Anderlecht vs Genk: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Belgian Pro League6 September 2026Lotto Park, Bryssel20°13 km/h

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AnderlechtPossession & high press

0–0

GenkPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Anderlecht (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Genk @ 3.07 (+10 %)

1 · Anderlecht 39%X 25%36% Genk · 2

39%

25%

36%

Analysis: Anderlecht – Genk

Oscar Nilsson · 5 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A clash of styles is set to unfold as Anderlecht hosts Genk, with both teams relying on possession but differing in approach. Anderlecht’s high press will test Genk’s possession control strategy. The model gives a slight edge to the hosts with a 39% win probability, yet Genk aren’t far behind at 36%. This suggests a tight contest, and the numbers point to a narrow margin for either side. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (11%) reflects the finely balanced nature of this fixture.

Despite Anderlecht’s historic home advantage, winning 58% of their matches in their own stadium, Genk has been somewhat of a bogey team. In their last 10 encounters, Genk have triumphed six times compared to Anderlecht’s two. However, this sample does weigh less than current form and expected goals metrics, given the teams' evolving dynamics since 2023.

In terms of expected goals, Anderlecht slightly edges Genk with 1.53 against 1.49. However, Genk’s higher xG per match at 2.1 suggests they might create more significant chances, which aligns with their slight points edge over Anderlecht this season. Despite this, the overall expected goals figures indicate a closely contested game, likely to have goals from both sides, underscored by a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

From a betting perspective, the value leans towards an away win with odds of 2.82 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a 1% edge based on the model’s 36% probability. Although Anderlecht’s slight favor in the model cannot be dismissed, the statistical edge for Genk combined with attractive odds makes for a compelling case. If there’s a bet to be had, it’s riding on the visitors to potentially snatch a narrow victory.

Anderlecht

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #1xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Ali MaamarRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.48
Tristan DegreefLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.35
Giulian BianconeCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.36

Genk

Form DLWDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #8xP/match #3Points #7

Key players

Rafiu Adekunle DurosinmiFxG 0.98 · xT -0.03
Bryan HeynenCMxG 0.28 · xT 0.21
Joris KayembeLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Anderlecht 39% · Draw 25% · Genk 36%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - RC GenkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,54fair 8,42-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AnderlechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,58fair 7,97-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Anderlecht – Genk

Predicted score matrix

Genk →

Anderlecht →

0–05.2%

0–16.9%

0–25.4%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.4%

1–07.1%

1–111.4%

1–28.3%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.5%

2–26.3%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.9%

3–14.3%

3–23.2%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,53–1,49

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.32

Over 2,558%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Anderlecht or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Anderlecht or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Thorgan Ganael Francis Hazard to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Konstantinos Karetsas to score28%
Marco Kana to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Genk36% probability@3.07PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
2 · Genk36% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Genk36% probability@3.00BetssonEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Anderlecht	X	2 · Genk
Betfair Exchange	1.41	1.13	1.41
Betsafe	2.20	3.55	EV+ 8% 3.00
Betsson	2.20	3.55	EV+ 8% 3.00
Nordicbet	2.20	3.55	EV+ 8% 3.00
Pinnacle	2.25	3.73	EV+ 10% 3.07

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

43 %38 %

2.37 → 2.25

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.57 → 3.73

2+8 %

36 %31 %

2.85 → 3.07

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

10 matches

Anderlecht 2Draw 2Genk 6

Goals: 9–16 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

KRC Genk dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 2 in 10 meetings.
RSC Anderlecht win 58% of their home matches all-time (62 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Anderlecht

Genk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Anderlecht (3–5)

Genk (12–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Anderlecht

Genk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Anderlecht

Genk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Anderlecht	Genk
Points	6	7
xPoints	6.1	7.5
xG per match	1.8	2.1
xGA per match	0.91	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.11

Playing style	Anderlecht	Genk
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.79	0.53
xT per match	1.8	1.2
xTA per match	0.76	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	31	28
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.2
Entries into the box per match	27	14
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.76
Passes per match	480	425
Passes against per match	273	349
Switches of play per match	25.4	40.1
Long balls per match	29	47

Set pieces	Anderlecht	Genk
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.04
Corners per match	8	4.5
Corners against per match	2	6
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.11	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.77	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0.54

Other	Anderlecht	Genk
Throw-in control	0.75	0.79

The goalkeepers	Colin Coosemans (Anderlecht)	Lucca Brughmans (Genk)
Saves	7	7
Save %	58%	50%
xG prevented	58%	21%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Anderlecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Genk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Anderlecht vs Genk according to our model?

The model gives Anderlecht a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Anderlecht 39%, draw 25%, Genk 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.