İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig18 October 202612°0,3 mm18 km/h

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İstanbul BaşakşehirPossession control

2–1

GaziantepPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir (59%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+30 %)

1 · İstanbul Başakşehir 59%X 23%18% Gaziantep · 2

59%

23%

18%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep (Süper Lig, Sunday, 18 October 2026): İstanbul Başakşehir win 59%, draw 23%, Gaziantep win 18%. Expected goals (xG): İstanbul Başakşehir 1.80, Gaziantep 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: İstanbul Başakşehir or draw 82%, Gaziantep or draw 41%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: İstanbul Başakşehir – Gaziantep

Sofia Andersson · 17 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

İstanbul Başakşehir's mastery over Gaziantep since 2023 tells a decisive story. Winning three out of their last four encounters, Başakşehir's dominance in this head-to-head matchup is clear. With a 59% probability of victory according to the model, the hosts are formidable at home, and the numbers back it up. Başakşehir's xG per match sits at 1.6 compared to Gaziantep's 1.0, highlighting the home side's attacking prowess.

The expected goals tally for this fixture stands at 1.80 for the hosts and 1.04 for the visitors, reflecting Başakşehir's superior offensive metrics. Both teams, however, share a penchant for possession-based play, which might lead to a tactical stalemate at times. Despite that, the predicted most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 indicate a narrow edge for Başakşehir, with the 1-0 win sitting just behind the draw in likelihood.

When it comes to defensive solidity, Başakşehir again hold the upper hand. Their xGA of 1.4 is slightly better than the visitors' 1.6, suggesting they might edge their opponents out in crucial defensive moments. This balance of attacking force and defensive caution is further underscored by their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, which favours them at 0.2 compared to Gaziantep's 0.19.

For those looking at betting angles, there's a compelling case for the under 2.5 goals market. Despite the model showing a 54% chance for over 2.5 goals, the value lies in the under, available at 2.29 odds with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 46%, suggesting a 5% edge. For the more adventurous, under 0.5 goals at 17.0 odds with Betsafe offers another 5% edge, albeit with a much lower probability of 6%. Keep an eye on the tactical interplay, but expect Başakşehir to edge it.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Form DLLWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #8xP/match #6Points #11

Key players

Ousseynou BaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Christopher OperiLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Jerome OpokuCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08

Gaziantep

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #12xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Deian SorescuRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.29
Halil DervisogluFxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Trivante Vincent StewartFxG 0.47 · xT 0.01

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: İstanbul Başakşehir 59% · Draw 23% · Gaziantep 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Başakşehir FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,86fair 6,35-39 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Gaziantep FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,96fair 18,96-42 %

Miss

Match prediction: İstanbul Başakşehir – Gaziantep

Predicted score matrix

Gaziantep →

İstanbul Başakşehir →

0–06.2%

0–15.8%

0–23.2%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.2%

1–111.3%

1–25.7%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.5%

2–19.8%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.7%

3–15.9%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.9%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,80–1,04

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.61EV+20%

Over 2,554%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

İstanbul Başakşehir to win59%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

İstanbul Başakşehir to win59%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Eldor Shomurodov to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Eldor Shomurodov to score35%
Ulrich Sidoine Meleke to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.56% probability@21.00BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@21.00NordicbetEV+30%reference odds
Under 2.546% probability@2.61BetsafeEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · İstanbul Başakşehir	X	2 · Gaziantep
Betsafe	1.62	4.15	4.70
LeoVegas	1.64	4.20	4.40
Nordicbet	1.62	4.15	4.70
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 1.69	4.31	4.62

Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

61 %56 %

1.65 → 1.69

X+4 %

25 %20 %

4.16 → 4.31

2-1 %

22 %17 %

4.69 → 4.62

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

İstanbul Başakşehir 3Draw 0Gaziantep 1

Goals: 9–6 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

İstanbul Başakşehir

Gaziantep

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

İstanbul Başakşehir (10–11)

Gaziantep (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Gaziantep

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Gaziantep

The teams in numbers

Performance	İstanbul Başakşehir	Gaziantep
Points	8	8
xPoints	10.4	7.5
xG per match	1.6	1
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.23

Playing style	İstanbul Başakşehir	Gaziantep
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.57	0.45
xT per match	0.99	0.89
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.2
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	8	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.72
Passes per match	404	353
Passes against per match	366	352
Switches of play per match	38.8	40.5
Long balls per match	42	45

Set pieces	İstanbul Başakşehir	Gaziantep
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	4.3	4.3
Corners against per match	3.9	4.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.68

Other	İstanbul Başakşehir	Gaziantep
Throw-in control	0.79	0.74

The goalkeepers	Muhammed Sengezer (İstanbul Başakşehir)	Kacper Tobiasz (Gaziantep)
Saves	17	17
Save %	85%	63%
xG prevented	56%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

İstanbul Başakşehir

Fixtures, form & tips

Gaziantep

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep according to our model?

The model gives İstanbul Başakşehir a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: İstanbul Başakşehir 59%, draw 23%, Gaziantep 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gaziantep?

The model expects 1.80 goals (xG) for İstanbul Başakşehir and 1.04 for Gaziantep, 2.84 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

İstanbul Başakşehir or draw (1X) 82%, Gaziantep or draw (X2) 41% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.