Vanspor vs Bandırmaspor Prediction: Away win 59% (9 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig9 October 2026

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VansporPossession control

BandırmasporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Bandırmaspor (59%)

1 · Vanspor 18%X 23%59% Bandırmaspor · 2

18%

23%

59%

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Analysis: Vanspor – Bandırmaspor

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Bandırmaspor enters this clash with a hefty 59% win probability, underlining their status as favorites. The two prior encounters between these sides since 2024 saw Bandırmaspor emerge victorious both times, though the sample is undeniably small. More telling is the xG data: Bandırmaspor consistently out-performs Vanspor with 1.4 xG per match compared to the hosts' 1.2, while also maintaining a tighter defense with an xGA of 1.1 against Vanspor's 1.6. This suggests a structural advantage for Bandırmaspor.

Vanspor's possession control strategy has not translated into results, reflected in their mere 6 points opposed to Bandırmaspor's 10. While the xPoints are closer, still favoring Bandırmaspor (9.8 to 8.9), it indicates that Bandırmaspor have been slightly more effective in converting their chances, despite similar playing philosophies. The expected goals further forecast a challenging night for Vanspor, predicting their xG at just 0.94 compared to Bandırmaspor's 1.78.

The model’s most likely scorelines are tight, with 0-1 and 1-1 both at 11%, but Bandırmaspor’s superior form leans towards a 0-1 victory. At 51%, the over 2.5 goal probability sits on a knife edge.

Vanspor

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #15xP/match #14Points #17

Key players

Furkan OzhanRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.13
Naby OulareCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Jurgen BardhiCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.06

Bandırmaspor

Form DLWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #13xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Gianni BrunoFxG 0.65 · xT -0.01
Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Kerem DönertaşFxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Vanspor – Bandırmaspor

Predicted score matrix

Bandırmaspor →

Vanspor →

0–06.9%

0–111.4%

0–210.4%

0–36.2%

0–4+4.1%

1–05.9%

1–111.4%

1–29.8%

1–35.8%

1–4+3.9%

2–02.9%

2–15.2%

2–24.6%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.8%

3–00.9%

3–11.6%

3–21.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-111%
2.1-111%
3.0-210%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,94–1,78

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

–

Over 2,551%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bandırmaspor to win59%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bandırmaspor to win59%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score24%
Hikmet Çiftçi to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Vanspor 0Draw 0Bandırmaspor 2

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vanspor

Bandırmaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vanspor (5–14)

Bandırmaspor (12–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vanspor

Bandırmaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vanspor

Bandırmaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vanspor	Bandırmaspor
Points	6	10
xPoints	8.9	9.8
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.18

Playing style	Vanspor	Bandırmaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.67
xT per match	0.84	0.91
xTA per match	0.98	0.65
Won balls, offensive half	18	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.34
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	10	8
Pass completion %	0.73	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.76
Passes per match	295	428
Passes against per match	398	240
Switches of play per match	17	33.5
Long balls per match	27	43

Set pieces	Vanspor	Bandırmaspor
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	4.6	4.6
Corners against per match	3.6	3.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.59

Other	Vanspor	Bandırmaspor
Throw-in control	0.66	0.75

The goalkeepers	Naby Oulare (Vanspor)	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)
Saves	6	25
Save %	100%	83%
xG prevented	100%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vanspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vanspor vs Bandırmaspor according to our model?

The model gives Bandırmaspor a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vanspor 18%, draw 23%, Bandırmaspor 59%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.