	Muğlaspor
Points	12	11
xPoints	12.2	10.3
xG per match	1.4	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.12

Playing style	Fatih Karagümrük	Muğlaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.35
Field tilt	0.51	0.47
xT per match	1.5	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.19
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	326	315
Passes against per match	378	362
Switches of play per match	26.5	21.7
Long balls per match	39	29

Set pieces	Fatih Karagümrük	Muğlaspor
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.06
Corners per match	4.2	3.6
Corners against per match	5.4	4.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.53

Other	Fatih Karagümrük	Muğlaspor
Throw-in control	0.72	0.73

The goalkeepers	Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)	Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor)
Saves	23	18
Save %	70%	72%
xG prevented	61%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fatih Karagümrük

Fixtures, form & tips

Muğlaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor according to our model?

The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fatih Karagümrük 55%, draw 24%, Muğlaspor 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.