01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Esenler Erokspor or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Turkish 1. Lig14°2,7 mm10 km/h
Läs på svenska
Manisa FKPossession controlvs
Esenler EroksporPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Esenler Erokspor (37%)Soft draw
Manisa FK vs Esenler Erokspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Manisa FK 35%X 28%37% Esenler Erokspor · 2
35%
28%
37%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Manisa FK – Esenler Erokspor
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
With Esenler Erokspor's aggressive high press clashing against Manisa FK's possession-based control, the match is set to be a tactical chess game. Despite the hosts' apparent edge in points and expected points (xPoints), the visitors seem to have a knack for unsettling them, as evidenced by their head-to-head record, where Erokspor boasts three wins in four encounters. While this sample is small, it's a psychological advantage that can't be ignored.
The models give Erokspor a slight edge with a 37% chance of victory compared to Manisa's 35%. The expected goals (xG) suggest a tight contest, predicting 1.33 for Manisa and 1.41 for Erokspor. These figures reflect a match that is likely to see both sides finding the net. The most probable scorelines, 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2, further underline the match's competitive nature, with 56% odds on both teams scoring.
Manisa's ability to retain possession and create chances is evident from their superior xG of 1.5 per match compared to Erokspor's 0.95. However, Erokspor's defensive resilience, reflected in their lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.1, might just tip the scales in their favor during crucial moments. Their high press could disrupt Manisa's rhythm, leading to counter-attacking opportunities.
From a betting perspective, Esenler Erokspor's slight model lean might offer value for those considering an underdog triumph. Meanwhile, the 52% probability for over 2.5 goals suggests a lean towards a score above that mark, hinting at a lively encounter. Balancing Erokspor's head-to-head dominance and Manisa's edge in season points, a 1-2 away win emerges as the most compelling outcome.
Manisa FKForm DLLDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #6xP/match #9Points #8
Key players
- Cheikne SyllaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.13
- Atakan CankayaCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
- Julien AnzianiCAMxG 0.55 · xT 0.07
Esenler EroksporForm LDLDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #6xT #2xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Braian José Samudio SegoviaFxG 0.19 · xT 0.10
- Guélor Kanga KakuCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
- Luccas Claro dos SantosCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Manisa FK – Esenler Erokspor
Predicted score matrix
Esenler Erokspor →
Manisa FK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–18.8%
0–26.4%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.5%
1–28.6%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.7%
2–18.0%
2–25.7%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.6%
3–22.5%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,33–1,41
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
–
Over 2,552%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Esenler Erokspor or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Braian José Samudio Segovia to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Braian José Samudio Segovia to score29%
- Jonathan Lindseth to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesManisa FK 0Draw 1Esenler Erokspor 3
Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Manisa FK
Esenler Erokspor
Manisa FK (16–13)
Esenler Erokspor (4–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Manisa FK
Esenler Erokspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Manisa FK
Esenler Erokspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Manisa FK | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 5 |
| xPoints | 12.6 | 7.8 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 0.95 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Manisa FK | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 391 | 395 |
| Passes against per match | 310 | 275 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.7 | 30.9 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 43 |
| Set pieces | Manisa FK | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| Other | Manisa FK | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Vedat Karakuş (Manisa FK) | Erdem Canpolat (Esenler Erokspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 26 |
| Save % | 59% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 27% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Manisa FK vs Esenler Erokspor according to our model?
The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Manisa FK 35%, draw 28%, Esenler Erokspor 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.