Croatian HNL18°7 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Hajduk SplitHajduk SplitPossession & high press
    1–0
    VaraždinVaraždinPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Hajduk Split (58%)

    Hajduk Split vs Varaždin · Croatian HNL

    1 · Hajduk Split 58%X 24%18% Varaždin · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hajduk Split vs Varaždin (Croatian HNL, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Hajduk Split win 58%, draw 24%, Varaždin win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Hajduk Split 1.86, Varaždin 0.86. Most likely score: 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Hajduk Split or draw 82%, Varaždin or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Hajduk Split – Varaždin

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Hajduk Split's home fortress faces a genuine test as they take on Varaždin, who remain unbeaten in their last five league matches. The hosts are priced at a 58% chance of victory according to the model, which aligns with historical prowess, winning 68% of their home fixtures all-time. Yet, the visitors' recent resilience presents a compelling subplot. Hajduk's possession-heavy, high-press style will confront Varaždin's control-oriented approach, setting up a tactical chess match.

    The expected goals metric tilts the scales in favor of the Split side, predicting 1.86 to 0.86, highlighting their attacking edge and defensive solidity. Despite this, the head-to-head since 2023 reveals a deadlock: a small sample of nine matches, with both teams claiming three wins apiece and three draws. Varaždin's knack for grinding out results ensures they won't be easily brushed aside, even against a statistically superior opponent.

    With a slight edge in points (19 vs. 18) and xPoints (14.8 vs. 14.7), Hajduk Split enters the match with marginal advantages. The most probable outcomes of 1-0 or 2-0 hint at a closely-fought contest, while the model suggests an over 2.5 goals probability of 51% and both teams to score at 49% — essentially a coin flip for goals.

    For bettors seeking value, the 1.78 odds available with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a 3% edge, presenting an enticing opportunity for those backing the home side. LeoVegas also presents a viable option at 1.75, albeit with a slightly lower 1% edge. The data suggests a tight game, with Hajduk Split's home advantage likely to tip the scales in their favor. A 1-0 victory feels just about right, with a slight lean towards the over 2.5 goals play.

    Hajduk SplitHajduk Split
    Form WWWLW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #1
    Key players
    • Marko LivajaFxG 0.75 · xT 0.30
    • Rokas PukštasCDMxG 0.35 · xT 0.24
    • Šimun HrgovićLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
    VaraždinVaraždin
    Form WDDDW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #5xP/match #4Points #2
    Key players
    • Aleksa LatkovićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.05
    • Luka MamićCAMxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
    • Ivan CanjugaCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hajduk Split 58% · Draw 24% · Varaždin 18%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Hajduk SplitBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,60fair 6,49-14 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - VarazdinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,80fair 29,86-57 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Hajduk Split – Varaždin

    Predicted score matrix

    Varaždin →
    Hajduk Split →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.9%
    0–15.3%
    0–22.4%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–011.9%
    1–110.8%
    1–24.5%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.4%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–07.1%
    3–16.1%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–05.0%
    4+–14.3%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.2-011%
    3. 3.1-111%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    1,86–0,86
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.97
    Over 2,551%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hajduk Split to win58%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.05

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hajduk Split to win58%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Michele Šego to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Michele Šego to score31%
    • Mario Marina to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Hajduk Split58% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Hajduk Split58% probability@1.78NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Hajduk Split58% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hajduk SplitX2 · Varaždin
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    1.78    		3.404.20
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 1%
    1.75    		3.404.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    1.78    		3.404.20
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    1.77    		3.225.43

    Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:35

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    58 %48 %

    1.82 → 1.77

    X+6 %
    35 %25 %

    3.05 → 3.22

    2+7 %
    22 %12 %

    5.06 → 5.43

    Over 2,5+1 %
    57 %47 %

    1.83 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    9 matches
    Hajduk Split 3Draw 3Varaždin 3
    Goals: 10–10 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • NK Varazdin are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    • Hajduk Split win 68% of their home matches all-time (41 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hajduk Split
    Varaždin
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hajduk Split (18–9)
    Varaždin (14–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hajduk Split
    Dario Marešić: 403 passningar, xT 0.56MarešićRon Raçi: 325 passningar, xT 0.31RaçiMathieu Acapandié: 271 passningar, xT 0.29AcapandiéŠimun Hrgović: 201 passningar, xT 0.81HrgovićAlberto del Moral Saelices: 183 passningar, xT 0.07SaelicesAdrion Pajaziti: 166 passningar, xT 0.18PajazitiKhalil Fayad: 140 passningar, xT 0.4FayadDalisson de Almeida Leite: 125 passningar, xT 0.43LeiteToni Silić: 107 passningar, xT 0.09SilićAbdoulie Sanyang: 65 passningar, xT 0.45SanyangMarin Šotiček: 62 passningar, xT 0.32Šotiček
    Varaždin
    Novak Tepšić: 235 passningar, xT 0.24TepšićMario Mladenovski: 228 passningar, xT 0.48MladenovskiFrane Maglica: 207 passningar, xT 2.2MaglicaGregor Sikošek: 174 passningar, xT 0.39SikošekIvan Canjuga: 172 passningar, xT 0.29CanjugaJosip Silić: 165 passningar, xT 0.15SilićMario Marina: 150 passningar, xT 0.07MarinaLuka Mamić: 113 passningar, xT 0.29MamićAleksa Latković: 90 passningar, xT 0.25LatkovićIuri António Teixeira Tavares: 74 passningar, xT 0.22TavaresElvir Duraković: 59 passningar, xT 0Duraković
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hajduk Split
    Dario Marešić: 403 passningar, xT 0.56MarešićRon Raçi: 325 passningar, xT 0.31RaçiMathieu Acapandié: 271 passningar, xT 0.29AcapandiéŠimun Hrgović: 201 passningar, xT 0.81HrgovićAlberto del Moral Saelices: 183 passningar, xT 0.07SaelicesAdrion Pajaziti: 166 passningar, xT 0.18PajazitiKhalil Fayad: 140 passningar, xT 0.4FayadDalisson de Almeida Leite: 125 passningar, xT 0.43LeiteToni Silić: 107 passningar, xT 0.09SilićAbdoulie Sanyang: 65 passningar, xT 0.45SanyangMarin Šotiček: 62 passningar, xT 0.32Šotiček
    Varaždin
    Novak Tepšić: 235 passningar, xT 0.24TepšićMario Mladenovski: 228 passningar, xT 0.48MladenovskiFrane Maglica: 207 passningar, xT 2.2MaglicaGregor Sikošek: 174 passningar, xT 0.39SikošekIvan Canjuga: 172 passningar, xT 0.29CanjugaJosip Silić: 165 passningar, xT 0.15SilićMario Marina: 150 passningar, xT 0.07MarinaLuka Mamić: 113 passningar, xT 0.29MamićAleksa Latković: 90 passningar, xT 0.25LatkovićIuri António Teixeira Tavares: 74 passningar, xT 0.22TavaresElvir Duraković: 59 passningar, xT 0Duraković

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHajduk SplitVaraždin
    Points1918
    xPoints14.814.7
    xG per match1.61.2
    xGA per match0.740.88
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150.15
    Playing styleHajduk SplitVaraždin
    Build-up efficiency0.310.28
    Field tilt0.680.46
    xT per match1.11
    xTA per match0.590.83
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.370.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.2
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against810
    Pass completion %0.80.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match424338
    Passes against per match250372
    Switches of play per match28.239.3
    Long balls per match3444
    Set piecesHajduk SplitVaraždin
    xG from free kicks0.010.07
    Corners per match4.34.7
    Corners against per match2.44.7
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.57
    OtherHajduk SplitVaraždin
    Throw-in control0.720.67
    The goalkeepersToni Silić (Hajduk Split)Josip Silić (Varaždin)
    Saves1333
    Save %59%83%
    xG prevented27%74%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hajduk Split
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Varaždin
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hajduk Split vs Varaždin according to our model?

    The model gives Hajduk Split a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hajduk Split 58%, draw 24%, Varaždin 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Hajduk Split vs Varaždin?

    The model expects 1.86 goals (xG) for Hajduk Split and 0.86 for Varaždin, 2.72 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Hajduk Split or draw (1X) 82%, Varaždin or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 76%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    GoricaGorica
    0–2
    OsijekOsijek
    1 31%X 29%2 39%
    The model called the outcome
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    2–0
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    1 75%X 15%2 10%
    The model called the outcome
    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    2–3
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    1 33%X 30%2 37%
    The model called the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Hämta bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.

    Se ComeOns villkor

    Hämta bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.

    Se Hajpers villkor

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.