Rudeš vs Rijeka: Prediction & Odds (16 Oct 2026)

Croatian HNL16 October 202612°8 km/h

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RudešLow block & direct

1–2

RijekaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Rijeka (79%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.15 (+12 %)

1 · Rudeš 8%X 13%79% Rijeka · 2

13%

79%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rudeš vs Rijeka (Croatian HNL, Friday, 16 October 2026): Rudeš win 8%, draw 13%, Rijeka win 79%. Expected goals (xG): Rudeš 0.73, Rijeka 2.75. Most likely score: 0-2 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Rudeš or draw 21%, Rijeka or draw 92%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Rudeš – Rijeka

Marcus Johansson · 16 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Rijeka's high pressing style has been their hallmark this season, and it's likely to dictate the tempo when they face Rudeš. With the visitors holding a 79% chance of victory, the numbers paint a clear picture of dominance. Rudeš's strategy, characterized by a low defensive line and direct play, might struggle against Rijeka's possession-based approach. The hosts have managed just 0.76 expected goals per match, a stark contrast to Rijeka's 1.8, illustrating the offensive gap between the teams.

The model leans heavily towards a Rijeka win, with 0-2 and 0-3 as the most probable scorelines. Rudeš's defense, allowing an average of 2.1 expected goals against per match, will need to find another gear against Rijeka's potent attack, which is scoring at a clip of 2.75 expected goals per game. The previous encounter saw Rijeka take the win, though with just one match in their recent history, the head-to-head weight is limited. Yet, Rudeš's form this season, with only 7 points compared to Rijeka's 14, reinforces the expectation of another Rijeka triumph.

Goals are anticipated, with a 67% chance of over 2.5, but the sharper angle lies beyond that. The model identifies a compelling opportunity in the over 4.5 market, offering a 12% value edge at odds of 4.15 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. Likewise, the over 3.5 market presents an 11% edge at odds of 2.42 with Betsafe. These suggest a high-scoring affair, despite the initial lean towards a controlled victory for Rijeka.

In a matchup where the visitors are poised to exploit Rudeš's defensive vulnerabilities, and with Rijeka's high press likely to create multiple scoring chances, the model points towards significant value in betting on a goal-heavy outcome.

Rudeš

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Jurica PoldrugačLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
Vedran CeljakCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Xavier Cabrita FernandesCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.07

Rijeka

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Niko JankovićLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Ante OrecRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rudeš 8% · Draw 13% · Rijeka 79%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - HNK RijekaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,03fair 3,89+4 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NK Rudes ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 24,85fair 58,82-58 %

Miss

Match prediction: Rudeš – Rijeka

Predicted score matrix

Rijeka →

Rudeš →

0–03.3%

0–18.3%

0–211.7%

0–310.7%

0–4+14.4%

1–02.1%

1–16.4%

1–28.5%

1–37.8%

1–4+10.4%

2–00.8%

2–12.2%

2–23.1%

2–32.8%

2–4+3.8%

3–00.2%

3–10.5%

3–20.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.0%

4+–10.1%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-212%
2.0-311%
3.1-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-38%

Expected goals

0,73–2,75

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@2.25

Over 2,567%

@1.55EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rijeka to win79%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rijeka to win79%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Daniel William Kwabena Adu-Adjei to score49%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Daniel William Kwabena Adu-Adjei to score49%
Ivan Đorić to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.527% probability@4.15BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Over 4.527% probability@4.15NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
Over 3.546% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rudeš	X	2 · Rijeka
Betsafe	7.00	4.70	EV+ 8% 1.36
LeoVegas	6.80	4.55	EV+ 7% 1.35
Nordicbet	7.00	4.70	EV+ 8% 1.36
Pinnacle	8.08	4.96	EV+ 8% 1.36

Odds updated 16 Oct, 12:15

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Rudeš win since 12 October — the odds have shortened from 9.47 to 8.08 (−15%).

1-15 %

13 %8 %

9.47 → 8.08

X-7 %

21 %16 %

5.33 → 4.96

2+7 %

73 %68 %

1.27 → 1.36

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Rudeš 0Draw 0Rijeka 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rudeš

Rijeka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rudeš (12–25)

Rijeka (14–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rudeš

Rijeka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rudeš

Rijeka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rudeš	Rijeka
Points	7	14
xPoints	7.3	14.3
xG per match	0.76	1.8
xGA per match	2.1	0.75
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.06	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.13

Playing style	Rudeš	Rijeka
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.36	0.79
xT per match	0.64	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	19	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.33
Entries into the box per match	8	17
Entries into the box against	14	6
Pass completion %	0.7	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.73
Passes per match	262	449
Passes against per match	421	291
Switches of play per match	22.3	30.7
Long balls per match	28	34

Set pieces	Rudeš	Rijeka
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.03
Corners per match	3.5	7.1
Corners against per match	6.8	2.6
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.57

Other	Rudeš	Rijeka
Throw-in control	0.64	0.66

The goalkeepers	Lovre Rogić (Rudeš)	Igor Vekić (Rijeka)
Saves	32	13
Save %	56%	72%
xG prevented	30%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rudeš

Fixtures, form & tips

Rijeka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rudeš vs Rijeka according to our model?

The model gives Rijeka a 79% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rudeš 8%, draw 13%, Rijeka 79%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Rudeš vs Rijeka?

The model expects 0.73 goals (xG) for Rudeš and 2.75 for Rijeka, 3.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Rudeš or draw (1X) 21%, Rijeka or draw (X2) 92% and no draw (12) 87%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.