Sint-Truiden vs Westerlo: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Belgian Pro League20 September 2026Stayen, Sint-Truiden18°1,5 mm21 km/h

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Sint-TruidenPossession & high press

WesterloCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Sint-Truiden (59%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.13 (+1 %)

1 · Sint-Truiden 59%X 23%18% Westerlo · 2

59%

23%

18%

Analysis: Sint-Truiden – Westerlo

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Sint-Truiden's strong record against Westerlo gives them the upper hand in this matchup, despite a narrow edge in season points. They're historically dominant in this fixture, winning five out of the last eight encounters. The model favors the hosts with a 59% likelihood of victory, aligning with their stylistic advantage and expected goals dominance of 2.20 compared to Westerlo's 1.35.

Looking closer, the expected goals suggest a match tilting towards Sint-Truiden. Their higher xG per match and possession-based strategy should outmaneuver Westerlo's counter-attacking approach. The expected model probabilities align well with recent form, supporting a likely 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline. The head-to-head record, while informative, remains a small sample, so current form and xG metrics weigh more heavily.

Goals are expected to flow, as indicated by a 69% estimate for over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance for both teams to find the net. This aligns with the average of 3.1 goals per meeting in this fixture. Given the attacking profiles and historical scoring patterns, a high-scoring affair seems probable.

While the statistics point to a home win, the value proposition remains neutral at 1.7 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, despite the model rating it at 59%. There's no clear edge here, but the home side's dominance and superior xG figures offer confidence in backing Sint-Truiden to come out on top.

Ending on the sharpest betting angle, opting for over 2.5 goals might be the savvier play given the match dynamics. With a 69% likelihood and historical trends, this market offers a compelling narrative backed by both form and fixture history.

Sint-Truiden

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #12xT #1xP/match #12Points #10

Key players

Samed BaždarFxG 0.71 · xT 0.18
Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.31
Ilias SebaouiLWxG 0.54 · xT 0.22

Westerlo

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #8xP/match #11Points #13

Key players

Cameron Mark CongreveRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.26
Norman Jaquy Bassette Van AckerFxG 0.50 · xT -0.03
Isa SakamotoCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Sint-Truiden – Westerlo

Predicted score matrix

Westerlo →

Sint-Truiden →

0–03.1%

0–13.6%

0–22.6%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.5%

1–06.1%

1–18.8%

1–25.8%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.9%

2–19.4%

2–26.3%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.3%

3–05.1%

3–16.9%

3–24.6%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.0%

4+–04.6%

4+–16.3%

4+–24.3%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.1-19%
3.2-07%
4.3-17%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

2,20–1,35

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

218%

321%

419%

5+28%

Under 2,531%

@2.76

Over 2,569%

@1.43

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sint-Truiden to win59%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sint-Truiden to win59%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Ryotaro Araki to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Ryotaro Araki to score26%
Ibrahim Cheick Junior Fofana to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.547% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
1 · Sint-Truiden59% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
1 · Sint-Truiden59% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sint-Truiden	X	2 · Westerlo
Betsafe	EV+ 0% 1.70	4.00	4.40
Betsson	EV+ 0% 1.70	4.00	4.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 0% 1.70	4.00	4.40
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 1.70	3.92	4.87

Odds updated 19 Sept, 14:37

Odds movement

1+3 %

59 %54 %

1.65 → 1.70

X-1 %

27 %22 %

3.97 → 3.92

2-2 %

22 %17 %

4.95 → 4.87

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Sint-Truiden 5Draw 2Westerlo 1

Goals: 16–9 (⌀ 3,1)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sint-Truidense VV dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sint-Truiden

Westerlo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sint-Truiden (12–10)

Westerlo (13–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sint-Truiden

Westerlo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sint-Truiden

Westerlo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sint-Truiden	Westerlo
Points	8	7
xPoints	7.7	8
xG per match	2	1.4
xGA per match	1.8	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.23

Playing style	Sint-Truiden	Westerlo
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.59	0.49
xT per match	1.8	1.1
xTA per match	0.89	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.25
Entries into the box per match	18	12
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	454	386
Passes against per match	332	371
Switches of play per match	40.3	23.7
Long balls per match	48	27

Set pieces	Sint-Truiden	Westerlo
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.06
Corners per match	4.8	3.7
Corners against per match	4.2	6.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.72	0.53

Other	Sint-Truiden	Westerlo
Throw-in control	0.78	0.64

The goalkeepers	Leo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden)	Andreas Jungdal (Westerlo)
Saves	21	19
Save %	70%	54%
xG prevented	39%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sint-Truiden

Fixtures, form & tips

Westerlo

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sint-Truiden vs Westerlo according to our model?

The model gives Sint-Truiden a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sint-Truiden 59%, draw 23%, Westerlo 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.