Turkish 1. Lig22°14 km/h

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    ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyesporBalanced & physical
    vs
    AntalyasporAntalyasporPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Ümraniyespor (42%)

    Ümraniyespor – Antalyaspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Ümraniyespor 42%X 25%33% Antalyaspor · 2

    Analysis: Ümraniyespor – Antalyaspor

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Ümraniyespor's blend of balance and physicality sets the stage against Antalyaspor's possession-centric approach, making this clash a study in contrasting styles. Despite the visitors' superior points tally of six against Ümraniyespor's three, the model sees a 42% chance for the hosts to claim victory. The most likely outcomes, a 1-1 draw or a tight 1-0 or 2-1 win for Ümraniyespor, suggest a closely contested match with a slight edge to the home side.

    The expected goals (xG) metrics reveal a nuanced picture. Ümraniyespor generates 0.91 xG per match, trailing Antalyaspor's 1.1 xG. However, in defensive terms, the hosts show resilience with an xGA of 1.2 compared to the visitors' more porous 1.5 xGA. This defensive solidity might prove pivotal in a match where goal-scoring opportunities are expected to be relatively even, with Ümraniyespor's defensive edge potentially tipping the scales.

    Notably, the xPoints tell a different story from the actual points tallies. Ümraniyespor's xPoints of 7.4 indicate a degree of underperformance relative to their play, whereas Antalyaspor's 6.5 xPoints suggest they've been slightly fortunate. This discrepancy supports the model's preference for the hosts, pointing to potential value in backing them given the right odds.

    The betting market offers compelling opportunities. With Ümraniyespor available at odds of 3.01 on platforms like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model sees a 25% edge in this price. This is a significant value play for those looking to capitalize on an underdog with genuine potential to overturn the odds.

    In essence, while both teams might score, the match leans towards a low-scoring affair, barely tipping over the 2.5 goals mark. The real draw lies in the value odds for a home win, promising more than what the raw numbers suggest.

    ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor
    Form LDDLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #9xP/match #13Points #18
    Key players
    • Cebio SoukouFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
    • Oguz YildirimRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
    • Santeri HostikkaLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.18
    AntalyasporAntalyaspor
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #12xP/match #18Points #14
    Key players
    • Ramzi SafuriCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
    • Bunyamin BalciRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
    • Sander Van De StreekLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Ümraniyespor – Antalyaspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Antalyaspor →
    Ümraniyespor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–18.2%
    0–25.5%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–112.5%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.7%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.1%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,43–1,28
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.83
    Over 2,551%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Ümraniyespor or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Ümraniyespor or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Melih Bostan to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Nikola Storm to score20%
    • Soner Dikmen to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Ümraniyespor42% probability@2.91BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • 1 · Ümraniyespor42% probability@2.91BetssonEV+21%reference odds
    • 1 · Ümraniyespor42% probability@2.91NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ÜmraniyesporX2 · Antalyaspor
    Betsafe
    EV+ 21%
    2.91    		3.302.24
    Betsson
    EV+ 21%
    2.91    		3.302.24
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 21%
    2.91    		3.302.24

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 04:38

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    34 %29 %

    2.86 → 2.91

    X-2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.38 → 3.30

    20 %
    44 %39 %

    2.24 → 2.24

    Over 2,50 %
    52 %47 %

    1.85 → 1.85

    Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ümraniyespor
    Antalyaspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ümraniyespor (4–7)
    Antalyaspor (9–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ümraniyespor
    Tomislav Glumac: 294 passningar, xT 0.61GlumacOguz Yildirim: 274 passningar, xT 0.99YildirimMustafa Arda Kartal: 211 passningar, xT 0.62KartalCihan Topaloglu: 186 passningar, xT 0.14TopalogluAli Yasar: 174 passningar, xT 0.14YasarAndrej Djokanovic: 151 passningar, xT -0.06DjokanovicSanteri Hostikka: 128 passningar, xT 0.31HostikkaSerkan Goksu: 114 passningar, xT 0.59GoksuBerat Yılmaz: 106 passningar, xT -0.08YılmazAlejandro Blanco Sánchez: 97 passningar, xT 0.25SánchezEmre Gedik: 92 passningar, xT 0.16Gedik
    Antalyaspor
    Samet Karakoc: 253 passningar, xT 0.5KarakocEnsar Buğra Tivsiz: 224 passningar, xT 0.48TivsizBunyamin Balci: 211 passningar, xT 0.4BalciRamzi Safuri: 200 passningar, xT 0.37SafuriPedro Filipe Barbosa Moreira: 161 passningar, xT 0.19MoreiraFrancis Nzaba: 153 passningar, xT 0.12NzabaGuray Vural: 91 passningar, xT 0.27VuralSander Van De Streek: 84 passningar, xT 0.05StreekErdogan Yesilyurt: 81 passningar, xT 0.18YesilyurtSoner Dikmen: 72 passningar, xT 0.04DikmenVeysel Sari: 58 passningar, xT 0.16Sari
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ümraniyespor
    Tomislav Glumac: 294 passningar, xT 0.61GlumacOguz Yildirim: 274 passningar, xT 0.99YildirimMustafa Arda Kartal: 211 passningar, xT 0.62KartalCihan Topaloglu: 186 passningar, xT 0.14TopalogluAli Yasar: 174 passningar, xT 0.14YasarAndrej Djokanovic: 151 passningar, xT -0.06DjokanovicSanteri Hostikka: 128 passningar, xT 0.31HostikkaSerkan Goksu: 114 passningar, xT 0.59GoksuBerat Yılmaz: 106 passningar, xT -0.08YılmazAlejandro Blanco Sánchez: 97 passningar, xT 0.25SánchezEmre Gedik: 92 passningar, xT 0.16Gedik
    Antalyaspor
    Samet Karakoc: 253 passningar, xT 0.5KarakocEnsar Buğra Tivsiz: 224 passningar, xT 0.48TivsizBunyamin Balci: 211 passningar, xT 0.4BalciRamzi Safuri: 200 passningar, xT 0.37SafuriPedro Filipe Barbosa Moreira: 161 passningar, xT 0.19MoreiraFrancis Nzaba: 153 passningar, xT 0.12NzabaGuray Vural: 91 passningar, xT 0.27VuralSander Van De Streek: 84 passningar, xT 0.05StreekErdogan Yesilyurt: 81 passningar, xT 0.18YesilyurtSoner Dikmen: 72 passningar, xT 0.04DikmenVeysel Sari: 58 passningar, xT 0.16Sari

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceÜmraniyesporAntalyaspor
    Points36
    xPoints7.46.5
    xG per match0.911.1
    xGA per match1.21.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.090.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.47
    Playing styleÜmraniyesporAntalyaspor
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.520.55
    xT per match10.86
    xTA per match1.50.98
    Won balls, offensive half2120
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.260.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.19
    Entries into the box per match1312
    Entries into the box against1412
    Pass completion %0.790.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.73
    Passes per match426392
    Passes against per match360298
    Switches of play per match31.132.1
    Long balls per match4040
    Set piecesÜmraniyesporAntalyaspor
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match4.84.8
    Corners against per match4.13.5
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.39
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.48
    OtherÜmraniyesporAntalyaspor
    Throw-in control0.680.7
    The goalkeepersCihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor)Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor)
    Saves1910
    Save %76%56%
    xG prevented47%29%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ümraniyespor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Antalyaspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ümraniyespor vs Antalyaspor according to our model?

    The model gives Ümraniyespor a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ümraniyespor 42%, draw 25%, Antalyaspor 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.