Boluspor vs Pendikspor: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig12 September 202620°14 km/h

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BolusporLow block & direct

1–1

PendiksporCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Pendikspor (54%)Best value by the model: 1 · Boluspor @ 8.44 (+91 %)

1 · Boluspor 23%X 24%54% Pendikspor · 2

23%

24%

54%

Analysis: Boluspor – Pendikspor

Anna Karlsson · 12 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The heart of the Boluspor vs Pendikspor matchup is the stark contrast between Boluspor's ongoing struggles and Pendikspor's statistical dominance. Boluspor's six-match losing streak looms large, and even their expected goals (xG) tell a grim tale: a meager 0.75 per match, overshadowed by Pendikspor's 1.1. The visitors' prowess is further underlined by their superior expected goals against (xGA), indicating a tighter defense at 1.1 per match compared to Boluspor's leaky 2.2.

Pendikspor's 54% probability to win, according to the model, is a testament to their edge in quality and form. Their counterattacking style, bolstered by effective crossing, contrasts sharply with Boluspor's direct yet defensively vulnerable approach. The head-to-head record since 2024, albeit a small sample of just four matches, shows Pendikspor triumphant on each occasion. This pattern, while informative, takes a backseat to the current form and underlying stats.

The numbers suggest a low-scoring affair, with a combined 42% likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals. The most likely scorelines echo this with 1-1 and 0-1 both sitting at 13%, while a goalless draw lurks at 10%. Pendikspor's ability to negate Boluspor's home advantage is apparent, and a narrow victory for the visitors seems the course to bet on.

However, if one seeks a high-risk, high-reward angle, the 6.65 odds on a home win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a significant 50% edge according to the model. For the brave willing to defy the stats, this could be the gamble to take. Just don't expect Boluspor to break their dismal run easily; the numbers emphatically favor a Pendikspor win.

Boluspor

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #19xP/match #20Points #20

Key players

Bertu Alican OzyurekFxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Fernando Roberto Escobar RodriguezLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Mustafa Alptekin Cayl?RWxG 0.12 · xT 0.05

Pendikspor

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #9xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Rogério Conceição do RosárioFxG 0.23 · xT -0.01
Hakan YeşilCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
Yekta SönmezFxG 0.21 · xT 0.03

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Boluspor 23% · Draw 24% · Pendikspor 54%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BolusporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 33,19fair 22,75+46 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,51fair 10,56-57 %

Miss

Match prediction: Boluspor – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Boluspor →

0–09.8%

0–112.9%

0–29.4%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.1%

1–08.6%

1–113.0%

1–28.9%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.0%

2–04.3%

2–16.0%

2–24.2%

2–32.0%

2–4+1.0%

3–01.4%

3–11.9%

3–21.3%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-113%
3.0-010%
4.0-29%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,95–1,41

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@2.04EV+18%

Over 2,542%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pendikspor to win54%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pendikspor to win54%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score25%
Can Arda Yılmaz to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Boluspor23% probability@8.44BetsafeEV+91%reference odds
1 · Boluspor23% probability@8.44BetssonEV+91%reference odds
1 · Boluspor23% probability@8.44NordicbetEV+91%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Boluspor	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	EV+ 91% 8.44	EV+ 2% 4.32	1.35
Betsson	EV+ 91% 8.44	EV+ 2% 4.32	1.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 91% 8.44	EV+ 2% 4.32	1.35

Odds updated 12 Sept, 13:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Pendikspor win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 1.47 to 1.35 (−8%).

1+46 %

18 %8 %

5.77 → 8.44

X+3 %

26 %16 %

4.19 → 4.32

2-8 %

71 %61 %

1.47 → 1.35

Over 2,5-6 %

60 %50 %

1.79 → 1.68

Betsson · 27 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Boluspor 0Draw 0Pendikspor 4

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Boluspor have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Boluspor

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Boluspor (1–17)

Pendikspor (8–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Boluspor	Pendikspor
Points	0	8
xPoints	4.3	8.6
xG per match	0.75	1.1
xGA per match	2.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.07

Playing style	Boluspor	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.36	0.49
xT per match	0.73	1
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.75
Passes per match	273	355
Passes against per match	434	369
Switches of play per match	23.8	28.1
Long balls per match	30	44

Set pieces	Boluspor	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.03
Corners per match	2.2	3.6
Corners against per match	5.2	3.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.74	0.71

Other	Boluspor	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.75	0.75

The goalkeepers	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)
Saves	17	8
Save %	55%	62%
xG prevented	25%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Boluspor vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boluspor 23%, draw 24%, Pendikspor 54%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.