01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Besiktas JK or draw (X2)62%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Süper Lig18°8 km/h
Läs på svenska
TrabzonsporPossession control2–0
Besiktas JKPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Besiktas JK (42%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.35 (+19 %)
Trabzonspor vs Besiktas JK · Süper Lig
1 · Trabzonspor 32%X 26%42% Besiktas JK · 2
32%
26%
42%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Trabzonspor vs Besiktas JK (Süper Lig, Monday, 19 October 2026): Trabzonspor win 32%, draw 26%, Besiktas JK win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Trabzonspor 1.43, Besiktas JK 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Trabzonspor or draw 58%, Besiktas JK or draw 68%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Trabzonspor – Besiktas JK
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Trabzonspor’s home win rate stands at a robust 60% from a 57-game sample, but the model gives them just a 32% shot against Beşiktaş, who hold the edge in several metrics. The visitors have picked up more points and have stronger xPoints and xG numbers, suggesting they’re slightly undervalued by the market. The head-to-head record is split evenly in four post-2023 meetings, offering little decisive insight into the current form of either team.
The expected goals are tight, with Trabzonspor at 1.43 and Beşiktaş at 1.40, hinting at a close contest. The model’s lean toward Beşiktaş aligns with their superior defensive numbers, as they allow just 0.66 xGA per match compared to the hosts' 1.3. Despite Trabzonspor’s possession-oriented style, Beşiktaş’s high pressing could disrupt their rhythm, making a narrow away win plausible.
Bookmakers might have overlooked the potential for fewer goals; the market favors over 2.5 goals at 54%, yet the model sees value in the under. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer under 2.5 at odds of 2.42, presenting a 12% edge for cautious bettors. For an even bolder play, consider under 1.5 goals at 4.95 with Betsafe, exploiting a 10% edge. Expect a tight 1-1 or possibly 1-2 outcome.
TrabzonsporForm LWLWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #9xP/match #9Points #5
Key players
- Mustafa EskihellacLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
- Stefan SavicCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Ernest MuciRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
Besiktas JKForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #2xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Emirhan TopcuCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Orkun KökçüLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.20
- Tiago Emanuel Embaló DjalóCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Final score
2 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Trabzonspor 32% · Draw 26% · Besiktas JK 42%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TrabzonsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,65fair 9,22-39 %
MissMatchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,71fair 9,63-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Trabzonspor – Besiktas JK
Predicted score matrix
Besiktas JK →
Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.9%
0–25.8%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.1%
1–112.2%
1–28.3%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.5%
2–25.9%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.0%
3–22.8%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,43–1,40
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.52EV+17%
Over 2,554%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Besiktas JK or draw (X2)62%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Ernest Muçi to score22%
- Salih Özcan to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.522% probability@5.35BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- Under 1.522% probability@5.35NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
- Under 0.56% probability@19.00BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Trabzonspor | X | 2 · Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.65 | EV+ 6% 2.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.60 | EV+ 6% 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.65 | EV+ 6% 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | EV+ 1% 3.85 | EV+ 10% 2.63 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Trabzonspor win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.82 to 2.51 (−11%).
1-11 %
41 %31 %
2.82 → 2.51
X-2 %
30 %20 %
3.94 → 3.85
2+17 %
44 %34 %
2.24 → 2.63
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesTrabzonspor 1Draw 2Besiktas JK 1
Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- Trabzonspor win 60% of their home matches all-time (57 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Trabzonspor
Besiktas JK
Trabzonspor (16–5)
Besiktas JK (16–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Trabzonspor
Besiktas JK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Trabzonspor
Besiktas JK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Trabzonspor | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 15 |
| xPoints | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.66 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Trabzonspor | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.76 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.51 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 464 |
| Passes against per match | 311 | 258 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.5 | 39.6 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Trabzonspor | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 7.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| Other | Trabzonspor | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | André Onana Onana (Trabzonspor) | Alexander Nübel (Besiktas JK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 16 |
| Save % | 86% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- Amedspor – Konyaspor17 October 2026
- Erzurumspor – Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- İstanbul Başakşehir – Gaziantep18 October 2026
- Kocaelispor – Göztepe18 October 2026
- Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Trabzonspor vs Besiktas JK according to our model?
The model gives Besiktas JK a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trabzonspor 32%, draw 26%, Besiktas JK 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Trabzonspor vs Besiktas JK?
The model expects 1.43 goals (xG) for Trabzonspor and 1.40 for Besiktas JK, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Trabzonspor or draw (1X) 58%, Besiktas JK or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.