Croatian HNL23°13 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    RijekaRijekaPossession & high press
    3–0
    Hajduk SplitHajduk SplitPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Rijeka (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hajduk Split @ 4.08 (+25 %)

    Rijeka vs Hajduk Split · Croatian HNL

    1 · Rijeka 40%X 29%31% Hajduk Split · 2

    Analysis: Rijeka – Hajduk Split

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The tension in this Croatian HNL clash is rooted in Rijeka's formidable home record against Hajduk Split's current win streak. The hosts have historically dominated at home, winning 65% of their matches, while the visitors are riding high after five straight league victories. Yet, the model slightly leans towards Rijeka with a 40% chance of victory. This tilt is reflected in the expected goals, where Rijeka edges out at 1.36 to Hajduk's 1.32, suggesting a marginal but crucial advantage.

    Despite Hajduk's recent form, the historical head-to-head is evenly balanced since 2023, with both sides claiming two victories each out of eight encounters. This small sample sizes these meetings and renders current form and expected goals more relevant. Rijeka’s ability to secure points at home weighs heavily in their favor, though Hajduk's consistent scoring streak in nine consecutive matches cannot be ignored.

    The most likely scoreline is predicted at 1-1, with a draw also looming large. The over 2.5 goals metric sits at 50%, suggesting an evenly balanced outlook between high- and low-scoring outcomes. However, both teams scoring at 55% hints at competitive action.

    RijekaRijeka
    Form LWDWD
    League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #5
    Key players
    • Niko JankovićLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
    • Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
    • Ante OrecRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.26
    Hajduk SplitHajduk Split
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #1
    Key players
    • Marko LivajaFxG 0.75 · xT 0.30
    • Dalisson de Almeida LeiteFxG 0.32 · xT 0.13
    • Rokas PukštasCDMxG 0.34 · xT 0.24
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Rijeka 40% · Draw 29% · Hajduk Split 31%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Hajduk SplitBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,51fair 10,98+14 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - HNK RijekaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,21fair 10,27-40 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Rijeka – Hajduk Split

    Predicted score matrix

    Hajduk Split →
    Rijeka →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–18.7%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–09.0%
    1–112.7%
    1–28.1%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.4%
    2–18.4%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,32
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.93
    Over 2,550%
    @1.88

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Rijeka or draw (1X)64%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.15

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Rijeka or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Jakov Puljić to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Michele Šego to score31%
    • Branko Pavić to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hajduk Split31% probability@4.08PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · Hajduk Split31% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • 2 · Hajduk Split31% probability@3.90BetssonEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RijekaX2 · Hajduk Split
    Betsafe1.883.30
    EV+ 20%
    3.90
    Betsson1.883.30
    EV+ 20%
    3.90
    Nordicbet1.883.30
    EV+ 20%
    3.90
    Pinnacle1.91
    EV+ 1%
    3.49
    EV+ 25%
    4.08

