LASK vs Liverpool Prediction: Away win 43% (14 Oct 2026)

Champions League14 October 202613°2,1 mm16 km/h

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LASKLow block & direct

LiverpoolPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Liverpool (43%)Best value by the model: 1 · LASK @ 10.50 (+215 %)

1 · LASK 30%X 27%43% Liverpool · 2

30%

27%

43%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for LASK vs Liverpool (Champions League, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): LASK win 30%, draw 27%, Liverpool win 43%. Expected goals (xG): LASK 1.42, Liverpool 1.94. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. Double chance: LASK or draw 57%, Liverpool or draw 70%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.

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Analysis: LASK – Liverpool

Erik Lindberg · 12 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

LASK and Liverpool face off with current form and expected goals as the key guide. The visitors come in with a slight edge according to the model, with a 43% chance of taking the win. Yet, LASK's promising stats can't be ignored, boasting an impressive xG of 2.4 per match compared to Liverpool's 1.4.

Despite the model's lean towards Liverpool, the hosts present a compelling case. LASK's direct playing style could exploit any gaps in Liverpool's high-pressing system, especially considering their superior xPoints of 5.4 over the visitors' 1.8. Interestingly, the expected goals against metrics show strength in both teams' defenses, with Liverpool slightly edging the hosts here. However, the expected goals within 8 seconds of winning possession hint at Liverpool's potential to create quick opportunities, boasting a higher 0.46 compared to LASK's 0.27.

The weather factor—13.2°C with 2.1 mm of rain—might dampen the overall scoring but won't significantly alter the 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net. Most likely scorelines suggest a narrow victory for Liverpool at 1-2, but a 1-1 draw, a 10% probability, is equally on the cards.

For those seeking value, the standout angle lies with LASK at odds of 10.5 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, which presents a lucrative 215% edge. Even at 8.5 with LeoVegas, the 155% edge is worth considering. While the Reds hold a slight advantage, the odds on the home side offer a tempting proposition for those willing to take on a bit of risk.

LASK

Form LWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #17xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Samuel AdeniranFxG 1.10 · xT 0.05
Moses UsorFxG 0.24 · xT 0.21
Sascha HorvathLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.18

Liverpool

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #33xGA #9xT #21xP/match #16Points #21

Key players

Andrew RobertsonLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
Hugo EkitikéFxG 0.55 · xT 0.11
Dominik SzoboszlaiCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: LASK – Liverpool

Predicted score matrix

Liverpool →

LASK →

0–03.8%

0–16.5%

0–26.5%

0–34.2%

0–4+3.2%

1–04.7%

1–19.9%

1–29.3%

1–36.0%

1–4+4.5%

2–03.5%

2–16.8%

2–26.6%

2–34.2%

2–4+3.2%

3–01.7%

3–13.2%

3–23.1%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.2-27%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,42–1,94

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@3.08EV+7%

Over 2,565%

@1.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Liverpool or draw (X2)72%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Liverpool or draw (X2)72%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Alexander Isak to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Christoph Lang to score30%
Virgil van Dijk to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · LASK30% probability@10.50BetsafeEV+215%reference odds
1 · LASK30% probability@10.50NordicbetEV+215%reference odds
1 · LASK30% probability@9.66PinnacleEV+190%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · LASK	X	2 · Liverpool
Betsafe	EV+ 215% 10.50	EV+ 51% 5.60	1.28
LeoVegas	EV+ 155% 8.50	EV+ 68% 6.25	1.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 215% 10.50	EV+ 51% 5.60	1.28
Pinnacle	EV+ 190% 9.66	EV+ 76% 6.53	1.26

Odds updated 12 Oct, 19:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

12 %7 %

9.60 → 9.66

X+1 %

17 %12 %

6.49 → 6.53

20 %

78 %73 %

1.27 → 1.26

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

LASK

Liverpool

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

LASK (5–5)

Liverpool (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

LASK

Liverpool

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

LASK

Liverpool

The teams in numbers

Performance	LASK	Liverpool
Points	3	3
xPoints	5.4	1.8
xG per match	2.4	1.4
xGA per match	1	0.63
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0

Playing style	LASK	Liverpool
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.56	0.52
xT per match	1.3	1.1
xTA per match	0.74	0.48
Won balls, offensive half	22	41
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.23
Entries into the box per match	18	18
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	362	357
Passes against per match	466	461
Switches of play per match	28.3	22.8
Long balls per match	31	34

Set pieces	LASK	Liverpool
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5.1	7.3
Corners against per match	6.3	5.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.37	0.4

Other	LASK	Liverpool
Throw-in control	0.79	0.74

The goalkeepers	Lukas Jungwirth (LASK)	Alisson Becker (Liverpool)
Saves	8	3
Save %	62%	75%
xG prevented	62%	70%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

LASK

Fixtures, form & tips

Liverpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins LASK vs Liverpool according to our model?

The model gives Liverpool a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: LASK 30%, draw 27%, Liverpool 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in LASK vs Liverpool?

The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for LASK and 1.94 for Liverpool, 3.35 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

LASK or draw (1X) 57%, Liverpool or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.