Amedspor vs Konyaspor: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig17 October 202618°2,5 mm15 km/h

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AmedsporPossession control

1–0

KonyasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Amedspor (54%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.05 (+20 %)

1 · Amedspor 54%X 28%19% Konyaspor · 2

54%

28%

19%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Amedspor vs Konyaspor (Süper Lig, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Amedspor win 54%, draw 28%, Konyaspor win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Amedspor 1.79, Konyaspor 0.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Amedspor or draw 81%, Konyaspor or draw 46%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Amedspor – Konyaspor

Marcus Johansson · 17 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Amedspor's tactical approach of possession control might just find its perfect match against Konyaspor, who display a similar strategy. Yet, despite their shared style, the two sides have navigated the early season with contrasting fortunes. The hosts are not only unbeaten in their last five league engagements but also boast a superior xG of 1.6 per game, compared to the visitors' 1.0. This stark difference hints at Amed's sharper attacking edge, which could prove decisive in a game where both teams aim to dominate the ball.

While Konyaspor finds itself on the back foot with a meager five points and an xGA of 1.2 per match, Amed's defensive solidity shines through, allowing just 0.93 xGA. These numbers suggest that, even if possession is shared, the hosts are better equipped to translate control into tangible opportunities. The expected goals model backs this up, favoring Amed with a 1.79 to 0.96 margin.

With the probability of a home win pinned at 54%, Amed is clearly the model's favorite. Interestingly, the most probable scorelines — 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0 — suggest a game likely to hover around the 2.5-goal mark. The chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring is set at 52%, slightly tilting the scales towards a more open affair. However, the expected rain could dampen the attacking fluidity, subtly pushing the needle towards a more conservative outcome.

For the sharp punter, there's value to be seized. Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet each offer odds of 1.88 for a home victory, aligning with the model's 54% probability. This marginal edge makes backing Amedspor a compelling choice in this matchup, particularly given their current form and the tactical landscape.

Amedspor

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #14xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Diaa Sabi'aCAMxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
Ermal KrasniqiRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Lumbardh DellovaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08

Konyaspor

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #4xP/match #11Points #16

Key players

Yhoan Many AndzouanaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
Deniz TurucRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.30
Chidozie Collins AwaziemCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Amedspor 54% · Draw 28% · Konyaspor 19%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Amed SFKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,82fair 6,60+19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - KonyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,04fair 22,95-17 %

Miss

Match prediction: Amedspor – Konyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Konyaspor →

Amedspor →

0–06.7%

0–15.8%

0–22.9%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.1%

1–111.3%

1–25.2%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.3%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.2%

3–15.9%

3–22.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.1%

4+–14.0%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,79–0,96

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@1.77

Over 2,552%

@2.14EV+11%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Amedspor to win54%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Amedspor to win54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Diaa Sabi'a to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Diaa Sabi'a to score25%
Marko Jevtović to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.530% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
Over 3.530% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
Over 4.514% probability@7.99BetsafeEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Amedspor	X	2 · Konyaspor
Betsafe	1.82	3.45	4.20
LeoVegas	1.83	3.45	4.10
Nordicbet	1.82	3.45	4.20
Pinnacle	EV+ 2% 1.89	3.55	4.37

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 1.92 to 1.77 (−8%).

1-2 %

55 %45 %

1.93 → 1.89

X-2 %

31 %21 %

3.63 → 3.55

2+14 %

28 %18 %

3.82 → 4.37

Over 2,5+12 %

54 %44 %

1.90 → 2.12

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Amed are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Amedspor

Konyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Amedspor (17–9)

Konyaspor (4–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Amedspor

Konyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Amedspor

Konyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Amedspor	Konyaspor
Points	14	5
xPoints	13.3	8.9
xG per match	1.6	1
xGA per match	0.93	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.24

Playing style	Amedspor	Konyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.39
xT per match	0.74	1.1
xTA per match	0.65	1
Won balls, offensive half	19	21
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	7	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	318	340
Passes against per match	373	366
Switches of play per match	21.6	42.1
Long balls per match	28	49

Set pieces	Amedspor	Konyaspor
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.04
Corners per match	3.9	2.6
Corners against per match	4.6	5.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.61
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.53

Other	Amedspor	Konyaspor
Throw-in control	0.73	0.71

The goalkeepers	Alban-Marc Lafont (Amedspor)	Bahadır Han Güngördü (Konyaspor)
Saves	19	12
Save %	68%	92%
xG prevented	38%	91%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Amedspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Konyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Amedspor vs Konyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Amedspor a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Amedspor 54%, draw 28%, Konyaspor 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Amedspor vs Konyaspor?

The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Amedspor and 0.96 for Konyaspor, 2.75 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Amedspor or draw (1X) 81%, Konyaspor or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.