01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw (X2)73%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Turkish 1. Lig20°42,6 mm16 km/h
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AntalyasporPossession & high pressvs
KayserisporPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Kayserispor (44%)
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Antalyaspor 27%X 29%44% Kayserispor · 2
27%
29%
44%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Antalyaspor – Kayserispor
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Kayserispor's current form and statistical edge might tilt the scales heavily in their favor as they face Antalyaspor. With the visitors riding a wave of three consecutive victories and an impressive record of scoring in nine straight league matches, the model assigns a 44% probability of a Kayserispor win. This is less than the combined chance of Antalyaspor winning or the match ending in a draw. The numbers are clear: the visitors are the team to beat.
Despite both teams sharing a possession-based, high-press style, the effectiveness in execution differs starkly. Kayserispor's xG per match stands at a robust 1.9, nearly double Antalyaspor's 1.1, while also maintaining a tighter defense with an xGA of just 0.76 compared to the hosts' 1.2. These discrepancies highlight a significant qualitative gap in both attack and defense favoring Kayserispor.
Antalyaspor will look to leverage their home advantage, but they have much ground to cover. With only 12 points compared to Kayserispor's 22 and an xPoints deficit (9.9 vs. 16.3), the hosts need a standout performance to upset the odds. The small sample of head-to-head encounters between these teams offers limited insight, thus the season form and expected goals metrics carry more weight.
Given the model's lean and the present dynamics, a 1-1 draw (13% likelihood) or a 0-1 Kayserispor victory (11%) seem probable scorelines. The expected goals also suggest a slight preference for over 2.5 goals (49%), reflecting the attacking capabilities and the calculated nature of both teams' playing styles.
For those eyeing a value bet, Kayserispor to win presents a possible angle given the statistical edge and current momentum, which suggest this might be a solid play in a match where the visitors appear primed to extend their winning streak.
AntalyasporForm LWLWW
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #8xP/match #15Points #9
Key players
- Bunyamin BalciRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
- Ramzi SafuriCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
- Sander Van De StreekLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.06
KayserisporForm LDWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #9xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Daniel MorenoFxG 0.58 · xT 0.01
- Gorkem SaglamLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.23
- Marco Alexandru DulcaFxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Antalyaspor – Kayserispor
Predicted score matrix
Kayserispor →
Antalyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–110.7%
0–28.4%
0–34.3%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.5%
1–29.3%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.5%
2
2–04.4%
2–16.7%
2–25.1%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.4%
3–21.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,10–1,52
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,551%
–
Over 2,549%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw (X2)73%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Taulant Seferi to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Ahmet Sağat to score23%
- Ramzi Safouri to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Kayserispor come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Kayserispor have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Antalyaspor
Kayserispor
Antalyaspor (14–13)
Kayserispor (17–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Antalyaspor
Kayserispor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Antalyaspor
Kayserispor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Antalyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 22 |
| xPoints | 9.9 | 16.3 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.76 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Antalyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 413 | 467 |
| Passes against per match | 302 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.8 | 29.3 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Antalyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| Other | Antalyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor) | Gokhan Degirmenci (Kayserispor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 18 |
| Save % | 56% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 29% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Ankara Keçiörengücü – Iğdır14 October 2026
- Batman Petrolspor – Istanbulspor14 October 2026
- Ümraniyespor – Boluspor14 October 2026
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor according to our model?
The model gives Kayserispor a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Antalyaspor 27%, draw 29%, Kayserispor 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.