01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bodø/Glimt to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Champions League7°3,8 mm41 km/h
Läs på svenska
Bodø/GlimtPossession & high pressvs
Borussia DortmundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Bodø/Glimt (50%)
Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund · Champions League
1 · Bodø/Glimt 50%X 24%25% Borussia Dortmund · 2
50%
24%
25%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund (Champions League, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Bodø/Glimt win 50%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Bodø/Glimt 1.68, Borussia Dortmund 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Bodø/Glimt or draw 75%, Borussia Dortmund or draw 50%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Bodø/Glimt's attacking unit carries a quiet menace that Borussia Dortmund will find challenging to subdue. With the model assigning a 50% win probability to the hosts, there's a clear lean towards the resilience and form of the Norwegian side. Though the head-to-head record is scant with just one previous draw since 2022, it’s the current performance metrics that paint a richer picture. Bodø/Glimt’s xPoints of 5.4 significantly outshine Dortmund’s 2.4, underscoring their sharper edge in this contest.
Dortmund, traditionally a powerhouse, finds itself up against a solid wall in Bodø/Glimt's high-press and possession style. Despite Dortmund's superior xG per match at 2.9, their defense also looks comparatively solid with an xGA of 1.3, better than Bodø/Glimt's 1.7, suggesting the hosts may need to work hard to break them down. The expected goals tilt in Bodø/Glimt's favor at 1.68, hinting at their potential to seize the scoring initiative in their home fortress. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 12%, but a narrow 2-1 victory for Bodø/Glimt follows closely at 10%.
The weather forecast of rain could suppress the scoring, but with an over 2.5 goals likelihood of 55%, it remains in the realm of possibility. The odds-on offer present a compelling opportunity, especially with Betsafe and Nordicbet offering home win odds of 3.3, delivering a significant value edge given the model’s 50% rating. The potential for a home triumph is further bolstered by LeoVegas' odds of 3.05.
Expect a tight affair where the home side’s strategic nous and form could tip the scales. For those looking for value, the odds on Bodø/Glimt to secure a win offer a rich vein to mine, reflecting both statistical insight and bookmaker generosity.
Bodø/GlimtForm LWWWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #32xT #18xP/match #27Points #2
Key players
- Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.33
- Patrick BergCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
- Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.88 · xT -0.01
Borussia DortmundForm LLWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #20xT #13xP/match #7Points #22
Key players
- Serhou GuirassyFxG 0.46 · xT 0.08
- Yan CoutoRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.25
- Julian RyersonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
Predicted score matrix
Borussia Dortmund →
Bodø/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.4%
0–24.0%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.0%
1–111.6%
1–26.8%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.5%
2–25.7%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.4%
3–15.3%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,68–1,21
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@3.03EV+36%
Over 2,555%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bodø/Glimt to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jens Petter Hauge to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jens Petter Hauge to score26%
- Daniel Jonathan Svensson to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bodø/Glimt50% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+66%reference odds
- 1 · Bodø/Glimt50% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+66%reference odds
- 1 · Bodø/Glimt50% probability@3.22PinnacleEV+62%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bodø/Glimt | X | 2 · Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 66% 3.30 | 3.95 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 54% 3.05 | 4.00 | 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 66% 3.30 | 3.95 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 62% 3.22 | EV+ 1% 4.17 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 12 Oct, 18:17
Odds movement
10 %
32 %27 %
3.22 → 3.22
X0 %
26 %21 %
4.17 → 4.17
20 %
50 %45 %
2.05 → 2.05
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesBodø/Glimt 0Draw 1Borussia Dortmund 0
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Champions League data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bodø/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
Bodø/Glimt (9–8)
Borussia Dortmund (3–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bodø/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bodø/Glimt
Borussia Dortmund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bodø/Glimt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 3 |
| xPoints | 5.4 | 2.4 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.52 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.05 |
| Playing style | Bodø/Glimt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.73 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 497 | 467 |
| Passes against per match | 381 | 420 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.6 | 26.7 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Bodø/Glimt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 9.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 7.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.29 |
| Other | Bodø/Glimt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt) | Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 6 |
| Save % | 83% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 79% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Arsenal – Lille13 October 2026
- Inter – Club Brugge13 October 2026
- Lens – Sporting CP13 October 2026
- Viking – Bayern München13 October 2026
- Galatasaray – FC Barcelona13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United13 October 2026
- RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
- Sabah – Slavia Praha13 October 2026
- Villarreal – Napoli13 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund according to our model?
The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodø/Glimt 50%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 1.68 goals (xG) for Bodø/Glimt and 1.21 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Bodø/Glimt or draw (1X) 75%, Borussia Dortmund or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.