Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig13 September 202621°0,5 mm27 km/h

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GalatasarayPossession & high press

KocaelisporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Galatasaray (77%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.05 (+4 %)

1 · Galatasaray 77%X 15%8% Kocaelispor · 2

77%

15%

Analysis: Galatasaray – Kocaelispor

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The stark 77% chance of a home victory for Galatasaray sets the stage for this Süper Lig clash. Their attacking prowess is backed by an impressive expected goals figure of 2.61, compared to Kocaelispor's modest 0.80. Both teams come in on a three-match winning streak, but the hosts' superior xPoints and xG metrics underscore their dominance, making them the clear favorites.

Despite Kocaelispor's efforts to control possession, their vulnerabilities are magnified against Galatasaray's high press. The head-to-head record, with only two matches, offers little weight against the home team's formidable home win rate of 78% over 36 matches. While Kocaelispor's recent form mirrors Galatasaray's, their xGA of 1.4 suggests a defense that could easily unravel under pressure.

Bookmakers have set the over/under at 2.5 goals with a 66% chance of crossing that line, indicating a tilt towards a high-scoring affair. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0 further emphasize the home side's attacking edge. With a 15% chance of a draw, Kocaelispor's odds of 8% for an upset seem long indeed.

Galatasaray

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Victor OsimhenFxG 1.39 · xT 0.09
Yunus AkgunRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.67
Roland SallaiRWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.17

Kocaelispor

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #10xP/match #10Points #3

Key players

Florian AyéFxG 0.19 · xT 0.01
Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi AgyeiFxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
Massadio HaïdaraLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Galatasaray – Kocaelispor

Predicted score matrix

Kocaelispor →

Galatasaray →

0–03.5%

0–12.5%

0–21.1%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.5%

1–17.1%

1–22.8%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.3%

2–19.0%

2–23.6%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.8%

3–17.8%

3–23.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–011.9%

4+–19.5%

4+–23.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.3-010%
3.2-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,61–0,80

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.64

Over 2,566%

@1.53EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Galatasaray to win77%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Galatasaray to win77%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Gabriel Davi Gomes Sara to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Gabriel Davi Gomes Sara to score42%
Manuel Luís da Silva Cafumana to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.526% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.526% probability@4.05BetssonEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.526% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Galatasaray	X	2 · Kocaelispor
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 1% 1.30	5.90	8.60
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 1.34	4.60	9.10
Betsson	EV+ 4% 1.34	4.60	9.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 1.34	4.60	9.10
Pinnacle	1.26	5.75	11.11

Odds updated 11 Sept, 07:38

Odds movement

1-1 %

77 %72 %

1.26 → 1.26

X+3 %

19 %14 %

5.61 → 5.75

2+1 %

11 %6 %

11.03 → 11.11

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Galatasaray 0Draw 1Kocaelispor 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Galatasaray come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Kocaelispor come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Galatasaray win 78% of their home matches all-time (36 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Galatasaray

Kocaelispor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Galatasaray (12–6)

Kocaelispor (5–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Galatasaray

Kocaelispor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Galatasaray

Kocaelispor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Galatasaray	Kocaelispor
Points	10	9
xPoints	7.8	4.9
xG per match	2.6	0.89
xGA per match	0.89	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.03	0.18

Playing style	Galatasaray	Kocaelispor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.66	0.5
xT per match	1.8	0.93
xTA per match	0.46	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	29	25
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.21
Entries into the box per match	19	9
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.75
Passes per match	442	374
Passes against per match	290	414
Switches of play per match	38.3	23.9
Long balls per match	38	27

Set pieces	Galatasaray	Kocaelispor
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.04
Corners per match	5.3	3.3
Corners against per match	2.8	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.36	0.47

Other	Galatasaray	Kocaelispor
Throw-in control	0.87	0.64

The goalkeepers	Ugurcan Cakir (Galatasaray)	Serhat Öztaşdelen (Kocaelispor)
Saves	7	8
Save %	70%	80%
xG prevented	37%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Galatasaray

Fixtures, form & tips

Kocaelispor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor according to our model?

The model gives Galatasaray a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Galatasaray 77%, draw 15%, Kocaelispor 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.