Boluspor vs Pendikspor: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig13 September 202619°13 km/h

Läs på svenska

BolusporLow block & direct

PendiksporCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Pendikspor (54%)Best value by the model: 1 · Boluspor @ 6.69 (+51 %)

1 · Boluspor 23%X 24%54% Pendikspor · 2

23%

24%

54%

Analysis: Boluspor – Pendikspor

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Six consecutive losses for Boluspor create a glaring chasm between them and their visitors. Pendikspor walks in as clear favorites, their 54% win probability underscoring the disparity. Boluspor's defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 2.2 expected goals against per match compared to Pendikspor's 1.1. This suggests a strong likelihood of the visitors capitalizing on Boluspor's vulnerabilities.

The head-to-head record, albeit from a small sample of only four matches, shows a consistent pattern. Pendikspor has prevailed in all encounters since 2024, an ominous sign for the hosts who have failed to secure even a point. Meanwhile, the expected goals further highlight Pendikspor’s edge, standing at 1.41 versus Boluspor's 0.95. The model's numbers already account for these dynamics, suggesting a tense, low-scoring affair. The 0-1 scoreline shares the highest likelihood at 13%, alongside the 1-1 draw.

Betting value emerges sharply on the home side. Despite Boluspor's dire form, the odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 7.59 present a 72% edge. This anomaly, however, is couched in the stark realities of their current form and Pendikspor's dominance. While Pendikspor remains the logical choice, bold punters might eye the home side's generous odds with a calculated risk.

Boluspor

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #19xP/match #20Points #20

Key players

Bertu Alican OzyurekFxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Fernando Roberto Escobar RodriguezLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Mustafa Alptekin Cayl?RWxG 0.12 · xT 0.05

Pendikspor

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #10xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Rogério Conceição do RosárioFxG 0.23 · xT -0.01
Hakan YeşilCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
Yekta SönmezFxG 0.21 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Boluspor – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Boluspor →

0–09.8%

0–112.9%

0–29.4%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.1%

1–08.6%

1–113.0%

1–28.9%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.0%

2–04.3%

2–16.0%

2–24.2%

2–32.0%

2–4+1.0%

3–01.4%

3–11.9%

3–21.3%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-113%
3.0-010%
4.0-29%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,95–1,41

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@2.13EV+23%

Over 2,542%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pendikspor to win54%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pendikspor to win54%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score25%
Can Arda Yılmaz to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Boluspor23% probability@6.69BetsafeEV+51%reference odds
1 · Boluspor23% probability@6.69BetssonEV+51%reference odds
1 · Boluspor23% probability@6.69NordicbetEV+51%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Boluspor	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	EV+ 51% 6.69	4.19	1.42
Betsson	EV+ 51% 6.69	4.19	1.42
Nordicbet	EV+ 51% 6.69	4.19	1.42

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:40

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 1.79 to 1.62 (−9%).

1+16 %

19 %9 %

5.77 → 6.69

X0 %

26 %16 %

4.19 → 4.19

2-3 %

71 %61 %

1.47 → 1.42

Over 2,5-9 %

60 %50 %

1.79 → 1.62

Betsson · 22 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Boluspor 0Draw 0Pendikspor 4

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Boluspor have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Boluspor

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Boluspor (1–17)

Pendikspor (8–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Boluspor	Pendikspor
Points	0	8
xPoints	4.3	8.6
xG per match	0.75	1.1
xGA per match	2.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.07

Playing style	Boluspor	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.36	0.49
xT per match	0.72	1
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.75
Passes per match	273	355
Passes against per match	433	369
Switches of play per match	23.8	28.1
Long balls per match	30	44

Set pieces	Boluspor	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.03
Corners per match	2.2	3.6
Corners against per match	5.2	3.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.74	0.71

Other	Boluspor	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.75	0.75

The goalkeepers	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)
Saves	17	8
Save %	55%	62%
xG prevented	25%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Boluspor vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boluspor 23%, draw 24%, Pendikspor 54%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.