Kortrijk vs Beveren: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Belgian Pro League20 September 2026Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk18°3,0 mm22 km/h

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KortrijkCounter-attacks & crosses

BeverenBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Beveren (47%)

1 · Kortrijk 27%X 27%47% Beveren · 2

27%

47%

Analysis: Kortrijk – Beveren

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Beveren's recent form advantage over Kortrijk is hard to ignore. Kortrijk's streak of six consecutive losses is a stark contrast to Beveren's steady nine points from recent matches. The hosts are struggling to find their footing, and there's little in the numbers to suggest a turnaround is imminent.

Kortrijk's defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. This vulnerability, combined with Beveren's more balanced and physical approach, suggests that the visitors are well-equipped to exploit any defensive lapses. The expected goals tally further underscores this, with Beveren's 1.55 xG per match significantly outpacing Kortrijk's 1.05. Even with the expected rainfall potentially dampening attacking ambition, these figures are compelling.

The probability model leans significantly towards an away victory, assigning Beveren a 47% chance of winning. While the most likely scoreline is a draw at 1-1, the model's lean towards a 0-1 or 1-2 result for Beveren cannot be ignored. With both teams having an xGA of 2.0, defensive gaps could still lead to goals, yet the model suggests only a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals, reflecting the anticipated tightness of the encounter.

For those seeking value, odds of 2.6 on a Beveren victory with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 22% edge over the model's 47% probability. It's an enticing prospect for bettors, with the numbers indicating that an away win is not only possible but likely. In this contest, Beveren's form and statistical edge make them the clear choice.

Kortrijk

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #17xT #17xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Goduine KoyalipouFxG 0.30 · xT 0.03
Harrison Alexander Murray-CampbellCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Shandre CampbellRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.03

Beveren

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #12xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Jearl MargarithaFxG 0.34 · xT 0.19
Moïse Elohim Victoire KaboréLWxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Chris-Emmanuel Dikwama LokesaLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Kortrijk – Beveren

Predicted score matrix

Beveren →

Kortrijk →

0–07.8%

0–111.2%

0–29.0%

0–34.6%

0–4+2.5%

1–07.4%

1–112.4%

1–29.4%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.1%

2–16.3%

2–24.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.4%

3–01.4%

3–12.2%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,05–1,55

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.14EV+10%

Over 2,548%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Beveren to win47%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Beveren to win47%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Lennart Mertens to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Lennart Mertens to score27%
Sieben Dewaele to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Beveren47% probability@2.67PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
2 · Beveren47% probability@2.58BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
2 · Beveren47% probability@2.58BetssonEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kortrijk	X	2 · Beveren
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	2.58	3.40	EV+ 21% 2.58
Betsson	2.58	3.40	EV+ 21% 2.58
Nordicbet	2.58	3.40	EV+ 21% 2.58
Pinnacle	2.54	3.51	EV+ 25% 2.67

Odds updated 19 Sept, 10:20

Odds movement

1-2 %

39 %34 %

2.58 → 2.54

X+2 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.51

20 %

39 %34 %

2.66 → 2.67

Over 2,50 %

58 %53 %

1.73 → 1.72

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

KV Kortrijk have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kortrijk

Beveren

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kortrijk (1–15)

Beveren (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kortrijk

Beveren

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kortrijk

Beveren

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kortrijk	Beveren
Points	0	9
xPoints	5.1	7
xG per match	0.73	1.3
xGA per match	2	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.46

Playing style	Kortrijk	Beveren
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.42
xT per match	0.7	1
xTA per match	1.3	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	19	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.2
Entries into the box per match	7	13
Entries into the box against	16	19
Pass completion %	0.73	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.7
Passes per match	320	396
Passes against per match	401	425
Switches of play per match	23.8	28.8
Long balls per match	32	40

Set pieces	Kortrijk	Beveren
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	3.7	4.6
Corners against per match	5.7	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.38

Other	Kortrijk	Beveren
Throw-in control	0.73	0.79

The goalkeepers	Marko Ilić (Kortrijk)	Johannes Schenk (Beveren)
Saves	19	23
Save %	61%	70%
xG prevented	29%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kortrijk

Fixtures, form & tips

Beveren

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kortrijk vs Beveren according to our model?

The model gives Beveren a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kortrijk 27%, draw 27%, Beveren 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.