    Odds updated 20 Sept, 10:35

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    52 %42 %

    1.93 → 1.91

    X+3 %
    33 %23 %

    3.38 → 3.49

    2+6 %
    30 %20 %

    3.85 → 4.08

    Over 2,50 %
    55 %45 %

    1.88 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Rijeka 2Draw 4Hajduk Split 2
    Goals: 13–7 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Hajduk Split come into this round on 5 straight wins.
    • Hajduk Split have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    • HNK Rijeka win 65% of their home matches all-time (57 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rijeka
    Hajduk Split
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rijeka (10–7)
    Hajduk Split (16–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rijeka
    Ante Majstorović: 322 passningar, xT 0.66MajstorovićTiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas: 258 passningar, xT 0.81DantasAnel Husic: 252 passningar, xT 0.27HusicAnte Orec: 227 passningar, xT 0.98OrecJustas Lasickas: 184 passningar, xT 0.15LasickasBranko Pavić: 181 passningar, xT 0.31PavićIvan Ćubelić: 140 passningar, xT 0.09ĆubelićToni Fruk: 129 passningar, xT 1.03FrukNiko Janković: 93 passningar, xT -0.08JankovićSamuele Vignato: 91 passningar, xT 0.42VignatoAlfonso Daniel Barco del Solar: 73 passningar, xT 0.13Solar
    Hajduk Split
    Dario Marešić: 349 passningar, xT 0.43MarešićAdrion Pajaziti: 218 passningar, xT 0.25PajazitiRon Raçi: 218 passningar, xT 0.21RaçiMathieu Acapandié: 212 passningar, xT 0.23AcapandiéAlberto del Moral Saelices: 179 passningar, xT 0.1SaelicesŠimun Hrgović: 160 passningar, xT 0.8HrgovićToni Silić: 144 passningar, xT 0.14SilićAlec Van Hoorenbeeck: 117 passningar, xT 0.11HoorenbeeckDalisson de Almeida Leite: 82 passningar, xT 0.37LeiteRoko Gabric: 65 passningar, xT 0.03GabricKhalil Fayad: 64 passningar, xT 0.37Fayad
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rijeka
    Ante Majstorović: 322 passningar, xT 0.66MajstorovićTiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas: 258 passningar, xT 0.81DantasAnel Husic: 252 passningar, xT 0.27HusicAnte Orec: 227 passningar, xT 0.98OrecJustas Lasickas: 184 passningar, xT 0.15LasickasBranko Pavić: 181 passningar, xT 0.31PavićIvan Ćubelić: 140 passningar, xT 0.09ĆubelićToni Fruk: 129 passningar, xT 1.03FrukNiko Janković: 93 passningar, xT -0.08JankovićSamuele Vignato: 91 passningar, xT 0.42VignatoAlfonso Daniel Barco del Solar: 73 passningar, xT 0.13Solar
    Hajduk Split
    Dario Marešić: 349 passningar, xT 0.43MarešićAdrion Pajaziti: 218 passningar, xT 0.25PajazitiRon Raçi: 218 passningar, xT 0.21RaçiMathieu Acapandié: 212 passningar, xT 0.23AcapandiéAlberto del Moral Saelices: 179 passningar, xT 0.1SaelicesŠimun Hrgović: 160 passningar, xT 0.8HrgovićToni Silić: 144 passningar, xT 0.14SilićAlec Van Hoorenbeeck: 117 passningar, xT 0.11HoorenbeeckDalisson de Almeida Leite: 82 passningar, xT 0.37LeiteRoko Gabric: 65 passningar, xT 0.03GabricKhalil Fayad: 64 passningar, xT 0.37Fayad

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRijekaHajduk Split
    Points1116
    xPoints11.212.5
    xG per match1.91.8
    xGA per match0.580.63
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.10.08
    Playing styleRijekaHajduk Split
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.850.72
    xT per match1.41.2
    xTA per match0.560.54
    Won balls, offensive half3129
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.370.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.27
    Entries into the box per match1914
    Entries into the box against57
    Pass completion %0.80.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.76
    Passes per match478444
    Passes against per match264244
    Switches of play per match33.930.6
    Long balls per match3636
    Set piecesRijekaHajduk Split
    xG from free kicks0.030.01
    Corners per match8.24.7
    Corners against per match2.42.5
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.42
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.83
    OtherRijekaHajduk Split
    Throw-in control0.670.74
    The goalkeepersAleksa Todorović (Rijeka)Toni Silić (Hajduk Split)
    Saves610
    Save %55%67%
    xG prevented43%27%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rijeka
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hajduk Split
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rijeka vs Hajduk Split according to our model?

    The model gives Rijeka a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rijeka 40%, draw 29%, Hajduk Split 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    GoricaGorica
    0–2
    OsijekOsijek
    1 31%X 29%2 39%
    The model called the outcome
    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    2–3
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    1 33%X 30%2 37%
    The model called the outcome
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    2–0
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    1 75%X 15%2 10%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.