01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Süper Lig
Läs på svenska
KocaelisporPossession control1–2
GöztepeLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Kocaelispor (38%)
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe · Süper Lig
1 · Kocaelispor 38%X 29%32% Göztepe · 2
38%
29%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe (Süper Lig, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Kocaelispor win 38%, draw 29%, Göztepe win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Kocaelispor 1.49, Göztepe 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Kocaelispor or draw 68%, Göztepe or draw 62%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Kocaelispor – Göztepe
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Kocaelispor's approach to controlling possession will take center stage against Göztepe's direct defensive setup. The home side, armed with a possession-oriented style, has managed to convert their territorial dominance into tangible results, boasting a points tally of 12 compared to the visitors' 6. Yet, a deeper dive into the xPoints reveals a curious discrepancy: Kocaelispor's 8.5 xPoints trails Göztepe's 12.0, suggesting that the visitors may have been unlucky thus far.
The expected goals reflect a similar tension, with Göztepe edging out Kocaelispor 2.1 to 1.1 per match. Despite the hosts' superior point collection, the visitors generate more opportunities, potentially turning the tide if they convert their chances efficiently. However, Kocaelispor's capacity to create danger immediately after winning the ball — 0.36 xG within 8 seconds compared to Göztepe's 0.3 — could prove pivotal, especially against a side inclined to sit deep.
Both teams are likely to score, with a model prediction of 57% for both finding the net. The prevalence of draws in their recent encounters (two draws since 2023) hints at a closely contested affair, although the sample size is too small to overshadow current form and statistical expectations. The model leans towards a Kocaelispor win at 38%, with 1-1 being the most probable scoreline followed closely by a 2-1 victory for the hosts.
For punters seeking value, the odds at 2.95 from Betsafe and Nordicbet (13% edge) and 2.8 from LeoVegas (7% edge) present a striking opportunity for Kocaelispor backers. While not a guarantee, the overlap between model confidence and bookmaker pricing suggests a calculated punt on the home side could yield dividends. The over 2.5 goals market, at 53%, hints at potential volatility, but the numbers subtly favor a tight contest where Kocaelispor's possession might just edge Göztepe's directness.
KocaelisporForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #10xP/match #12Points #8
Key players
- Manuel Luís da Silva CafumanaCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
- Berkan KutluCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
- Anfernee Jamal DijksteelRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
GöztepeForm LLDDW
League ranking xG #3xGA #15xT #13xP/match #5Points #15
Key players
- Rhaldney Norberto Simião GomesCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
- André Henrique da Silva MartinsFxG 0.59 · xT 0.06
- Novatus MiroshiCDMxG 0.30 · xT 0.06
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kocaelispor 38% · Draw 29% · Göztepe 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KocaelisporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,25fair 8,55+20 %
MissMatchresultat - GöztepeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,04fair 10,74-16 %
MissMatch prediction: Kocaelispor – Göztepe
Predicted score matrix
Göztepe →
Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.6%
0–25.3%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.6%
1–112.2%
1–27.8%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.8%
2–25.8%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.4%
3–22.9%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,49–1,33
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.82
Over 2,553%
@2.07EV+7%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score26%
- Alex Matos to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Kocaelispor38% probability@3.01PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Over 4.515% probability@7.27BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- Over 4.515% probability@7.27NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kocaelispor | X | 2 · Göztepe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.42 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 15% 3.01 | 3.18 | 2.57 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.82 (−7%).
1+2 %
37 %27 %
2.94 → 3.01
X-9 %
34 %24 %
3.49 → 3.18
2+10 %
44 %34 %
2.34 → 2.57
Over 2,5+11 %
55 %45 %
1.87 → 2.07
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesKocaelispor 0Draw 2Göztepe 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
Kocaelispor (8–6)
Göztepe (15–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kocaelispor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 6 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 12 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Kocaelispor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 344 | 212 |
| Passes against per match | 410 | 346 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.2 | 17.4 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Kocaelispor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| Other | Kocaelispor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Serhat Öztaşdelen (Kocaelispor) | Arda Ozcimen (Göztepe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 10 |
| Save % | 83% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Çorum – Çaykur Rizespor16 October 2026
- Gençlerbirliği – Galatasaray17 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- Amedspor – Konyaspor17 October 2026
- Erzurumspor – Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- İstanbul Başakşehir – Gaziantep18 October 2026
- Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor18 October 2026
- Trabzonspor – Besiktas JK19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kocaelispor vs Göztepe according to our model?
The model gives Kocaelispor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kocaelispor 38%, draw 29%, Göztepe 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kocaelispor vs Göztepe?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Kocaelispor and 1.33 for Göztepe, 2.82 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kocaelispor or draw (1X) 68%, Göztepe or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.