01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw (X2)63%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Süper Lig13°0,5 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
KasımpaşaLow block & direct4–1
SamsunsporPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Samsunspor (36%)
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor · Süper Lig
1 · Kasımpaşa 32%X 32%36% Samsunspor · 2
32%
32%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor (Süper Lig, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Kasımpaşa win 32%, draw 32%, Samsunspor win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Kasımpaşa 1.27, Samsunspor 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Kasımpaşa or draw 64%, Samsunspor or draw 68%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In the limited head-to-head encounters since 2023, Samsunspor holds a slight edge over Kasimpasa with two wins to the hosts' one. However, this small sample bears less weight than the current form and underlying numbers, which paint a different picture. Despite Samsunspor's recent five-game losing streak, the model narrowly favors them with a 36% chance of victory compared to Kasimpasa's 32%.
Kasimpasa, currently enjoying a better points tally and expected points tally, shows a marginal advantage in the expected goals department, with 1.27 to Samsunspor's 1.23. Yet, both teams have similar expected goals against, each conceding an average of 1.3 per match, suggesting a tight affair. With the expected goals closely aligned, the most probable scoreline of 1-1 at 13% reflects this balance, tipping towards a low-scoring draw.
The expected weather conditions, including 2.4 mm of rain, further bolster the impression of a restrained encounter, likely suppressing goal opportunities. Even the over 2.5 goals probability at 45% suggests caution, leaning toward a more conservative approach. The hosts lean on a low defence and direct style, while Samsunspor's possession control might struggle to break through on a slick pitch.
The sharpest angle here is the value on a draw at odds of 3.35 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, each offering a 6% edge according to the model. While not flashy, this bet aligns with the data-driven expectation of a 32% draw probability. Betting on the stalemate not only sits comfortably with the numbers but also offers a prudent path to potential returns.
KasımpaşaForm DDWDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #16xP/match #7Points #10
Key players
- Kerem DemirbayCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
- Claudio WinckRWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
- Adrian Dawid BenedyczakFxG 0.38 · xT 0.05
SamsunsporForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #5xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Marius MouandilmadjiFxG 0.52 · xT 0.06
- Emre KilincLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
- Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Final score
4 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% · Draw 32% · Samsunspor 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SamsunsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,61fair 12,98-18 %
MissMatch prediction: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor
Predicted score matrix
Samsunspor →
Kasımpaşa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–19.8%
0–26.2%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.1%
1–113.2%
1–27.9%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.1%
2–25.0%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.4%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,27–1,23
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.80
Over 2,545%
@2.12
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw (X2)63%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Saikuba Jarju to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Adrian Dawid Benedyczak to score20%
- Antoine Makoumbou to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Samsunspor36% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Samsunspor36% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Samsunspor36% probability@2.95PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kasımpaşa | X | 2 · Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.25 | EV+ 5% 3.30 | EV+ 10% 3.05 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | EV+ 6% 3.35 | EV+ 4% 2.88 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | EV+ 5% 3.30 | EV+ 10% 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | EV+ 1% 3.18 | EV+ 7% 2.95 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:16
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 3.52 to 3.18 (−10%).
1+6 %
41 %36 %
2.46 → 2.61
X-10 %
31 %26 %
3.52 → 3.18
2+7 %
35 %30 %
2.75 → 2.95
Over 2,5+6 %
49 %44 %
2.00 → 2.12
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesKasımpaşa 1Draw 1Samsunspor 2
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- Samsunspor have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
Kasımpaşa (8–8)
Samsunspor (6–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 4 |
| xPoints | 10.3 | 6.5 |
| xG per match | 1 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 273 | 452 |
| Passes against per match | 443 | 333 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.6 | 34.8 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.3 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.66 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| Other | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Gianniotis (Kasımpaşa) | Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 29 |
| Save % | 77% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Çorum – Çaykur Rizespor16 October 2026
- Gençlerbirliği – Galatasaray17 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- Amedspor – Konyaspor17 October 2026
- Erzurumspor – Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- İstanbul Başakşehir – Gaziantep18 October 2026
- Kocaelispor – Göztepe18 October 2026
- Trabzonspor – Besiktas JK19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor according to our model?
The model gives Samsunspor a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kasımpaşa 32%, draw 32%, Samsunspor 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Kasımpaşa and 1.23 for Samsunspor, 2.49 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kasımpaşa or draw (1X) 64%, Samsunspor or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 68%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.