Croatian HNL20°6 km/h

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    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo ZagrebPossession & high press
    3–2
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva ZagrebLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Dinamo Zagreb (84%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.94 (+9 %)

    Dinamo Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb · Croatian HNL

    1 · Dinamo Zagreb 84%X 11%5% Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2

    Analysis: Dinamo Zagreb – Lokomotiva Zagreb

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Dinamo Zagreb's stark dominance in head-to-head encounters against Lokomotiva Zagreb is clear, holding four wins in their last eight meetings. However, it's worth noting that the visitors have managed two victories and two draws in the same period, suggesting that while Dinamo is the stronger side, Lokomotiva occasionally punches above its weight. This match-up has averaged a robust 3.1 goals per meeting, indicating that fireworks can be expected when these two face off.

    The hosts are firmly in the driver's seat this season, with 13 points compared to Lokomotiva's 7. Furthermore, expected goals data underscores Dinamo's superiority: 2.72 xG to Lokomotiva's 0.66. With a possession-heavy style coupled with a high press, Dinamo's strategy is likely to stifle Lokomotiva’s direct approach. The hosts' defense, conceding only 0.67 xGA per match, should comfortably handle the visitors' attack that averages 0.95 xG per game. This defensive solidity makes Lokomotiva’s task even harder.

    Predictive models tilt heavily in favor of Dinamo, awarding them an 84% chance to win. The most likely outcomes are 2-0 and 3-0, with both suggesting a comfortable home victory. The over 2.5 goals market leans strongly at 66%, reflecting the likelihood of multiple goals based on historical data and current form.

    Despite the overwhelming odds, betting value is scarce. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all price a Dinamo win at 1.19, which aligns precisely with the 84% model probability, offering no edge. However, for those eyeing total goals, the model's inclination towards a multi-goal affair could be fruitful. With Lokomotiva’s defensive vulnerabilities, a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline feels like a plausible endgame, keeping the over 2.5 goals bet an intriguing angle for punters.

    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    Form WWDWL
    League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #1Points #4
    Key players
    • Dion Drena BeljoFxG 1.30 · xT 0.09
    • Paul Bismarck TabinasRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.23
    • Miha ZajcCAMxG 0.39 · xT 0.10
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #9xP/match #8Points #7
    Key players
    • Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
    • Marijan ČabrajaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.28
    • Mirko MarićFxG 0.62 · xT -0.02
    Final score
    3 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Dinamo Zagreb 84% · Draw 11% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 5%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Dinamo ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 2,99fair 4,17-28 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 29,79fair 73,75-60 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Dinamo Zagreb – Lokomotiva Zagreb

    Predicted score matrix

    Lokomotiva Zagreb →
    Dinamo Zagreb →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.6%
    0–12.1%
    0–20.7%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–09.0%
    1–16.3%
    1–22.0%
    1–30.4%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–012.6%
    2–18.3%
    2–22.8%
    2–30.6%
    2–4+0.1%
    3
    3–011.4%
    3–17.5%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–015.0%
    4+–19.9%
    4+–23.3%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-013%
    2. 2.3-011%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.4-08%
    Expected goals
    2,72–0,66
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    @3.05EV+5%
    Over 2,566%
    @1.32

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win84%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    71%

    Fair odds

    1.40

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win84%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Miha Zajc to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Miha Zajc to score36%
    • Matija Subotić to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.556% probability@1.94PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 3.556% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • Under 3.556% probability@1.88BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Dinamo ZagrebX2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb
    Betsafe
    EV+ 0%
    1.19    		6.6010.50
    Betsson
    EV+ 0%
    1.19    		6.6010.50
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 0%
    1.19    		6.6010.50
    Pinnacle1.177.4613.05

    Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    81 %76 %

    1.15 → 1.17

    X0 %
    16 %11 %

    7.44 → 7.46

    20 %
    11 %6 %

    13.01 → 13.05

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Dinamo Zagreb 4Draw 2Lokomotiva Zagreb 2
    Goals: 18–7 (⌀ 3,1)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.
    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb win 76% of their home matches all-time (58 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Lokomotiva Zagreb
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Dinamo Zagreb (14–7)
    Lokomotiva Zagreb (9–13)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Stjepan Radeljić: 245 passningar, xT 0.71RadeljićSergi Domínguez Viloria: 238 passningar, xT 0.59ViloriaScott Fraser McKenna: 192 passningar, xT 0.44McKennaJosip Mišić: 179 passningar, xT 0.51MišićNiko Galešić: 176 passningar, xT 0.36GalešićOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 152 passningar, xT 0.76VinlöfMoris Valinčić: 152 passningar, xT 0.75ValinčićMiha Zajc: 139 passningar, xT -0.01ZajcLukas Kacavenda: 103 passningar, xT 0.22KacavendaIvan Nevistić: 87 passningar, xT 0.06NevistićPaul Bismarck Tabinas: 82 passningar, xT 0.3Tabinas
    Lokomotiva Zagreb
    Thanasis Triantafyllou: 162 passningar, xT 0.4TriantafyllouJosip Posavec: 130 passningar, xT 0.03PosavecKristijan Cabrajic: 113 passningar, xT 0.43CabrajicMatija Subotić: 112 passningar, xT 0.1SubotićMarijan Čabraja: 99 passningar, xT 0.55ČabrajaFran Karačić: 74 passningar, xT 0.34KaračićMarko Vešović: 48 passningar, xT 0.07VešovićDušan Vuković: 43 passningar, xT 0.23VukovićIvan Katić: 42 passningar, xT -0.03KatićMarcel Lorber: 36 passningar, xT 0.12LorberJakov-Anton Vasilj: 35 passningar, xT 0.05Vasilj
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Stjepan Radeljić: 245 passningar, xT 0.71RadeljićSergi Domínguez Viloria: 238 passningar, xT 0.59ViloriaScott Fraser McKenna: 192 passningar, xT 0.44McKennaJosip Mišić: 179 passningar, xT 0.51MišićNiko Galešić: 176 passningar, xT 0.36GalešićOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 152 passningar, xT 0.76VinlöfMoris Valinčić: 152 passningar, xT 0.75ValinčićMiha Zajc: 139 passningar, xT -0.01ZajcLukas Kacavenda: 103 passningar, xT 0.22KacavendaIvan Nevistić: 87 passningar, xT 0.06NevistićPaul Bismarck Tabinas: 82 passningar, xT 0.3Tabinas
    Lokomotiva Zagreb
    Thanasis Triantafyllou: 162 passningar, xT 0.4TriantafyllouJosip Posavec: 130 passningar, xT 0.03PosavecKristijan Cabrajic: 113 passningar, xT 0.43CabrajicMatija Subotić: 112 passningar, xT 0.1SubotićMarijan Čabraja: 99 passningar, xT 0.55ČabrajaFran Karačić: 74 passningar, xT 0.34KaračićMarko Vešović: 48 passningar, xT 0.07VešovićDušan Vuković: 43 passningar, xT 0.23VukovićIvan Katić: 42 passningar, xT -0.03KatićMarcel Lorber: 36 passningar, xT 0.12LorberJakov-Anton Vasilj: 35 passningar, xT 0.05Vasilj

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDinamo ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    Points137
    xPoints12.57.5
    xG per match2.50.95
    xGA per match0.671.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.4
    Playing styleDinamo ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.790.29
    xT per match1.60.66
    xTA per match0.551.5
    Won balls, offensive half3121
    Pressing intensity0.20.24
    Pressing efficiency0.360.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.26
    Entries into the box per match198
    Entries into the box against518
    Pass completion %0.790.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.65
    Passes per match471248
    Passes against per match238379
    Switches of play per match34.523.7
    Long balls per match3231
    Set piecesDinamo ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    xG from free kicks0.120.03
    Corners per match7.84.3
    Corners against per match2.36.4
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.340.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.790.58
    OtherDinamo ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    Throw-in control0.70.62
    The goalkeepersDominik Kotarski (Dinamo Zagreb)Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb)
    Saves732
    Save %64%71%
    xG prevented36%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Lokomotiva Zagreb
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Dinamo Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb according to our model?

    The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 84% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dinamo Zagreb 84%, draw 11%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 5%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.