Istanbulspor vs Bodrumspor: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig15 August 202624°31 km/h

Läs på svenska

IstanbulsporPossession control

2–2

BodrumsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Istanbulspor (38%)

1 · Istanbulspor 38%X 31%31% Bodrumspor · 2

38%

31%

Analysis: Istanbulspor – Bodrumspor

Sofia Andersson · 15 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Two matches. That's all the head-to-head history we have between Istanbulspor and Bodrumspor since 2024, and it's been all in Bodrumspor's favor with two wins. Yet, this tiny sample holds little weight compared to the swirling numbers of current form and expected goals. Istanbulspor enters this clash with a slight model lean, boasting a 38% win probability compared to Bodrumspor's 31%. The analysis paints a picture of a tightly contested match, yet with Istanbulspor nudging ahead.

Istanbulspor's expected goals (xG) of 1.33 against Bodrumspor's 1.15 suggests a marginally more potent attacking setup, though neither side is tearing defenses apart. With both teams favoring possession control styles, the match could see a tactical battle rather than a goal fest. The most likely scorelines reflect this, with a 1-1 draw predicted at 13% and a 1-0 win for Istanbulspor at 11%. The over 2.5 goals likelihood sits at 45%, pointing to a cautious lean towards the under.

Bodrumspor may have had the upper hand in past meetings, but Istanbulspor presents a compelling case this time around, buoyed by a better xPoint (0.8 to 0.7) and a more efficient xG per match rate (0.73 to 0.36). Yet, the match will be far from a walkover. Bodrumspor edges Istanbulspor with xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, suggesting they could capitalize on quick transitions.

Istanbulspor, with their possession game and home advantage, is the side with a slight edge, albeit small. The model's evaluation, coupled with a 38% win probability, presents a betting opportunity at odds of 2.62 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet – but with no expected value edge, it's more a punt than a guarantee. Expect a tight contest, with a 1-0 victory for Istanbulspor as the most likely outcome, but don't be shocked if Bodrumspor snatch a point.

Istanbulspor

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #15xP/match #15Points #20

Key players

Ömer Faruk DuymazFxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Dijlan AydinCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.05
Ozcan SahanRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01

Bodrumspor

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #12xP/match #17Points #16

Key players

Rodrigo Rivas GonzálezFxG 0.29 · xT 0.06
Gokhan AkkanCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Juan Cruz ArguelloRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Istanbulspor 38% · Draw 31% · Bodrumspor 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IstanbulsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,44fair 11,24-16 %

Miss

Match prediction: Istanbulspor – Bodrumspor

Predicted score matrix

Bodrumspor →

Istanbulspor →

0–08.8%

0–19.3%

0–25.5%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.8%

1–113.2%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.4%

2–18.5%

2–24.9%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.3%

3–13.8%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,33–1,15

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.75

Over 2,545%

@1.94

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Istanbulspor or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Istanbulspor or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz to score24%
Mustafa Erdilman to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Istanbulspor38% probability@2.67BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
1 · Istanbulspor38% probability@2.67BetssonEV+2%reference odds
1 · Istanbulspor38% probability@2.67NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Istanbulspor	X	2 · Bodrumspor
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.67	3.19	2.47
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.67	3.19	2.47
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.67	3.19	2.47

Odds updated 15 Aug, 15:35

Odds movement

1+2 %

38 %33 %

2.62 → 2.67

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.19 → 3.19

2-2 %

39 %34 %

2.52 → 2.47

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.94 → 1.94

Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Istanbulspor 0Draw 0Bodrumspor 2

Goals: 0–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Istanbulspor

Bodrumspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Istanbulspor (0–3)

Bodrumspor (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Istanbulspor

Bodrumspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Istanbulspor

Bodrumspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Istanbulspor	Bodrumspor
Points	0	0
xPoints	0.8	0.7
xG per match	0.73	0.36
xGA per match	1.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0

Playing style	Istanbulspor	Bodrumspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.54	0.29
xT per match	0.66	0.75
xTA per match	0.52	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	26	36
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	7	15
Pass completion %	0.75	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.7
Passes per match	297	277
Passes against per match	362	426
Switches of play per match	23	21.1
Long balls per match	34	51

Set pieces	Istanbulspor	Bodrumspor
xG from free kicks	0.32	0
Corners per match	2.9	5
Corners against per match	0.96	3
xG per corner	0.03	0
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.33

Other	Istanbulspor	Bodrumspor
Throw-in control	0.69	0.8

The goalkeepers	Alp Tutar (Istanbulspor)	Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)
Saves	3	5
Save %	50%	71%
xG prevented	9%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Istanbulspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bodrumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Istanbulspor vs Bodrumspor according to our model?

The model gives Istanbulspor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istanbulspor 38%, draw 31%, Bodrumspor 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.