01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (X2)70%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Croatian HNL17°6 km/h
Läs på svenska
RudešPossession control2–2
Slaven BelupoLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Slaven Belupo (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.99 (+11 %)
Rudeš vs Slaven Belupo · Croatian HNL
1 · Rudeš 29%X 28%43% Slaven Belupo · 2
29%
28%
43%
Analysis: Rudeš – Slaven Belupo
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Slaven Belupo holds the upper hand as they travel to face Rudeš, which is reflected in the model probabilities favoring the visitors at 43%. With Rudeš riding a three-game losing streak, the momentum is decidedly against them. Their inclination towards possession control has yet to translate into actual results, struggling with an xG of just 0.62 per match. Meanwhile, Slaven's low defensive block and direct play have proven more effective, accumulating 6 points and a slightly better xG of 0.77.
The expected goals for both sides indicate a tight contest, with Slaven edging it at 1.34 to Rudeš's 1.10. Despite the statistical lean, the most likely scorelines suggest a narrow margin, highlighting a potential 1-1 draw at 13% or a slender 0-1 victory for the visitors at 11%. The over 2.5 goals chance sits at 44%, hinting that a low-scoring affair is possible, especially given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities.
A small head-to-head sample means we should weigh current form more heavily, where Slaven's comparative stability stands out. Rudeš's defensive frailties are pronounced, conceding an xGA of 2.2 per match. This presents an opportunity for Slaven's counterattacking style to exploit gaps, though their own xGA of 1.9 suggests they're not impervious either.
For bettors, there's clear value in backing a low-scoring outcome. With the model rating under 1.5 goals at 30%, and bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 3.6, a 7% edge is on the table. The numbers point to a cautious match where defenses might just have the final say.
RudešForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #10Points #9
Key players
- Cherno SahoFxG 0.12 · xT -0.01
- Jurica PoldrugačLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
- Vedran CeljakCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Slaven BelupoForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #8xP/match #9Points #8
Key players
- Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Alen GrgićRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
- Josip MitrovićLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rudeš 29% · Draw 28% · Slaven Belupo 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NK Rudes ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,92fair 16,46-34 %
MissMatchresultat - Slaven BelupoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,22fair 11,11-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Rudeš – Slaven Belupo
Predicted score matrix
Slaven Belupo →
Rudeš →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–111.3%
0–27.9%
0–33.5%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–09.2%
1–113.2%
1–28.6%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.3%
2–17.0%
2–24.7%
2–32.1%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.6%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,10–1,34
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.99EV+6%
Over 2,544%
@1.83
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (X2)70%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Josip Mitrović to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Josip Mitrović to score18%
- Vedran Celjak to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.556% probability@1.99PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- Under 1.530% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- Under 1.530% probability@3.60BetssonEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rudeš | X | 2 · Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Betsson | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | EV+ 2% 3.61 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 18 Sept, 11:37
Odds movement
1-5 %
28 %23 %
3.66 → 3.46
X-1 %
28 %23 %
3.63 → 3.61
2+7 %
51 %46 %
1.91 → 2.05
Over 2,5+4 %
55 %50 %
1.76 → 1.83
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- NK Rudes have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rudeš
Slaven Belupo
Rudeš (8–22)
Slaven Belupo (5–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rudeš
Slaven Belupo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rudeš
Slaven Belupo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rudeš | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 6.6 |
| xG per match | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Rudeš | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 275 | 253 |
| Passes against per match | 414 | 418 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.4 | 18.8 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Rudeš | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| Other | Rudeš | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Lovre Rogić (Rudeš) | Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 20 |
| Save % | 54% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 27% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rudeš vs Slaven Belupo according to our model?
The model gives Slaven Belupo a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rudeš 29%, draw 28%, Slaven Belupo 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.