01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Osijek to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Croatian HNL12°7 km/h
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OsijekPossession control1–1
GoricaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Osijek (54%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.99 (+10 %)
Osijek vs Gorica · Croatian HNL
1 · Osijek 54%X 28%19% Gorica · 2
54%
28%
19%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Osijek vs Gorica (Croatian HNL, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Osijek win 54%, draw 28%, Gorica win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Osijek 1.91, Gorica 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Osijek or draw 81%, Gorica or draw 46%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Osijek – Gorica
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Since 2023, the head-to-head record between Osijek and Gorica shows a balanced ledger: three wins each and three draws from nine encounters. This even split suggests no psychological edge for either side, shifting focus to current form and expected goals. Osijek enters with a tangible advantage, sitting on 16 points compared to Gorica's meager five. Despite this, their underlying numbers, such as expected points (xPoints) and expected goals (xG), paint a slightly less dominant picture for the hosts.
Osijek's playing style leans on possession control, which often translates into higher xG figures. They average 1.5 expected goals per match, significantly outpacing Gorica's 0.91. However, both teams show vulnerabilities at the back; Osijek matches their offensive xG with an identical xGA of 1.5, while Gorica's defensive woes are highlighted by a 1.6 xGA. The model's probabilities favor Osijek at 54%, but the visitors' direct approach could exploit defensive lapses, especially in transition moments.
The scorelines projected by the model suggest a tight contest. A 1-1 draw appears most likely at 11%, followed by slim Osijek victories: 2-1 and 1-0 at 10% each. With a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 56% of simulations, goals should be forthcoming despite Gorica's defensive inclinations.
For punters seeking value, the draw stands out at odds of 3.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 5% edge. LeoVegas presents a slightly lower edge at 3%. Given the balanced head-to-head and the model's numbers, a draw isn't far-fetched, aligning with both team profiles and recent performances in the league.
OsijekForm WLWDL
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #6xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Nail OmerovićLWxG 0.66 · xT 0.19
- Domagoj BukvićRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.15
- Ivano KolarikCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
GoricaForm DLDWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #8xP/match #8Points #10
Key players
- Jakov FilipovićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
- Luka VrzićRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.15
- Stefan PerićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Osijek 54% · Draw 28% · Gorica 19%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - OsijekBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,22fair 5,67-8 %
MissMatchresultat - HNK GoricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,36fair 18,96-19 %
MissMatch prediction: Osijek – Gorica
Predicted score matrix
Gorica →
Osijek →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–15.1%
0–22.8%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–09.6%
1–110.7%
1–25.4%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.5%
2–19.9%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–06.1%
3–16.3%
3–23.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.5%
4+–14.7%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,91–1,04
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.05
Over 2,557%
@1.77EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Osijek to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Arnel Jakupovic to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Arnel Jakupovic to score29%
- Tom Jacques Daniel Lacoux to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.99PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Osijek | X | 2 · Gorica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.65 | EV+ 5% 3.80 | 4.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | EV+ 3% 3.75 | 4.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | EV+ 5% 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | EV+ 10% 3.99 | 4.93 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
10 %
59 %54 %
1.64 → 1.65
X+3 %
26 %21 %
3.88 → 3.99
2+4 %
22 %17 %
4.75 → 4.93
Over 2,5+1 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.77
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesOsijek 3Draw 3Gorica 3
Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 1,7)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Osijek
Gorica
Osijek (18–14)
Gorica (6–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Osijek
Gorica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Osijek
Gorica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Osijek | Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 5 |
| xPoints | 12.1 | 9.4 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 0.91 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Osijek | Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 363 | 314 |
| Passes against per match | 284 | 383 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.9 | 24.9 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Osijek | Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| Other | Osijek | Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Marko Malenica (Osijek) | Renato Josipović (Gorica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 25 |
| Save % | 70% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Osijek vs Gorica according to our model?
The model gives Osijek a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osijek 54%, draw 28%, Gorica 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Osijek vs Gorica?
The model expects 1.91 goals (xG) for Osijek and 1.04 for Gorica, 2.96 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Osijek or draw (1X) 81%, Gorica or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.