Turkish 1. Lig

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    VansporVansporPossession control
    1–1
    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara KeçiörengücüPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (55%)

    Vanspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Vanspor 22%X 23%55% Ankara Keçiörengücü · 2

    Analysis: Vanspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Ankara Keçiörengücü's 55% probability of winning against Vanspor is the standout figure here. This is underlined by their stronger expected goals (xG) of 1.8 compared to Vanspor's 1.08. The visitors are in solid form, unbeaten in their last five league matches, while also holding an edge in points and expected points. This suggests a clear advantage for the away side, particularly in a matchup where both teams favor possession control.

    Vanspor's defensive frailties are evident, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.6 compared to Ankara's leaner 1.0. The hosts' inability to convert possession into tangible results reflects their lower points total, with only 5 on the board. While the most likely scorelines hover around a narrow margin, such as 1-1 or 0-1, the data leans towards an Ankara Keçiörengücü victory, backed by their superior metrics across the board.

    For bettors, the value seems to lie with the visitors, with the model's lean favoring Ankara Keçiörengücü given the current form and statistics. While the over 2.5 goals market shows a slight lean at 54%, the more promising angle appears to be backing the away victory.

    VansporVanspor
    Form LWDLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #20xP/match #16Points #15
    Key players
    • Naby OulareCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    • Jurgen BardhiCAMxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
    • Furkan OzhanRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.13
    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Form WDDWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #8xP/match #2Points #6
    Key players
    • Mame DioufFxG 0.51 · xT 0.01
    • Francis EzehFxG 0.25 · xT 0.19
    • Ishak KaraogulFxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Vanspor 22% · Draw 23% · Ankara Keçiörengücü 55%

    Match prediction: Vanspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

    Predicted score matrix

    Ankara Keçiörengücü →
    Vanspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–19.9%
    0–29.1%
    0–35.4%
    0–4+3.6%
    1
    1–05.9%
    1–111.3%
    1–29.8%
    1–35.8%
    1–4+3.9%
    2
    2–03.3%
    2–15.9%
    2–25.3%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–01.2%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.9%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,08–1,78
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,546%
    –
    Over 2,554%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Ankara Keçiörengücü to win55%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.29

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Ankara Keçiörengücü to win55%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jefferson Nogueira Junior to score16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jurgen Bardhi to score23%
    • Hikmet Çiftçi to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Ankara Keciorengucu are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vanspor
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vanspor (7–13)
    Ankara Keçiörengücü (15–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vanspor
    Naby Oulare: 236 passningar, xT 0.3OulareSinan Osmanoglu: 166 passningar, xT 0.29OsmanogluÖzkan Yiğiter: 146 passningar, xT 0.19YiğiterFaruk Can Genc: 119 passningar, xT 0.19GencMehmet Ozcan: 105 passningar, xT 0.29OzcanMehmet Manış: 102 passningar, xT 1.1ManışBatuhan İşçiler: 96 passningar, xT 0.07İşçilerJurgen Bardhi: 85 passningar, xT 0.29BardhiAbdulsamed Damlu: 72 passningar, xT 0.04DamluOzan Can Kökçü: 60 passningar, xT 0.09KökçüAlperen Uysal: 51 passningar, xT 0Uysal
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Wellington Ferreira Nascimento: 198 passningar, xT 0.41NascimentoIbrahim Akdag: 142 passningar, xT 0.72AkdagIshak Karaogul: 136 passningar, xT -0.01KaraogulAbdullah Celik: 136 passningar, xT 0.38CelikBerkan Keskin: 124 passningar, xT 0.15KeskinSuleyman Lus: 105 passningar, xT 0.36LusOguzcan Caliskan: 98 passningar, xT 0.16CaliskanYunus Bahadir: 86 passningar, xT 0.16BahadirFrancis Ezeh: 85 passningar, xT 0.8EzehEmre Satilmis: 79 passningar, xT 0.07SatilmisOdise Roshi: 64 passningar, xT 0.53Roshi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vanspor
    Naby Oulare: 236 passningar, xT 0.3OulareSinan Osmanoglu: 166 passningar, xT 0.29OsmanogluÖzkan Yiğiter: 146 passningar, xT 0.19YiğiterFaruk Can Genc: 119 passningar, xT 0.19GencMehmet Ozcan: 105 passningar, xT 0.29OzcanMehmet Manış: 102 passningar, xT 1.1ManışBatuhan İşçiler: 96 passningar, xT 0.07İşçilerJurgen Bardhi: 85 passningar, xT 0.29BardhiAbdulsamed Damlu: 72 passningar, xT 0.04DamluOzan Can Kökçü: 60 passningar, xT 0.09KökçüAlperen Uysal: 51 passningar, xT 0Uysal
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Wellington Ferreira Nascimento: 198 passningar, xT 0.41NascimentoIbrahim Akdag: 142 passningar, xT 0.72AkdagIshak Karaogul: 136 passningar, xT -0.01KaraogulAbdullah Celik: 136 passningar, xT 0.38CelikBerkan Keskin: 124 passningar, xT 0.15KeskinSuleyman Lus: 105 passningar, xT 0.36LusOguzcan Caliskan: 98 passningar, xT 0.16CaliskanYunus Bahadir: 86 passningar, xT 0.16BahadirFrancis Ezeh: 85 passningar, xT 0.8EzehEmre Satilmis: 79 passningar, xT 0.07SatilmisOdise Roshi: 64 passningar, xT 0.53Roshi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVansporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Points511
    xPoints7.211.6
    xG per match11.8
    xGA per match1.61
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.17
    Playing styleVansporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Build-up efficiency0.310.34
    Field tilt0.350.45
    xT per match0.681
    xTA per match10.9
    Won balls, offensive half1825
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.18
    Entries into the box per match811
    Entries into the box against1014
    Pass completion %0.730.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.73
    Passes per match280306
    Passes against per match418396
    Switches of play per match15.926.1
    Long balls per match2640
    Set piecesVansporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    xG from free kicks0.060.09
    Corners per match3.74
    Corners against per match3.54.5
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.42
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.56
    OtherVansporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Throw-in control0.640.68
    The goalkeepersNaby Oulare (Vanspor)Emre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)
    Saves612
    Save %100%63%
    xG prevented100%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vanspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vanspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü according to our model?

    The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vanspor 22%, draw 23%, Ankara Keçiörengücü 55%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.