01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw (X2)64%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Turkish 1. Lig20°1,2 mm25 km/h
Läs på svenskaMA
Mardin 1969Possession controlvs
Fatih KaragümrükPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Fatih Karagümrük (36%)Soft draw
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Mardin 1969 34%X 30%36% Fatih Karagümrük · 2
34%
30%
36%
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Analysis: Mardin 1969 – Fatih Karagümrük
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A tight 1-1 outcome looms large with a 13% probability for Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük. This expectation of balance is mirrored in their underlying numbers: expected goals are virtually even, at 1.22 for Mardin and 1.21 for Karagümrük. A rainy 15.2°C evening with 16.6 mm of precipitation could further stifle attacking flair, reinforcing a cautious approach that might keep scoring in check.
Despite Mardin's slight statistical edge in xPoints (15.5 to 12.2) and defensive robustness (xGA of 0.89 compared to Karagümrük’s 1.2), the visitors find favor in betting models, favored slightly at 36% to Mardin's 34%. Fatih Karagümrük's high press strategy will test the home side's possession control, though the wet conditions could nullify some of these tactical contrasts.
The over/under line sits squarely below a coin flip at 44% for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a lean towards the under. Both teams to score is a toss-up at 50%, adding little to the goal tally prediction. A low-scoring draw, perhaps 1-1, seems the wisest call here.
Mardin 1969
Form DDWLL
League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #11xP/match #3Points #7
Key players
- Olarenwaju KayodeFxG 0.59 · xT 0.06
- Zdravko Minchev DimitrovLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
- Emre TaşdemirLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.33
Fatih KaragümrükForm DDLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #1xP/match #6Points #10
Key players
- Aleksandar PešićFxG 0.65 · xT 0.12
- Ahmed TraoreRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
- Emmanouil SiopisCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Mardin 1969 – Fatih Karagümrük
Predicted score matrix
Fatih Karagümrük →
Mardin 1969 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–110.3%
0–26.5%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.4%
1–27.8%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–06.6%
2–17.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.7%
3–13.2%
3–21.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,22–1,21
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
–
Over 2,544%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw (X2)64%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Aleksandar Pešić to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Tobi Olarenwaju Ayobami Kayode to score29%
- Baba Alhassan to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mardin 1969
Fatih Karagümrük
Mardin 1969 (10–6)
Fatih Karagümrük (12–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mardin 1969
Fatih Karagümrük
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mardin 1969
Fatih Karagümrük
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mardin 1969 | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPoints | 15.5 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.89 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Mardin 1969 | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 293 | 326 |
| Passes against per match | 355 | 378 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.5 | 26.5 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Mardin 1969 | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.6 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Other | Mardin 1969 | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969) | Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 23 |
| Save % | 79% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük according to our model?
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mardin 1969 34%, draw 30%, Fatih Karagümrük 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.