Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig16 August 202628°28 km/h

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Mardin 1969Balanced & physical

2–0

AntalyasporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Antalyaspor (38%)Best value by the model: 1 · Mardin 1969 @ 3.20 (+6 %)

1 · Mardin 1969 33%X 29%38% Antalyaspor · 2

33%

29%

38%

Analysis: Mardin 1969 – Antalyaspor

Erik Lindberg · 16 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

One point versus three. That's the stark reality as Mardin 1969 host Antalyaspor in this clash, where the visitors' slight edge in form stands in contrast to the hosts' inefficiency in front of goal. Yet, despite Antalyaspor's higher points tally, a closer look at the underlying data reveals a more nuanced picture. Mardin 1969 might just have the upper hand where it counts most: expected points (xPoints). Their solid xGA of 0.68 suggests a resilient defence, whereas Antalyaspor's 1.9 xGA per match is the soft underbelly that could prove costly.

Mardin 1969 opens the curtains of this match as a balanced and physical unit, a style that might just suit the gritty nature of the contest. The expected goals (xG) show a rather unimpressive 0.44 per match, but there's a silver lining in their home odds. At 3.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's value lurking in backing the home side, especially when the model grants them a 33% chance of victory, offering a tantalizing 6% edge.

The 1-1 scoreline stands as the most likely outcome at 13%, with Mardin 1969's potential to snatch a 1-0 win at 10%. The probabilities show a near coin-toss scenario between the two sides, with the home team slightly tipped. Given that, the weather conditions don't throw any curveballs, allowing the match's dynamics to play out without external disruption.

Antalyaspor's inclination for possession-control football might see them dominate the ball but whether they can translate that into goals is another question. With a slim edge in outright win probability at 38%, and factoring in their defensive fragility, they might find Mardin 1969 tougher to break down than anticipated.

Given all that's laid out, the smart money might just ride on the odds value for a Mardin 1969 win. The numbers suggest a low-scoring affair, nudging bettors towards the under 2.5 goals market, which hovers at 49%, and perhaps a cheeky punt on Mardin 1969 to outmuscle their opponents, riding that 6% value edge to a possible win.

Mardin 1969

Form D

League ranking xG #20xGA #4xT #9xP/match #16Points #14

Antalyaspor

Form W

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #18xP/match #18Points #6

Key players

Sander Van De StreekFxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Nikola StormLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
Ramzi SafuriCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.10

Final score

2 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Mardin 1969 33% · Draw 29% · Antalyaspor 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Mardin 1969 SporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,47fair 9,52+31 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AntalyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,16fair 13,35-39 %

Miss

Match prediction: Mardin 1969 – Antalyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Antalyaspor →

Mardin 1969 →

0–07.6%

0–18.3%

0–25.2%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.0%

1–112.7%

1–27.4%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.3%

2–18.8%

2–25.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.5%

3–14.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,43–1,20

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.68

Over 2,549%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Antalyaspor or draw (X2)58%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Antalyaspor or draw (X2)58%
Under 2.5 goals51%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Mardin 196933% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
1 · Mardin 196933% probability@3.20BetssonEV+6%reference odds
1 · Mardin 196933% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mardin 1969	X	2 · Antalyaspor
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 3.20	3.30	2.10
Betsson	EV+ 6% 3.20	3.30	2.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 3.20	3.30	2.10

Odds updated 16 Aug, 09:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Mardin 1969 win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 3.64 to 3.20 (−12%).

1-12 %

32 %22 %

3.64 → 3.20

X-3 %

32 %22 %

3.40 → 3.30

2+10 %

50 %40 %

1.91 → 2.10

Over 2,5+5 %

53 %43 %

1.94 → 2.04

Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 16/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mardin 1969

Antalyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Antalyaspor (4–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mardin 1969

Antalyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mardin 1969

Antalyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mardin 1969	Antalyaspor
Points	1	3
xPoints	0.8	0.7
xG per match	0.44	1.2
xGA per match	0.68	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.52
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.54

Playing style	Mardin 1969	Antalyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.47	0.28
Field tilt	0.52	0.51
xT per match	1	0.56
xTA per match	0.61	0.65
Won balls, offensive half	13	16
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.78
Passes per match	390	397
Passes against per match	346	256
Switches of play per match	26.5	32.9
Long balls per match	22	39

Set pieces	Mardin 1969	Antalyaspor
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6.1	3.9
Corners against per match	6.1	4.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.83	0.2

Other	Mardin 1969	Antalyaspor
Throw-in control	0.76	0.7

The goalkeepers	Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969)	Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor)
Saves	6	3
Save %	100%	50%
xG prevented	100%	8%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mardin 1969

Fixtures, form & tips

Antalyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Antalyaspor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mardin 1969 33%, draw 29%, Antalyaspor 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.