Alanyaspor vs Göztepe: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig13 September 202629°9 km/h

Läs på svenska

AlanyasporLow block & direct

GöztepeLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Alanyaspor (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.85 (+2 %)

1 · Alanyaspor 42%X 28%30% Göztepe · 2

42%

28%

30%

Analysis: Alanyaspor – Göztepe

Oscar Nilsson · 8 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Alanyaspor's recent dominance over Göztepe in their head-to-head clashes is telling, with two wins and two draws since the start of 2023. However, with only four encounters, this is a small sample size. The hosts have a slight edge in terms of points and expected points this season, reflecting a better overall performance compared to their visitors. Yet the expected goals (xG) story complicates the narrative: Göztepe has managed to generate more threat in their matches, averaging 1.7 xG compared to Alanyaspor's 0.8.

Both teams are stuck with leaky defenses and direct playing styles, which could lead to an unpredictable flow of the game. Göztepe's recent form is concerning, with three consecutive losses, hinting at potential vulnerabilities. Alanyaspor, with their modest goal-scoring and goal-conceding patterns, might just have the edge, especially given their ability to keep Göztepe winless in their recent meetings.

The predictive model gives Alanyaspor a 42% chance of victory, ahead of Göztepe's 30% and a draw at 28%. The most probable scorelines hover around tight margins—1-1 being the likeliest at 13%, followed by a 1-0 win for the hosts at 11%. This is consistent with the modest xG numbers and evenly split both teams to score probability at 50%. An outright goal fest seems unlikely, with the over 2.5 goals possibility sitting at just 45%.

Considering these factors, a 1-1 draw seems a reasonable prediction, but with Alanyaspor's slight edge and Göztepe's poor form, a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts is plausible. If you're looking for value in the betting market, consider Alanyaspor to win at odds of 2.60 with BetHard. This angle capitalizes on both Göztepe's struggles and the hosts’ slight historical advantage.

Alanyaspor

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #17xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Florent HadergjonajRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.31
Gaius MakoutaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Baran GezekFxG 0.00 · xT -0.01

Göztepe

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #18xT #12xP/match #11Points #17

Key players

André Henrique da Silva MartinsFxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
Juan Santos da SilvaLWxG 0.77 · xT 0.11
Mohamed Amine CherniLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Alanyaspor – Göztepe

Predicted score matrix

Göztepe →

Alanyaspor →

0–08.8%

0–18.9%

0–25.1%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.2%

1–113.1%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.9%

2–18.7%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.6%

3–14.0%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,37–1,10

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.85EV+2%

Over 2,545%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Alanyaspor or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Alanyaspor or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals55%
İzzet Çelik to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
İzzet Çelik to score18%
Nicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.555% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
2 · Göztepe30% probability@3.38PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Alanyaspor	X	2 · Göztepe
Betfair Exchange	2.16	3.30	2.94
Betsafe	2.10	3.35	3.30
Betsson	2.10	3.35	3.30
Nordicbet	2.10	3.35	3.30
Paddy Power	2.38	3.10	2.75
Pinnacle	2.16	3.38	EV+ 1% 3.38

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

1-1 %

46 %41 %

2.19 → 2.16

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.38 → 3.38

2+2 %

31 %26 %

3.32 → 3.38

Over 2,5+1 %

51 %46 %

1.97 → 1.99

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Alanyaspor 2Draw 2Göztepe 0

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Goztepe have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Alanyaspor

Göztepe

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Alanyaspor (4–3)

Göztepe (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Alanyaspor

Göztepe

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Alanyaspor

Göztepe

The teams in numbers

Performance	Alanyaspor	Göztepe
Points	7	1
xPoints	5.6	4.9
xG per match	0.8	1.7
xGA per match	1.1	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.48

Playing style	Alanyaspor	Göztepe
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.36
Field tilt	0.36	0.37
xT per match	0.61	0.83
xTA per match	0.99	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	21	36
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.14	0.25
Entries into the box per match	7	13
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.71	0.61
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.59
Passes per match	239	197
Passes against per match	464	341
Switches of play per match	16.5	16.5
Long balls per match	33	27

Set pieces	Alanyaspor	Göztepe
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	5.1	5.9
Corners against per match	4.1	4.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.56

Other	Alanyaspor	Göztepe
Throw-in control	0.68	0.74

The goalkeepers	Paulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti (Alanyaspor)	Luka Gugeshashvili (Göztepe)
Saves	17	9
Save %	85%	45%
xG prevented	68%	21%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Alanyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Göztepe

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Alanyaspor vs Göztepe according to our model?

The model gives Alanyaspor a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alanyaspor 42%, draw 28%, Göztepe 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.