01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Samsunspor to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Süper Lig22°17 km/h
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SamsunsporPossession controlvs
ÇorumLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Samsunspor (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.96 (+6 %)
Samsunspor – Çorum · Süper Lig
1 · Samsunspor 46%X 27%27% Çorum · 2
46%
27%
27%
Analysis: Samsunspor – Çorum
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Samsunspor's possession-based control will be pivotal as they host Çorum in this Süper Lig fixture. Despite the hosts' inclination to dominate the ball, their xG per match stands at a modest 1.1, mirroring Çorum's. However, the latter's defensive frailties are evident with an xGA per match of 1.8, a notable advantage for Samsunspor, whose xGA is lower at 1.4.
The match seems to tilt slightly in favor of the hosts, with the model giving Samsunspor a 46% win probability compared to Çorum's 27%. The most probable scoreline, 1-1, reflects both teams' current scoring and defensive metrics. Yet, Samsunspor's capacity to generate xG quickly after regaining possession (0.18) could be decisive against Çorum's low defensive block combined with direct play.
Head-to-head data is sparse, providing limited insight, so current form and expected goals become crucial. Despite similar xG, the defensive edge leans towards Samsunspor, which might just tip the balance in their favor for a narrow victory. A 1-0 or 2-1 outcome seems plausible, albeit with low confidence given the tight margins.
The over/under market presents a compelling opportunity. With just a 46% chance for over 2.5 goals, and an attractive EV+ angle for under 2.5 at odds of 1.86 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the value rests with the under. The model rates this outcome at 54%, suggesting a solid 1% edge. For those who prefer a focus on defensive solidity and lower-scoring games, backing under 2.5 goals aligns with both the match profile and value proposition.
SamsunsporForm WDWLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #8xP/match #16Points #13
Key players
- Marius MouandilmadjiFxG 0.77 · xT 0.00
- Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
- Fatih KayaFxG 0.43 · xT -0.02
ÇorumForm DLLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #6xP/match #14Points #14
Key players
- Alexandros KyziridisLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.39
- Cengiz UnderRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.30
- Jesús Andrés Ramírez DíazFxG 0.39 · xT -0.05
Match prediction: Samsunspor – Çorum
Predicted score matrix
Çorum →
Samsunspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–18.6%
0–24.9%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.1%
1–113.0%
1–27.0%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.0%
2–18.9%
2–24.9%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.8%
3–14.2%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,41–1,10
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.96EV+6%
Over 2,546%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Samsunspor to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Marius Mouandilmadji to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Marius Mouandilmadji to score30%
- Antoine Makoumbou to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.554% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@1.95Betfair ExchangeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Samsunspor46% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Samsunspor | X | 2 · Çorum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.99 | 3.60 | EV+ 1% 3.80 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 3% 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Betsson | EV+ 3% 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 3% 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 2.26 | 3.20 | 3.47 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39
Odds movement
1+1 %
45 %40 %
2.23 → 2.26
X+5 %
33 %28 %
3.05 → 3.20
2-4 %
30 %25 %
3.61 → 3.47
Over 2,5-2 %
52 %47 %
1.93 → 1.89
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Samsunspor
Çorum
Samsunspor (5–6)
Çorum (7–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Samsunspor
Çorum
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Samsunspor
Çorum
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Samsunspor | Çorum |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4 | 4.3 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Samsunspor | Çorum |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 426 | 440 |
| Passes against per match | 332 | 340 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.4 | 44 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 47 |
| Set pieces | Samsunspor | Çorum |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 7.1 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| Other | Samsunspor | Çorum |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor) | Marcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro (Çorum) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 16 |
| Save % | 77% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 73% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Samsunspor vs Çorum according to our model?
The model gives Samsunspor a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Samsunspor 46%, draw 27%, Çorum 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.