Batman Petrolspor vs Istanbulspor Prediction: Home win 55% (14 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig14 October 202620°0,3 mm17 km/h

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Batman PetrolsporPossession control

IstanbulsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Batman Petrolspor (55%)

1 · Batman Petrolspor 55%X 24%21% Istanbulspor · 2

55%

24%

21%

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Analysis: Batman Petrolspor – Istanbulspor

Oscar Nilsson · 6 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Just a glance at the numbers reveals a clear pattern: Batman Petrolspor, sitting on 19 points compared to Istanbulspor's meager 5, is the favorite here. The model sets the hosts' win probability at 55%, suggesting confidence in their ability to control the game, despite both teams employing similar possession-focused styles. The most likely scoreline of 1-0, with a 12% probability, underlines this advantage.

On expected goals, Batman Petrolspor's 1.74 compared to Istanbulspor's 0.91 further cements the home side's upper hand. This expected domination isn't just theoretical; it aligns with their superior xPoints (13.5 to 11.2) and positive differential in xG (1.6) against xGA (1.3). Istanbulspor's struggles are evident in their defensive numbers where they concede 1.6 xGA per match, making them vulnerable to Petrolspor's attacking threats.

The over/under 2.5 goals sits delicately balanced at 49%, with both teams to score at the same percentage. Heavy rain, anticipated at 19.2 mm, typically dampens goal counts, and is already factored into the model's calculations. This environment supports the lean towards a tight, low-scoring affair, possibly tilting further in Batman's favor.

It's important not to overemphasize head-to-head records, which are scant and less relevant compared to current form. The small sample size here doesn't carry the weight of Batman Petrolspor's recent performances. They have steadily accumulated points and produced tactical consistency, unlike their counterparts.

For bettors keen on finding value, the market might underprice Batman Petrolspor's outright win. With odds at 1.90 on Bet365, the value lies in backing the home side to edge out a narrow victory. The numbers bear this out: Batman Petrolspor is set to continue their ascent, while Istanbulspor’s struggles seem destined to persist.

Batman Petrolspor

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #15xT #10xP/match #7Points #3

Key players

Bernardo Martins de SousaRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.20
Jin-Ho JoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Pedro Henrique Oliveira dos SantosFxG 0.54 · xT 0.08

Istanbulspor

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #17xP/match #16Points #19

Key players

Alieu ChamFxG 0.21 · xT 0.28
Ömer Faruk DuymazFxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
Phellipe Cardoso AraújoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Batman Petrolspor – Istanbulspor

Predicted score matrix

Istanbulspor →

Batman Petrolspor →

0–07.4%

0–16.1%

0–22.9%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.0%

1–111.5%

1–25.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.7%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.2%

3–15.7%

3–22.6%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.0%

4+–13.7%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,74–0,91

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

–

Over 2,549%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Batman Petrolspor to win55%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Batman Petrolspor to win55%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Bernardo Martins de Sousa to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Bernardo Martins de Sousa to score34%
Abdullah Dıjlan Aydın to be booked25%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Batman Petrolspor

Istanbulspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Batman Petrolspor (17–13)

Istanbulspor (9–22)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Batman Petrolspor

Istanbulspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Batman Petrolspor

Istanbulspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Batman Petrolspor	Istanbulspor
Points	19	5
xPoints	13.5	11.2
xG per match	1.6	1.1
xGA per match	1.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.42

Playing style	Batman Petrolspor	Istanbulspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.5	0.37
xT per match	1	0.78
xTA per match	1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	19
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.15
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.71
Passes per match	308	296
Passes against per match	289	413
Switches of play per match	24.9	25.6
Long balls per match	41	36

Set pieces	Batman Petrolspor	Istanbulspor
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.06
Corners per match	4.8	2.8
Corners against per match	3.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.64
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.54

Other	Batman Petrolspor	Istanbulspor
Throw-in control	0.67	0.77

The goalkeepers	Caglar Akbaba (Batman Petrolspor)	Alp Tutar (Istanbulspor)
Saves	27	28
Save %	68%	57%
xG prevented	37%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Batman Petrolspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Istanbulspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Batman Petrolspor vs Istanbulspor according to our model?

The model gives Batman Petrolspor a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Batman Petrolspor 55%, draw 24%, Istanbulspor 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.