Sarıyer vs Bodrumspor Prediction: Home win 52% (13 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig13 October 202616°19 km/h

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SarıyerPossession control

BodrumsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sarıyer (52%)

1 · Sarıyer 52%X 27%22% Bodrumspor · 2

52%

27%

22%

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Analysis: Sarıyer – Bodrumspor

Sofia Andersson · 6 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Bodrumspor's recent encounters with Sarıyer haven't been fruitful, with Sarıyer winning both of their two meetings since 2024. However, this is a small sample size and less indicative of the current season's form and expected goals. Beyond head-to-head outcomes, Sarıyer's overall performance metrics this season provide stronger clues to the match's potential outcome.

Sarıyer comes into this fixture with a clear statistical advantage. They edge Bodrumspor in points (14 to 8) and xPoints (13.4 to 7.4), demonstrating more consistent underlying performances. Their expected goals per match (1.4) significantly outstrip Bodrumspor’s 0.62, hinting at a more potent attacking threat. Meanwhile, defensively, the hosts also appear sturdier, conceding fewer expected goals against per match (1.0) compared to the visitors' 1.3.

With both teams favoring a possession-based style, this could become a tight battle for midfield control. However, Sarıyer's stronger efficiency in turning possession into actual goal-scoring chances may tilt the balance in their favor. The model forecasts a 52% probability of a home win, reflecting Sarıyer's superior form and expected goal metrics. The most likely scoreline, a 1-0 victory for Sarıyer at 14%, aligns with their defensive solidity and slightly better offensive output.

For bettors, the sharpest angle appears to be Sarıyer to win outright, translating the model's 52% home win probability into value. Depending on the bookmaker, any odds over 1.92 (or +92 in American odds) would represent positive expected value. With the under 2.5 goals market sitting at a 60% probability, backing a low-scoring affair could also offer a prudent play, emphasizing a narrow but decisive edge for the hosts.

Sarıyer

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
Batuhan KörFxG 0.47 · xT 0.03

Bodrumspor

Form DDLWD

League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #19xP/match #19Points #14

Key players

Ege BilselLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.02
Ali AytemurCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Sarıyer – Bodrumspor

Predicted score matrix

Bodrumspor →

Sarıyer →

0–010.5%

0–18.6%

0–24.0%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.3%

1–013.9%

1–113.0%

1–25.6%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.0%

2–18.8%

2–23.9%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–04.7%

3–14.1%

3–21.8%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.0%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.2-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,40–0,88

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

–

Over 2,540%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sarıyer to win52%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sarıyer to win52%
Under 2.5 goals60%
André Ivan Biyogo Poko to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals40%
André Ivan Biyogo Poko to score20%
Mustafa Erdilman to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sarıyer 2Draw 0Bodrumspor 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sarıyer

Bodrumspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sarıyer (11–9)

Bodrumspor (7–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Bodrumspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Bodrumspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sarıyer	Bodrumspor
Points	14	8
xPoints	13.4	7.4
xG per match	1.4	0.62
xGA per match	1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.12

Playing style	Sarıyer	Bodrumspor
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.3
Field tilt	0.54	0.34
xT per match	1.1	0.73
xTA per match	0.87	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	390	307
Passes against per match	356	368
Switches of play per match	31.7	24.8
Long balls per match	41	43

Set pieces	Sarıyer	Bodrumspor
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.04
Corners per match	3.6	4.2
Corners against per match	3.9	4.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	0.53

Other	Sarıyer	Bodrumspor
Throw-in control	0.71	0.67

The goalkeepers	Ibrahim Šehić (Sarıyer)	Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)
Saves	13	28
Save %	68%	82%
xG prevented	42%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sarıyer

Fixtures, form & tips

Bodrumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sarıyer vs Bodrumspor according to our model?

The model gives Sarıyer a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarıyer 52%, draw 27%, Bodrumspor 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.