01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Ankara Keçiörengücü to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Turkish 1. Lig16°6,6 mm19 km/h
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Ankara KeçiörengücüPossession controlvs
IğdırPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (51%)
Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü 51%X 26%24% Iğdır · 2
51%
26%
24%
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Analysis: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Iğdır
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Ankara Keçiörengücü's attacking prowess is evident as they aim to extend their scoring streak to nine consecutive league matches. They've maintained an unbeaten run over the last seven games, a testament to their solid form and tactical discipline. With expected goals (xG) of 1.71 against Iğdır's 1.13, Keçiörengücü shows a clear edge in offensive potential, suggesting that they are well-equipped to handle the visitors' challenge.
Iğdır, however, won't be easy opponents. They're also on a strong run, unbeaten in their last five league matches. Despite this, their xPoints of 12.0 lag behind Keçiörengücü’s 14.4, and they have a slightly inferior xGA of 1.3 compared to Keçiörengücü's 1.2, pointing to a more vulnerable defensive line.
The head-to-head record between these teams since 2024 is evenly split, with each side claiming two victories. Yet, with only four matches in this sample, these results carry less weight than current form and expected goals data. Both teams favor a possession-based style, which might result in a tightly contested midfield battle, but Keçiörengücü's recent scoring form suggests they can break through Iğdır's defenses.
The model favors Ankara Keçiörengücü, with a 51% win probability, reflecting their slight edge in form and expected goals. The most likely scorelines — 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 — indicate a closely fought match, but with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, there is potential for a higher-scoring game.
Ankara KeçiörengücüForm DWWDD
League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #12xP/match #2Points #6
Key players
- Mame DioufFxG 0.44 · xT 0.06
- Ishak KaraogulFxG 0.11 · xT 0.00
- Francis EzehLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
IğdırForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #18xP/match #8Points #4
Key players
- Arda ColakFxG 0.19 · xT -0.01
- Gokcan KayaLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
- Doğan ErdoğanCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Iğdır
Predicted score matrix
Iğdır →
Ankara Keçiörengücü →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–16.3%
0–23.7%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.7%
1–111.6%
1–26.4%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.5%
2–19.7%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.9%
3–15.5%
3–23.1%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.1%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,71–1,13
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
–
Over 2,554%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Ankara Keçiörengücü to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Halil Can Ayan to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Halil Can Ayan to score27%
- Alim Öztürk to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAnkara Keçiörengücü 2Draw 0Iğdır 2
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.
Key facts
- Ankara Keciorengucu are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Ankara Keciorengucu have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Igdir FK are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ankara Keçiörengücü
Iğdır
Ankara Keçiörengücü (17–10)
Iğdır (12–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ankara Keçiörengücü
Iğdır
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ankara Keçiörengücü
Iğdır
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Iğdır |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 16 |
| xPoints | 14.4 | 12 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Iğdır |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 312 | 310 |
| Passes against per match | 383 | 344 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.9 | 19.9 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Iğdır |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| Other | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Iğdır |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Emre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü) | Jakub Szumski (Iğdır) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 24 |
| Save % | 63% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır according to our model?
The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ankara Keçiörengücü 51%, draw 26%, Iğdır 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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