Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer Prediction: Away win 40% (9 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig9 October 202620°16 km/h

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ÜmraniyesporLow block & direct

SarıyerPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Sarıyer (40%)

1 · Ümraniyespor 32%X 28%40% Sarıyer · 2

32%

28%

40%

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Analysis: Ümraniyespor – Sarıyer

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Sarıyer's possession-based approach looks set to clash with Ümraniyespor's preference for a low block and direct play, setting the stage for a strategic battle. With Sarıyer controlling the ball, the hosts will likely rely on quick transitions and counter-attacks. The visitors' superior xG per match of 1.4 compared to Ümraniyespor's 0.86 suggests Sarıyer will generate more quality chances. However, the home side's ability to defend compactly could limit clear opportunities.

Looking at the numbers, Sarıyer seems to have the upper hand. Their 14-point haul compared to Ümraniyespor’s 6 points, alongside stronger expected points and goals against averages, shows a pattern of greater efficiency and defensive solidity. Ümraniyespor's defensive setup might mitigate some of Sarıyer’s attacking threat, as indicated by their xGA of 1.1 being only slightly worse than Sarıyer's 1.0. Still, Sarıyer's ability to control possession might gradually wear down the home defense.

The likelihood of a stalemate is underscored by the model's prediction of a 1-1 scoreline being the most probable outcome at 14%. This aligns with the expected goals tally that barely tips into two combined. While the head-to-head record is evenly split over just two encounters, it is too small a sample to significantly influence expectations.

At 40%, Sarıyer is favored to win, bolstered by their stronger overall metrics. The odds for a Sarıyer victory might offer some value if the market underestimates their edge. Given the model's 39% chance of over 2.5 goals, a conservative lean towards the under 2.5 goals market is prudent, reflecting the likely tactical nature of the contest.

Ümraniyespor

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #7xT #14xP/match #10Points #16

Key players

Oguz YildirimRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
Alejandro Blanco SánchezRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.14
Santeri HostikkaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.17

Sarıyer

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
Batuhan KörFxG 0.47 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Ümraniyespor – Sarıyer

Predicted score matrix

Sarıyer →

Ümraniyespor →

0–011.0%

0–111.2%

0–26.3%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.9%

1–113.7%

1–27.3%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.1%

2–17.7%

2–24.2%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–02.7%

3–13.0%

3–21.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-111%
4.0-011%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,16–1,09

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.68EV+3%

Over 2,539%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sarıyer or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sarıyer or draw (X2)63%
Under 2.5 goals61%
André Ivan Biyogo Poko to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals39%
André Ivan Biyogo Poko to score18%
Andrej Đokanović to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sarıyer40% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Sarıyer40% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
Under 2.561% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ümraniyespor	X	2 · Sarıyer
Betsafe	2.37	3.18	EV+ 13% 2.80
Nordicbet	2.37	3.18	EV+ 13% 2.80

Odds updated 2 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

41 %36 %

2.33 → 2.37

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.19 → 3.18

2-2 %

35 %30 %

2.86 → 2.80

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.04 → 2.04

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ümraniyespor 1Draw 0Sarıyer 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ümraniyespor

Sarıyer

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ümraniyespor (6–9)

Sarıyer (11–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ümraniyespor

Sarıyer

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ümraniyespor

Sarıyer

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ümraniyespor	Sarıyer
Points	6	14
xPoints	11	13.4
xG per match	0.86	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.24

Playing style	Ümraniyespor	Sarıyer
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.44	0.54
xT per match	0.9	1.1
xTA per match	1.5	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	21	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.17
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	376	390
Passes against per match	413	356
Switches of play per match	27.3	31.7
Long balls per match	37	41

Set pieces	Ümraniyespor	Sarıyer
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.1
Corners per match	4.3	3.6
Corners against per match	4.3	3.9
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.42

Other	Ümraniyespor	Sarıyer
Throw-in control	0.65	0.71

The goalkeepers	Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor)	Ibrahim Šehić (Sarıyer)
Saves	24	13
Save %	75%	68%
xG prevented	49%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ümraniyespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Sarıyer

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer according to our model?

The model gives Sarıyer a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ümraniyespor 32%, draw 28%, Sarıyer 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.