EredivisieCambuur Stadion, Leeuwarden16°5,6 mm24 km/h

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    CambuurCambuurPossession control
    3–0
    NECNECPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · NEC (52%)Best value by the model: 1 · Cambuur @ 5.90 (+53 %)

    Cambuur vs NEC · Eredivisie

    1 · Cambuur 26%X 22%52% NEC · 2

    Analysis: Cambuur – NEC

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    One factual error found: the text says "reinforced by their more potent xG of 1.9 per match" but this is xG per match data, which is fine, but let's check the scorelines - "likely scoreline of 1-1 or 1-2" omits 0-1, which is a minor omission not an error.

    Checking more carefully: the text states "This tactical contrast sets the stage for a match where NEC's pressing game could thrive against Cambuur's attempts to dictate tempo" - this is fine.

    The key issue: text says "with NEC narrowly edging the match" - but NEC has 52% vs Cambuur 26%, which isn't "narrow" - this is opinion/style, not a factual error.

    Checking the EV+ value section: "The model rates Cambuur's chances at 26%, translating to a notable 37% edge" - this matches FACTS exactly (26%, 37% edge) for home odds 5.31. This is consistent.

    All numbers check out: 52% NEC win, 1.9 vs 1.1 xG, 28 consecutive matches, 2.3 xGA, 1.76 xG, 1.30 xG, 60% BTTS, 59% over 2.5, 5.31 odds, 26%, 37% edge.

    OK

    CambuurCambuur
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #9xP/match #17Points #18
    Key players
    • Nicolas BinderFxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
    • Rafik El ArguiouiLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.17
    • Jamal AmofaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
    NECNEC
    Form LWWLD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #2xP/match #7Points #8
    Key players
    • Brayann PereiraRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
    • Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.29 · xT 0.04
    • Dušan TadićFxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Cambuur 26% · Draw 22% · NEC 52%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CambuurBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,33fair 11,43-10 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - NECBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,57fair 6,22-43 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Cambuur – NEC

    Predicted score matrix

    NEC →
    Cambuur →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.0%
    0–18.0%
    0–27.3%
    0–34.3%
    0–4+2.8%
    1
    1–05.8%
    1–111.1%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.5%
    1–4+3.6%
    2
    2–04.0%
    2–17.0%
    2–26.1%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.3%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–13.0%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.0-27%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,30–1,76
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @3.20EV+28%
    Over 2,559%
    @1.39

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • NEC to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.51

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • NEC to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score26%
    • Billy van Duijl to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Cambuur26% probability@5.90Betfair ExchangeEV+53%reference odds
    • 1 · Cambuur26% probability@5.25Bet365EV+36%reference odds
    • Under 2.541% probability@3.20Betfair ExchangeEV+32%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CambuurX2 · NEC
    Bet365
    EV+ 36%
    5.25
    EV+ 12%
    5.00    		1.44
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 53%
    5.90
    EV+ 15%
    5.10    		1.46
    Betsafe
    EV+ 25%
    4.83    		4.111.62
    Betsson
    EV+ 25%
    4.83    		4.111.62
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 25%
    4.83    		4.111.62
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 29%
    4.99
    EV+ 4%
    4.61    		1.60

    Odds updated 12 Sept, 20:25

    Odds movement

    1-7 %
    24 %14 %

    5.34 → 4.99

    X-5 %
    25 %15 %

    4.86 → 4.61

    2+7 %
    65 %55 %

    1.50 → 1.60

    Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • NEC have scored in 28 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Cambuur
    NEC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Cambuur (6–18)
    NEC (11–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Cambuur
    Ismaël Baouf: 260 passningar, xT 0.34BaoufJamal Amofa: 247 passningar, xT 0.48AmofaNicky Souren: 163 passningar, xT 0.37SourenThijs Jansen: 139 passningar, xT 0.2JansenLucas Jetten: 133 passningar, xT 0.19JettenMorgan Costarelli: 120 passningar, xT 0.12CostarelliBilly van Duijl: 112 passningar, xT 0.31DuijlIlyès Hamache: 82 passningar, xT 0.58HamacheRafik El Arguioui: 81 passningar, xT 0.75ArguiouiIwan Henstra: 68 passningar, xT 0.67HenstraWiebe Kooistra: 65 passningar, xT 0.01Kooistra
    NEC
    Tobias Storm: 230 passningar, xT 0.4StormDeveron Fonville: 153 passningar, xT 0.33FonvilleJamiro Gregory Monteiro Alvarenga: 150 passningar, xT 0.12AlvarengaDarko Nejašmić: 139 passningar, xT 0.62NejašmićDušan Tadić: 134 passningar, xT 0.83TadićGonzalo Alejandro Crettaz: 132 passningar, xT 0.29CrettazTjaronn Chery: 129 passningar, xT 0.26CheryBrayann Pereira: 116 passningar, xT 0.45PereiraGabriel Costa Brás: 115 passningar, xT 0.41BrásNoé Lebreton: 106 passningar, xT -0.2LebretonClement Mutahi Bischoff: 96 passningar, xT 1.3Bischoff
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Cambuur
    Ismaël Baouf: 260 passningar, xT 0.34BaoufJamal Amofa: 247 passningar, xT 0.48AmofaNicky Souren: 163 passningar, xT 0.37SourenThijs Jansen: 139 passningar, xT 0.2JansenLucas Jetten: 133 passningar, xT 0.19JettenMorgan Costarelli: 120 passningar, xT 0.12CostarelliBilly van Duijl: 112 passningar, xT 0.31DuijlIlyès Hamache: 82 passningar, xT 0.58HamacheRafik El Arguioui: 81 passningar, xT 0.75ArguiouiIwan Henstra: 68 passningar, xT 0.67HenstraWiebe Kooistra: 65 passningar, xT 0.01Kooistra
    NEC
    Tobias Storm: 230 passningar, xT 0.4StormDeveron Fonville: 153 passningar, xT 0.33FonvilleJamiro Gregory Monteiro Alvarenga: 150 passningar, xT 0.12AlvarengaDarko Nejašmić: 139 passningar, xT 0.62NejašmićDušan Tadić: 134 passningar, xT 0.83TadićGonzalo Alejandro Crettaz: 132 passningar, xT 0.29CrettazTjaronn Chery: 129 passningar, xT 0.26CheryBrayann Pereira: 116 passningar, xT 0.45PereiraGabriel Costa Brás: 115 passningar, xT 0.41BrásNoé Lebreton: 106 passningar, xT -0.2LebretonClement Mutahi Bischoff: 96 passningar, xT 1.3Bischoff

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCambuurNEC
    Points17
    xPoints46.8
    xG per match1.11.9
    xGA per match2.31.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.36
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.21
    Playing styleCambuurNEC
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.420.8
    xT per match1.11.9
    xTA per match1.20.8
    Won balls, offensive half1933
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.39
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.33
    Entries into the box per match1322
    Entries into the box against1610
    Pass completion %0.790.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.72
    Passes per match348447
    Passes against per match350213
    Switches of play per match24.417.4
    Long balls per match2726
    Set piecesCambuurNEC
    xG from free kicks0.030
    Corners per match3.85
    Corners against per match63
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.73
    OtherCambuurNEC
    Throw-in control0.820.73
    The goalkeepersThijs Jansen (Cambuur)Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)
    Saves185
    Save %51%42%
    xG prevented28%13%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Cambuur
    Fixtures, form & tips
    NEC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Cambuur vs NEC according to our model?

    The model gives NEC a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cambuur 26%, draw 22%, NEC 52%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.