EFL ChampionshipEwood Park, Blackburn17°2,7 mm12 km/h

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    Blackburn RoversBlackburn RoversPossession control
    1–2
    Queens Park RangersQueens Park RangersCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Blackburn Rovers (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.91 (+13 %)

    Blackburn Rovers – Queens Park Rangers · EFL Championship

    1 · Blackburn Rovers 41%X 30%29% Queens Park Rangers · 2

    Analysis: Blackburn Rovers – Queens Park Rangers

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Despite the model's lean towards Blackburn Rovers, the facts paint a compelling picture for Queens Park Rangers. The guests' expected goals (xG) metrics suggest they are better at creating chances and converting them, averaging an impressive 2.0 xG per match compared to Blackburn's meager 0.71. The counter-attacking prowess of QPR is underlined by their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, which stands at 0.21 against Blackburn's paltry 0.03. This suggests that Rovers might struggle to contain Queens Park Rangers' rapid transitions and crosses.

    Digging deeper into expected goals against (xGA), Blackburn concedes an average of 1.8 xGA per game, a glaring vulnerability when set against QPR’s tighter defensive record of 1.1 xGA. While Blackburn aims to control possession, their defensive frailties could be exposed by QPR’s more efficient approach. The visitors' style is clearly built to exploit teams that may overcommit, as Rovers might with their possession-based game.

    The head-to-head record since 2023 offers a small sample size with each team having won twice, making it a less reliable indicator than their current form and underlying statistics. The slight difference in the most likely scorelines such as 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%) barely favors Blackburn but does not account for the broader context of these stats, particularly Rovers’ defensive weaknesses.

    With 6.8 mm of rain expected, the damp conditions may further suppress goal-scoring opportunities, which is reflected in the low over 2.5 goals probability of 41%. Yet, the value bet here lies in siding with the underdog. Queens Park Rangers carries a significant edge given their superior xG metrics and the hosts' defensive concerns. This match is ripe for a calculated punt on the visitors turning over expectations, possibly snatching it by a narrow 1-0 margin.

    Blackburn RoversBlackburn Rovers
    Form DWLDW
    League ranking xG #22xGA #17xT #20xP/match #20Points #6
    Key players
    • Andri Lucas GuðjohnsenCAMxG 0.32 · xT 0.09
    • Todd CantwellCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.01
    • Kristi Julian MontgomeryCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.01
    Queens Park RangersQueens Park Rangers
    Form LLLWD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #3xP/match #3Points #5
    Key players
    • Harvey ValeFxG 0.22 · xT 0.18
    • Jimmy DunneCBxG 0.04 · xT -0.09
    • Ilias ChairCAMxG 0.68 · xT 0.46
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Blackburn Rovers 41% · Draw 30% · Queens Park Rangers 29%

    Match prediction: Blackburn Rovers – Queens Park Rangers

    Predicted score matrix

    Queens Park Rangers →
    Blackburn Rovers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.3%
    0–110.0%
    0–25.4%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–012.1%
    1–113.5%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–18.3%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,27–1,05
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.91EV+13%
    Over 2,541%
    @1.96

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Blackburn Rovers or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Blackburn Rovers or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Mathias Jørgensen to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Richard Kone to score27%
    • Lewis Travis to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.559% probability@1.91PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.50PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Blackburn Rovers41% probability@2.51PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Blackburn RoversX2 · Queens Park Rangers
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 2%
    2.51
    EV+ 6%
    3.50    		2.84

