01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Ümraniyespor to win54%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Turkish 1. Lig16°13,5 mm13 km/h
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ÜmraniyesporLow block & directvs
BolusporLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Ümraniyespor (54%)
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Ümraniyespor 54%X 26%20% Boluspor · 2
54%
26%
20%
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Analysis: Ümraniyespor – Boluspor
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Ümraniyespor's recent dominance over Boluspor in their head-to-head matchups sets the stage for this encounter. While the sample size is small, with just four meetings since 2024, the hosts have emerged victorious in three out of those four clashes. Boluspor's single win suggests a pattern favoring Ümraniyespor, but it's the current form and underlying metrics that paint a clearer picture.
Ümraniyespor's direct playing style is complemented by their ability to maintain a relatively low defensive line, which has been effective in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. This approach yields them a favorable expected goals (xG) tally of 1.63 compared to Boluspor's 0.91. Boluspor's own direct style hasn't translated into offensive success, as evidenced by their lower xG and higher expected goals against (xGA) of 1.9 per match — a clear vulnerability that Ümraniyespor might exploit.
In terms of league performance, Ümraniyespor’s edge is evident with 6 points compared to Boluspor’s solitary point. The xPoints further highlight this disparity, with the hosts accumulating 11.0 against the visitors' 7.0. It’s a reflection of how effectively Ümraniyespor have converted their chances, even if their expected goals per match (0.86) are modest. Meanwhile, Boluspor's frailties at the back are underscored by their inability to keep opponents at bay, conceding far too often for comfort.
Given these dynamics, the model strongly leans toward a home victory, with a 54% probability. The most probable scorelines are either a slender 1-0 or a 2-0 win for Ümraniyespor, both reflecting their advantage without overwhelming offensive fireworks. With the probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score hovering around 47% and 48% respectively, the lean here is towards a low-scoring affair.
Bet365’s odds of 1.85 for an Ümraniyespor win offer potential value, aligning well with their statistical and historical edge. While not a guarantee, the numbers suggest it’s the angle with the most promise.
ÜmraniyesporForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #7xT #14xP/match #10Points #16
Key players
- Oguz YildirimRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
- Alejandro Blanco SánchezRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.14
- Santeri HostikkaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.17
BolusporForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #20xGA #21xT #20xP/match #21Points #21
Key players
- Rodrigo Rivas GonzálezFxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
- Mustafa Alptekin Cayl?RWxG 0.10 · xT 0.04
- Abdulsamet KırımLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Ümraniyespor – Boluspor
Predicted score matrix
Boluspor →
Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–16.8%
0–23.3%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.5%
1–112.0%
1–25.3%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.5%
2–24.3%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.7%
3–15.2%
3–22.4%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,63–0,91
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,553%
–
Over 2,547%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Ümraniyespor to win54%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Melih Bostan to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Melih Bostan to score24%
- Kevin Andrés Cuesta Rodríguez to be booked19%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesÜmraniyespor 3Draw 0Boluspor 1
Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ümraniyespor
Boluspor
Ümraniyespor (6–9)
Boluspor (3–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ümraniyespor
Boluspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ümraniyespor
Boluspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ümraniyespor | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 1 |
| xPoints | 11 | 7 |
| xG per match | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Ümraniyespor | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 0.61 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 376 | 252 |
| Passes against per match | 413 | 456 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.3 | 21 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Ümraniyespor | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| Other | Ümraniyespor | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor) | Angelo Tafas (Boluspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 23 |
| Save % | 75% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 25% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor according to our model?
The model gives Ümraniyespor a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ümraniyespor 54%, draw 26%, Boluspor 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.