01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Istra 1961 or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Croatian HNL11°6 km/h
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Lokomotiva ZagrebLow block & direct2–0
Istra 1961Low block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Istra 1961 (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.63 (+8 %)
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 · Croatian HNL
1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%X 30%38% Istra 1961 · 2
32%
30%
38%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 (Croatian HNL, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Lokomotiva Zagreb win 32%, draw 30%, Istra 1961 win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.39, Istra 1961 1.60. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw 62%, Istra 1961 or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 1961
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Istra 1961 holds a 38% probability of victory, a notable edge over Lokomotiva Zagreb's 32%. This margin is echoed in the metrics: Istra leads in points, expected points, and xG per match. Despite a balanced head-to-head record of three wins each in their last nine encounters, the visitors seem more likely to capitalize.
The expected goals of 1.39 to 1.60 slightly favor Istra. Both teams have direct playing styles with low defensive profiles, hinting at potential vulnerabilities at the back. The over/under leans towards over 2.5 goals at 57%, with a 60% chance for both teams to score. A 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 12%, but a 1-2 away win follows closely at 9%. In this scenario, the balance tips slightly toward the visitors as the marginally more potent side.
For those seeking value, the away win at odds of 2.75 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, or Nordicbet offers a 4% edge. Istra 1961's probability of 38% suggests a profitable opportunity amidst a tight contest. This angle stands out not just as a speculative chance but as a calculated play driven by the model's insights.
Lokomotiva ZagrebForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #9xP/match #9Points #8
Key players
- Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
- Marijan ČabrajaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.34
- Thanasis TriantafyllouCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
Istra 1961Form DDWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #6
Key players
- Emil FrederiksenRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.21
- Raul KumarCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
- Ivan ŠaranićCAMxG 0.31 · xT 0.13
Final score
2 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lokomotiva Zagreb 32% · Draw 30% · Istra 1961 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Istra 1961Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,26fair 7,37-1 %
MissMatchresultat - NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,09fair 9,74-37 %
MissMatch prediction: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 1961
Predicted score matrix
Istra 1961 →
Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–17.7%
0–26.4%
0–33.4%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–06.7%
1–111.5%
1–28.9%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–04.9%
2–17.8%
2–26.2%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.6%
3–22.9%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,39–1,60
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.18
Over 2,557%
@1.69
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Istra 1961 or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Hamza Jaganjac to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Hamza Jaganjac to score23%
- Matija Subotić to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.63PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Istra 196138% probability@2.84PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Istra 196138% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb | X | 2 · Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.30 | EV+ 2% 3.40 | EV+ 4% 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | EV+ 2% 3.40 | EV+ 4% 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | 2.30 | EV+ 2% 3.40 | EV+ 4% 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | EV+ 8% 3.63 | EV+ 7% 2.84 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:14
Odds movement
1+3 %
43 %38 %
2.29 → 2.35
X-2 %
28 %23 %
3.71 → 3.63
2+4 %
36 %31 %
2.74 → 2.84
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesLokomotiva Zagreb 3Draw 3Istra 1961 3
Goals: 14–12 (⌀ 2,9)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Lokomotiva Zagreb (11–17)
Istra 1961 (17–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 12 |
| xPoints | 9.1 | 14 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.75 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 271 | 308 |
| Passes against per match | 372 | 387 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.3 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| Other | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb) | Franko Kolić (Istra 1961) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 32 |
| Save % | 69% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 according to our model?
The model gives Istra 1961 a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lokomotiva Zagreb 32%, draw 30%, Istra 1961 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961?
The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.60 for Istra 1961, 2.99 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (1X) 62%, Istra 1961 or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.