Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig15 August 202624°31 km/h

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Fatih KaragümrükPossession control

2–1

ÜmraniyesporBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Fatih Karagümrük (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ümraniyespor @ 5.72 (+58 %)

1 · Fatih Karagümrük 46%X 27%28% Ümraniyespor · 2

46%

27%

28%

Analysis: Fatih Karagümrük – Ümraniyespor

Anna Karlsson · 15 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Points are a prized commodity, and Umraniyespor currently holds an edge over Fatih Karagumruk, albeit by the slimmest of margins. The numbers reveal an intriguing undercurrent to this Turkish 1. Lig clash. Despite Fatih Karagumruk's historically dominant home record — a 60% win rate from 20 matches — they come into this fixture with zero points and a mere 0.41 xG per match. Conversely, Umraniyespor has carved out a slight advantage in both points and expected metrics, with an xPoints tally of 1.9 and an xG of 0.69.

Fatih Karagumruk leans heavily on possession control, a style that suits their home environment. Yet, their vulnerability is underscored by an xGA of 1.3, a figure that could be exploited by Umraniyespor's balanced and physical approach. The latter's tactical discipline might just be the key to unlocking a positive result, especially with the model assigning Fatih Karagumruk only a 46% chance of victory.

Two previous head-to-head encounters offer a small sample size, making historical outcomes less reliable than current form. This context makes the model's most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 to Fatih Karagumruk stand out, yet neither suggests a goalfest. The odds of over 2.5 goals sit at a modest 40%, while both teams to score is merely 47%. Such figures hint at a tight, low-scoring affair.

For the sharp bettor, there's a tantalizing opportunity here. Despite being underdogs, Umraniyespor presents value at odds of 4.79 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — a significant 33% edge over the model's estimated 28% win probability for the visitors. A 1-1 draw, or even a narrow 1-0 win for Fatih Karagumruk, seems plausible, but the betting value clearly tilts towards an Umraniyespor surprise.

Fatih Karagümrük

Form WLWWL

League ranking xG #19xGA #13xT #7xP/match #20Points #17

Ümraniyespor

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #4xT #17xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Ali YasarLBxG 0.00 · xT -0.02

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% · Draw 27% · Ümraniyespor 28%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ÜmraniyesporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 26,19fair 17,49+50 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Fatih KaragümrükBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,13fair 13,76-55 %

Miss

Match prediction: Fatih Karagümrük – Ümraniyespor

Predicted score matrix

Ümraniyespor →

Fatih Karagümrük →

0–010.4%

0–110.5%

0–25.8%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.9%

1–113.6%

1–27.1%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.5%

2–18.0%

2–24.3%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.0%

3–13.3%

3–21.8%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,22–1,08

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.71EV+2%

Over 2,540%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fatih Karagümrük to win46%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fatih Karagümrük to win46%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Tiago Süer Barbaros Çukur to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Tiago Süer Barbaros Çukur to score24%
Andrej Đokanović to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ümraniyespor28% probability@5.72BetsafeEV+58%reference odds
2 · Ümraniyespor28% probability@5.72BetssonEV+58%reference odds
2 · Ümraniyespor28% probability@5.72NordicbetEV+58%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fatih Karagümrük	X	2 · Ümraniyespor
Betsafe	1.56	3.61	EV+ 58% 5.72
Betsson	1.56	3.61	EV+ 58% 5.72
Nordicbet	1.56	3.61	EV+ 58% 5.72

Odds updated 15 Aug, 15:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Fatih Karagümrük win since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.56 (−7%).

1-7 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.56

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.48 → 3.61

2+19 %

20 %15 %

4.79 → 5.72

Over 2,5+8 %

50 %45 %

1.85 → 2.00

Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Fatih Karagümrük 1Draw 1Ümraniyespor 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Fatih Karagumruk win 60% of their home matches all-time (20 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fatih Karagümrük

Ümraniyespor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fatih Karagümrük (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Ümraniyespor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Ümraniyespor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fatih Karagümrük	Ümraniyespor
Points	0	1
xPoints	0.6	1.9
xG per match	0.41	0.69
xGA per match	1.3	0.44
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.04	0.04

Playing style	Fatih Karagümrük	Ümraniyespor
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.42	0.48
xT per match	0.97	0.61
xTA per match	0.92	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	14
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.17
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	8	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.81
Passes per match	322	349
Passes against per match	367	393
Switches of play per match	17.4	19.5
Long balls per match	38	30

Set pieces	Fatih Karagümrük	Ümraniyespor
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4.1	6.2
Corners against per match	3.1	6.2
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.17
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.67

Other	Fatih Karagümrük	Ümraniyespor
Throw-in control	0.64	0.48

The goalkeepers	Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)	Andrej Djokanovic (Ümraniyespor)
Saves	3	3
Save %	60%	100%
xG prevented	64%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fatih Karagümrük

Fixtures, form & tips

Ümraniyespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor according to our model?

The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fatih Karagümrük 46%, draw 27%, Ümraniyespor 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.