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:26

    Odds movement

    1+7 %
    43 %38 %

    2.35 → 2.51

    X+3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.41 → 3.50

    2-5 %
    35 %30 %

    2.99 → 2.84

    Over 2,5-4 %
    51 %46 %

    2.04 → 1.96

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Blackburn Rovers 2Draw 0Queens Park Rangers 2
    Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Blackburn Rovers
    Queens Park Rangers
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Blackburn Rovers (4–3)
    Queens Park Rangers (3–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Blackburn Rovers
    Sean Mcloughlin: 81 passningar, xT 0.11McloughlinHarry Pickering: 60 passningar, xT 0.12PickeringBalazs Toth: 54 passningar, xT 0.07TothTom Joseph Atcheson: 49 passningar, xT 0.07AtchesonRyan Alebiosu: 48 passningar, xT 0.17AlebiosuKristi Julian Montgomery: 47 passningar, xT -0.04MontgomeryTodd Cantwell: 40 passningar, xT -0.06CantwellSamy Sayed Mekway Said Morsy: 32 passningar, xT 0.04MorsyRyoya Morishita: 30 passningar, xT 0.19MorishitaAdam Forshaw: 28 passningar, xT 0.03ForshawAndri Lucas Guðjohnsen: 25 passningar, xT 0.05Guðjohnsen
    Queens Park Rangers
    Jimmy Dunne: 97 passningar, xT -0.19DunneJake Clarke Salter: 94 passningar, xT 0.01SalterPierce Joseph Charles: 90 passningar, xT 0.12CharlesRonnie Edwards: 71 passningar, xT 0.39EdwardsIlias Chair: 68 passningar, xT 0.59ChairKealey Otieno Adamson: 51 passningar, xT 0.23AdamsonHarvey Vale: 49 passningar, xT 0.33ValeAmadou Salif Mbengue: 43 passningar, xT 0.26MbengueGlen Adjei Kamara: 22 passningar, xT 0.03KamaraTariq Kwame Nii-Lante Lamptey: 20 passningar, xT 0.02LampteyKoki Saito: 19 passningar, xT 0.28Saito
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Blackburn Rovers
    Sean Mcloughlin: 81 passningar, xT 0.11McloughlinHarry Pickering: 60 passningar, xT 0.12PickeringBalazs Toth: 54 passningar, xT 0.07TothTom Joseph Atcheson: 49 passningar, xT 0.07AtchesonRyan Alebiosu: 48 passningar, xT 0.17AlebiosuKristi Julian Montgomery: 47 passningar, xT -0.04MontgomeryTodd Cantwell: 40 passningar, xT -0.06CantwellSamy Sayed Mekway Said Morsy: 32 passningar, xT 0.04MorsyRyoya Morishita: 30 passningar, xT 0.19MorishitaAdam Forshaw: 28 passningar, xT 0.03ForshawAndri Lucas Guðjohnsen: 25 passningar, xT 0.05Guðjohnsen
    Queens Park Rangers
    Jimmy Dunne: 97 passningar, xT -0.19DunneJake Clarke Salter: 94 passningar, xT 0.01SalterPierce Joseph Charles: 90 passningar, xT 0.12CharlesRonnie Edwards: 71 passningar, xT 0.39EdwardsIlias Chair: 68 passningar, xT 0.59ChairKealey Otieno Adamson: 51 passningar, xT 0.23AdamsonHarvey Vale: 49 passningar, xT 0.33ValeAmadou Salif Mbengue: 43 passningar, xT 0.26MbengueGlen Adjei Kamara: 22 passningar, xT 0.03KamaraTariq Kwame Nii-Lante Lamptey: 20 passningar, xT 0.02LampteyKoki Saito: 19 passningar, xT 0.28Saito

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBlackburn RoversQueens Park Rangers
    Points44
    xPoints1.94
    xG per match0.712
    xGA per match1.81.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.030.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.050.07
    Playing styleBlackburn RoversQueens Park Rangers
    Build-up efficiency0.290.3
    Field tilt0.290.57
    xT per match0.571.4
    xTA per match1.30.83
    Won balls, offensive half1626
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.240.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.2
    Entries into the box per match919
    Entries into the box against1710
    Pass completion %0.720.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.69
    Passes per match272346
    Passes against per match521344
    Switches of play per match2827.6
    Long balls per match3036
    Set piecesBlackburn RoversQueens Park Rangers
    xG from free kicks00.08
    Corners per match3.65.9
    Corners against per match7.64
    xG per corner0.060.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.75
    OtherBlackburn RoversQueens Park Rangers
    Throw-in control0.740.7
    The goalkeepersTom Joseph Atcheson (Blackburn Rovers)Pierce Joseph Charles (Queens Park Rangers)
    Saves65
    Save %100%83%
    xG prevented100%98%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Blackburn Rovers
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Queens Park Rangers
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers according to our model?

    The model gives Blackburn Rovers a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Blackburn Rovers 41%, draw 30%, Queens Park Rangers 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.