Croatian HNL12°12 km/h

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    Slaven BelupoSlaven BelupoLow block & direct
    1–5
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo ZagrebPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Dinamo Zagreb (75%)

    Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb · Croatian HNL

    1 · Slaven Belupo 10%X 16%75% Dinamo Zagreb · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 1–5. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb (Croatian HNL, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Slaven Belupo win 10%, draw 16%, Dinamo Zagreb win 75%. Expected goals (xG): Slaven Belupo 0.83, Dinamo Zagreb 2.65. Most likely score: 0-2 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Slaven Belupo or draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb or draw 90%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Slaven Belupo – Dinamo Zagreb

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The clash between Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb seems destined to follow a familiar script, with the visitors poised to dominate proceedings. With a staggering 75% win probability favoring Dinamo Zagreb, it's clear they are the dominant force in this matchup. The model highlights a 0-2 scoreline as the most probable outcome, reflecting the visitors' potent attacking prowess against the hosts' vulnerable defense. Slaven Belupo's low defensive setup is likely to be severely tested by Zagreb's possession-oriented style and high press.

    Dinamo's recent form bolsters their credentials. They've consistently found the net in their last eight league matches, underscoring their attacking threat. Even when factoring in the average 4.2 goals per match in this fixture, the likelihood of seeing over 2.5 goals is significant at 68%. Slaven Belupo, on the other hand, faces a tough challenge, struggling to contain opponents with an xGA of 1.8 per match. Their direct style might yield chances, but their expected goals figure of 0.83 suggests these will be limited against a well-drilled Zagreb defense.

    Though the head-to-head record since 2023 shows a small sample size, Zagreb's dominance is evident, winning 7 of the 9 encounters. This historical pattern enhances confidence in an away victory. With Zagreb's xG per match at 2.3, compared to Slaven's 1.0, the disparity in attacking capability is clear. Such numbers suggest that while a Slaven Belupo goal isn't out of the question, a narrow one-goal margin seems their best hope.

    For bettors, the away win is priced at 1.34 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, matching the model's 75% win probability — a fair price with no edge (0% EV), reflecting Dinamo Zagreb's clear superiority rather than a betting value opportunity.

    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    Form LWLDW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #7xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
    • Ilija NestorovskiFxG 0.47 · xT 0.09
    • Alen GrgićRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    Form DWLWL
    League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Josip MišićCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
    • Luka IvanušecLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    • Luka StojkovićRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.22
    Final score
    1 – 5
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Slaven Belupo 10% · Draw 16% · Dinamo Zagreb 75%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Dinamo ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,36fair 3,78-11 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Slaven BelupoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 16,20fair 40,11-60 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Slaven Belupo – Dinamo Zagreb

    Predicted score matrix

    Dinamo Zagreb →
    Slaven Belupo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.3%
    0–18.0%
    0–210.8%
    0–39.5%
    0–4+12.0%
    1
    1–02.4%
    1–17.0%
    1–29.0%
    1–37.9%
    1–4+10.0%
    2
    2–01.1%
    2–12.8%
    2–23.7%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+4.1%
    3
    3–00.3%
    3–10.8%
    3–21.0%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–00.1%
    4+–10.2%
    4+–20.3%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-211%
    2. 2.0-310%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-38%
    Expected goals
    0,83–2,65
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    @2.72
    Over 2,568%
    @1.41

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win75%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    68%

    Fair odds

    1.48

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win75%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Dion Drena Beljo to score42%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Dion Drena Beljo to score42%
    • Ljuban Crepulja to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Dinamo Zagreb75% probability@1.38PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • 2 · Dinamo Zagreb75% probability@1.37BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Dinamo Zagreb75% probability@1.37NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Slaven BelupoX2 · Dinamo Zagreb
    Betsafe6.204.80
    EV+ 2%
    1.37
    LeoVegas6.104.85
    EV+ 2%
    1.36
    Nordicbet6.204.80
    EV+ 2%
    1.37
    Pinnacle6.855.27
    EV+ 3%
    1.38

    Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:35

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    17 %12 %

    6.37 → 6.85

    X+1 %
    20 %15 %

    5.20 → 5.27

    2+1 %
    71 %66 %

    1.37 → 1.38

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    9 matches
    Slaven Belupo 1Draw 1Dinamo Zagreb 7
    Goals: 11–27 (⌀ 4,2)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 7 wins to 1 in 9 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Slaven Belupo
    Dinamo Zagreb
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Slaven Belupo (11–17)
    Dinamo Zagreb (18–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Slaven Belupo
    Dominik Kovačić: 178 passningar, xT 0.3KovačićTomislav Božić: 147 passningar, xT 0.61BožićAdetunji Rasaq Adeshina: 100 passningar, xT 0.06AdeshinaJosip Mitrović: 89 passningar, xT 0.76MitrovićFilip Mažar: 83 passningar, xT 0.05MažarMarko Dabro: 78 passningar, xT 0.27DabroLjuban Crepulja: 66 passningar, xT 0.09CrepuljaIlija Nestorovski: 63 passningar, xT 0.07NestorovskiKarlo Isasegi: 62 passningar, xT 0.09IsasegiJon Mersinaj: 60 passningar, xT 0.09MersinajAlen Grgić: 60 passningar, xT 0.52Grgić
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Sergi Domínguez Viloria: 228 passningar, xT 0.57ViloriaOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 222 passningar, xT 1.18VinlöfScott Fraser McKenna: 222 passningar, xT 0.49McKennaMoris Valinčić: 145 passningar, xT 0.7ValinčićStjepan Radeljić: 140 passningar, xT 0.61RadeljićJosip Mišić: 124 passningar, xT 0.28MišićDominik Kotarski: 112 passningar, xT 0.12KotarskiKirill Kravtsov: 107 passningar, xT 0.12KravtsovMiha Zajc: 103 passningar, xT -0.09ZajcLuka Stojković: 97 passningar, xT 0.76StojkovićLukas Kacavenda: 88 passningar, xT 0.2Kacavenda
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Slaven Belupo
    Dominik Kovačić: 178 passningar, xT 0.3KovačićTomislav Božić: 147 passningar, xT 0.61BožićAdetunji Rasaq Adeshina: 100 passningar, xT 0.06AdeshinaJosip Mitrović: 89 passningar, xT 0.76MitrovićFilip Mažar: 83 passningar, xT 0.05MažarMarko Dabro: 78 passningar, xT 0.27DabroLjuban Crepulja: 66 passningar, xT 0.09CrepuljaIlija Nestorovski: 63 passningar, xT 0.07NestorovskiKarlo Isasegi: 62 passningar, xT 0.09IsasegiJon Mersinaj: 60 passningar, xT 0.09MersinajAlen Grgić: 60 passningar, xT 0.52Grgić
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Sergi Domínguez Viloria: 228 passningar, xT 0.57ViloriaOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 222 passningar, xT 1.18VinlöfScott Fraser McKenna: 222 passningar, xT 0.49McKennaMoris Valinčić: 145 passningar, xT 0.7ValinčićStjepan Radeljić: 140 passningar, xT 0.61RadeljićJosip Mišić: 124 passningar, xT 0.28MišićDominik Kotarski: 112 passningar, xT 0.12KotarskiKirill Kravtsov: 107 passningar, xT 0.12KravtsovMiha Zajc: 103 passningar, xT -0.09ZajcLuka Stojković: 97 passningar, xT 0.76StojkovićLukas Kacavenda: 88 passningar, xT 0.2Kacavenda

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSlaven BelupoDinamo Zagreb
    Points1016
    xPoints1015.8
    xG per match12.3
    xGA per match1.80.81
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.090.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.12
    Playing styleSlaven BelupoDinamo Zagreb
    Build-up efficiency0.290.32
    Field tilt0.370.77
    xT per match0.891.6
    xTA per match1.20.65
    Won balls, offensive half2332
    Pressing intensity0.250.2
    Pressing efficiency0.280.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.31
    Entries into the box per match1018
    Entries into the box against166
    Pass completion %0.710.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.71
    Passes per match272431
    Passes against per match394246
    Switches of play per match22.732.9
    Long balls per match3333
    Set piecesSlaven BelupoDinamo Zagreb
    xG from free kicks0.070.09
    Corners per match3.97.2
    Corners against per match5.62.5
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.7
    OtherSlaven BelupoDinamo Zagreb
    Throw-in control0.680.69
    The goalkeepersKarlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo)Dominik Kotarski (Dinamo Zagreb)
    Saves2012
    Save %59%63%
    xG prevented41%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Slaven Belupo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb according to our model?

    The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slaven Belupo 10%, draw 16%, Dinamo Zagreb 75%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb?

    The model expects 0.83 goals (xG) for Slaven Belupo and 2.65 for Dinamo Zagreb, 3.48 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Slaven Belupo or draw (1X) 25%, Dinamo Zagreb or draw (X2) 90% and no draw (12) 84%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.