Eyüpspor vs Rizespor: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig13 September 2026

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EyüpsporLow block & direct

RizesporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Rizespor (42%)Best value by the model: 1 · Eyüpspor @ 6.71 (+100 %)

1 · Eyüpspor 30%X 28%42% Rizespor · 2

30%

28%

42%

Analysis: Eyüpspor – Rizespor

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Rizespor's 42% win probability stands out as the decisive factor in their clash with Eyüpspor—a matchup underscored by a small head-to-head sample where Rizespor leads 3-1. However, the real story may lie in the apparent discrepancy between Eyüpspor's home odds and their actual 30% win probability. At odds of 4.1 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the hosts present a tempting value proposition for the bold.

Despite the visitors' stronger metrics in points, expected points, and both xG and xGA per match, the model still points towards a tight struggle. Rizespor's high-press possession game might clash effectively against Eyüpspor's low defence and direct style. The most likely scoreline suggests a 1-1 draw at 13%, marginally ahead of a 0-1 Rizespor win at 10%. This reflects the slight edge the visitors hold in expected goals: 1.34 to Eyüpspor's 1.19.

The odds of over 2.5 goals sit at 46%, with both teams to score at 52%, indicating a cautious lean towards a low-scoring affair. As Rizespor pushes their tactical advantage, Eyüpspor may yet offer value for those wagering on an upset. Keep an eye on that 22% edge on home odds: it could be the sharpest angle for Saturday's encounter.

Eyüpspor

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #8xT #18xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

Ahmed AbdullahiFxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
Zak Kennedy JulesCBxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
Charles-André Raux YaoCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Rizespor

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #5xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Attila MocsiCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
Mithat PalaRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
Qazim LaçiCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Eyüpspor – Rizespor

Predicted score matrix

Rizespor →

Eyüpspor →

0–08.3%

0–110.3%

0–27.2%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.1%

1–113.1%

1–28.5%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.6%

2–17.5%

2–25.1%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.2%

3–13.0%

3–22.0%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,19–1,34

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@2.15EV+15%

Over 2,546%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rizespor or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rizespor or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Casper Michael Højer Nielsen to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Mateusz Jacek Łęgowski to score16%
Samet Akaydin to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Eyüpspor30% probability@6.71PinnacleEV+100%reference odds
X · Draw28% probability@5.07PinnacleEV+43%reference odds
1 · Eyüpspor30% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eyüpspor	X	2 · Rizespor
Betsafe	EV+ 22% 4.10	3.35	1.88
Betsson	EV+ 22% 4.10	3.35	1.88
Nordicbet	EV+ 22% 4.10	3.35	1.88
Pinnacle	EV+ 100% 6.71	EV+ 43% 5.07	1.36

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:40

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Rizespor win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 1.53 to 1.36 (−11%).

1+30 %

21 %11 %

5.16 → 6.71

X+18 %

25 %15 %

4.30 → 5.07

2-11 %

70 %60 %

1.53 → 1.36

Over 2,5-10 %

58 %48 %

1.86 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Eyüpspor 1Draw 0Rizespor 3

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eyüpspor

Rizespor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eyüpspor (2–6)

Rizespor (3–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eyüpspor

Rizespor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eyüpspor

Rizespor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eyüpspor	Rizespor
Points	3	6
xPoints	3.5	6.4
xG per match	0.61	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	0.78
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.01	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.14

Playing style	Eyüpspor	Rizespor
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.32
Field tilt	0.37	0.68
xT per match	0.44	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	20	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.25
Entries into the box per match	6	14
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.75
Passes per match	340	429
Passes against per match	384	315
Switches of play per match	32.1	39.8
Long balls per match	33	42

Set pieces	Eyüpspor	Rizespor
xG from free kicks	0.28	0.04
Corners per match	2.5	6.3
Corners against per match	5	4.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.7	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.41

Other	Eyüpspor	Rizespor
Throw-in control	0.7	0.84

The goalkeepers	Horațiu Alexandru Moldovan (Eyüpspor)	Yahia Fofana (Rizespor)
Saves	12	9
Save %	67%	82%
xG prevented	48%	75%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eyüpspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Rizespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eyüpspor vs Rizespor according to our model?

The model gives Rizespor a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eyüpspor 30%, draw 28%, Rizespor 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.