EFL ChampionshipRacecourse Ground, Wrexham17°2,3 mm18 km/h

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    WrexhamWrexhamLow block & direct
    1–2
    Birmingham CityBirmingham CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Birmingham City (38%)

    Wrexham – Birmingham City · EFL Championship

    1 · Wrexham 35%X 27%38% Birmingham City · 2

    Analysis: Wrexham – Birmingham City

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Birmingham City arrive at Wrexham riding a seven-game unbeaten streak in the league, giving them a slight edge according to the model's 38% win probability. Despite this, the home side has a statistical edge in expected metrics. Wrexham leads in xPoints (3.5 vs 2.6), xG per match (1.3 vs 1.1), and xGA per match (0.76 vs 0.98), suggesting tighter defensive control and a slightly more efficient attack.

    The head-to-head sample is small, with just two games since 2023, showing one draw and one loss for Wrexham. This shouldn't overshadow the more significant patterns of form and expected goals. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw (13%), reflecting the balanced nature of the contest and the modest expected goals tally of around 1.24 for Wrexham against 1.19 for Birmingham City. The model suggests a lean towards under 2.5 goals, at 44%.

    For those looking for value, Birmingham City's victory at odds of 2.92 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stands out as a smart play with a 10% edge. The potential for a slim 1-0 win aligns with both teams' tactical profiles and the anticipated damp conditions, favoring disciplined and strategic play over high-scoring fireworks.

    WrexhamWrexham
    Form WLDDD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #3xT #6xP/match #6Points #13
    Key players
    • Kieffer MooreFxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
    • Lewis ObrienCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
    • Callum DoyleCBxG 0.34 · xT 0.14
    Birmingham CityBirmingham City
    Form WWDDD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #11xP/match #13Points #16
    Key players
    • Alexander William CochraneLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.44
    • Jhon SolísCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    • Christoph KlarerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Wrexham 35% · Draw 27% · Birmingham City 38%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - BirminghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,31fair 14,02+2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - WrexhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,98fair 12,95-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Wrexham – Birmingham City

    Predicted score matrix

    Birmingham City →
    Wrexham →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.3%
    0–110.1%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.0%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,24–1,19
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    @1.68
    Over 2,544%
    @2.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Birmingham City or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Birmingham City or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Seung-Ho Paik to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score27%
    • Tomoki Iwata to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Birmingham City38% probability@3.55PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
    • 2 · Birmingham City38% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
    • 2 · Birmingham City38% probability@3.45BetssonEV+29%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · WrexhamX2 · Birmingham City
    Betsafe2.183.20
    EV+ 29%
    3.45
    Betsson2.183.20
    EV+ 29%
    3.45
    Nordicbet2.183.20
    EV+ 29%
    3.45
    Pinnacle2.213.30
    EV+ 33%
    3.55

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 20:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.83 to 1.68 (−8%).

    1-10 %
    46 %36 %

    2.46 → 2.21

    X+2 %
    34 %24 %

    3.24 → 3.30

    2+20 %
    35 %25 %

    2.96 → 3.55

    Over 2,5+14 %
    50 %40 %

    2.00 → 2.27

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Wrexham 0Draw 1Birmingham City 1
    Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Birmingham City are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wrexham
    Birmingham City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wrexham (2–2)
    Birmingham City (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wrexham
    Lewis Obrien: 91 passningar, xT -0.01ObrienCallum Doyle: 77 passningar, xT 0.19DoyleZak Vyner: 70 passningar, xT 0.5VynerGeorge Andrew Thomason: 62 passningar, xT 0.17ThomasonBenjamin Whiteman: 54 passningar, xT 0.04WhitemanDominic Hyam: 51 passningar, xT 0.04HyamAnthony Patterson: 42 passningar, xT 0.22PattersonNathan Paul Broadhead: 35 passningar, xT 0.28BroadheadOliver Michael Rathbone: 33 passningar, xT 0.35RathboneMatthew Lee James: 29 passningar, xT 0.06JamesDaniel Edward Peter Imray: 21 passningar, xT 0.41Imray
    Birmingham City
    Jhon Solís: 85 passningar, xT 0.07SolísChristoph Klarer: 78 passningar, xT 0.26KlarerTomoki Iwata: 76 passningar, xT 0.08IwataAlexander William Cochrane: 76 passningar, xT 0.88CochranePhil Yannik Neumann: 70 passningar, xT 0.13NeumannBright Osayi-Samuel: 57 passningar, xT 0.06Osayi-SamuelSeung-Ho Paik: 47 passningar, xT 0.1PaikCarlos Vicente Robles: 35 passningar, xT 0.07RoblesJames Beadle: 26 passningar, xT 0.08BeadleDemarai Ramelle Gray: 25 passningar, xT -0.1GrayJay Stansfield: 21 passningar, xT 0.14Stansfield
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wrexham
    Lewis Obrien: 91 passningar, xT -0.01ObrienCallum Doyle: 77 passningar, xT 0.19DoyleZak Vyner: 70 passningar, xT 0.5VynerGeorge Andrew Thomason: 62 passningar, xT 0.17ThomasonBenjamin Whiteman: 54 passningar, xT 0.04WhitemanDominic Hyam: 51 passningar, xT 0.04HyamAnthony Patterson: 42 passningar, xT 0.22PattersonNathan Paul Broadhead: 35 passningar, xT 0.28BroadheadOliver Michael Rathbone: 33 passningar, xT 0.35RathboneMatthew Lee James: 29 passningar, xT 0.06JamesDaniel Edward Peter Imray: 21 passningar, xT 0.41Imray
    Birmingham City
    Jhon Solís: 85 passningar, xT 0.07SolísChristoph Klarer: 78 passningar, xT 0.26KlarerTomoki Iwata: 76 passningar, xT 0.08IwataAlexander William Cochrane: 76 passningar, xT 0.88CochranePhil Yannik Neumann: 70 passningar, xT 0.13NeumannBright Osayi-Samuel: 57 passningar, xT 0.06Osayi-SamuelSeung-Ho Paik: 47 passningar, xT 0.1PaikCarlos Vicente Robles: 35 passningar, xT 0.07RoblesJames Beadle: 26 passningar, xT 0.08BeadleDemarai Ramelle Gray: 25 passningar, xT -0.1GrayJay Stansfield: 21 passningar, xT 0.14Stansfield

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWrexhamBirmingham City
    Points22
    xPoints3.52.6
    xG per match1.31.1
    xGA per match0.760.98
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.16
    Playing styleWrexhamBirmingham City
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.430.62
    xT per match1.31.1
    xTA per match0.940.99
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.260.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.51
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.55
    Entries into the box per match1612
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.740.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.66
    Passes per match300316
    Passes against per match362182
    Switches of play per match18.122.4
    Long balls per match3231
    Set piecesWrexhamBirmingham City
    xG from free kicks0.020.17
    Corners per match9.37.5
    Corners against per match5.92.5
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.09
    First touch, offensive corners %0.260.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.6
    OtherWrexhamBirmingham City
    Throw-in control0.660.74
    The goalkeepersAnthony Patterson (Wrexham)James Beadle (Birmingham City)
    Saves75
    Save %78%71%
    xG prevented52%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Wrexham
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Birmingham City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wrexham vs Birmingham City according to our model?

    The model gives Birmingham City a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wrexham 35%, draw 27%, Birmingham City 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.