EFL ChampionshipCarrow Road, Norwich18°13,3 mm20 km/h

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    Norwich CityNorwich CityPossession & high press
    4–1
    BurnleyBurnleyBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Norwich City (53%)

    Norwich City – Burnley · EFL Championship

    1 · Norwich City 53%X 26%21% Burnley · 2

    Analysis: Norwich City – Burnley

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    In the last two encounters since 2023, Burnley has come out on top against Norwich City, but the sample size is small. This historical edge for the visitors is at odds with their current form. Norwich, despite a losing streak of three matches, seems to find favor in the model’s probabilities, which peg them at a 53% chance of victory against Burnley's 21%. The expectation of 1.75 goals for the hosts compared to 1.02 for the visitors underscores a potential turnaround for Norwich.

    The xG metrics further spotlight Norwich's attacking potential, averaging 1.7 goals per match compared to Burnley's 1.4. On the defensive side, however, Norwich's vulnerabilities are evident with an xGA of 2.3 against Burnley's 1.8. The high-pressing style of the hosts may expose them to counterattacks, hinting at a tightly contested match, yet one where they could edge ahead if they tighten up defensively.

    Weather conditions forecasted at 17.9°C with 4.2 mm of rain can often dampen goal-scoring prospects, but this factor is already accounted for in the model’s numbers. Despite the rain, the probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score remain marginally above 50%, suggesting a balanced duel that could see both sides on the score sheet.

    The most compelling angle lies in the odds for a Norwich victory. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet each offer odds of 2.3 for a home win, representing a substantial value play given the model’s 53% win probability for the hosts, translating into a 22% edge. Given the numbers and the potential for a Norwich resurgence, a narrow 2-1 victory for the home side seems plausible, aligning with both the most likely scorelines and the model's lean.

    Norwich CityNorwich City
    Form WDLLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #24xT #14xP/match #14Points #24
    Key players
    • Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.19
    • Pelle MattssonCMxG 0.69 · xT 0.15
    • Andre Chance BrooksRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
    BurnleyBurnley
    Form WWWDL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #7xP/match #16Points #19
    Key players
    • Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
    • Marcus EdwardsRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.33
    • Kyle WalkerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24
    Final score
    4 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Norwich City 53% · Draw 26% · Burnley 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - NorwichBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,64fair 6,75-17 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - BurnleyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,19fair 19,46-48 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Norwich City – Burnley

    Predicted score matrix

    Burnley →
    Norwich City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–16.1%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–111.5%
    1–25.7%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.7%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–13.7%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,75–1,02
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.14EV+2%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.80

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Norwich City to win53%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.31

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Norwich City to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Jacob Anthony Wright to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Jacob Anthony Wright to score32%
    • Florentino Ibrain Morris Luís to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Norwich City53% probability@2.50Bet365EV+32%reference odds
    • 1 · Norwich City53% probability@2.09PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Norwich City53% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Norwich CityX2 · Burnley
    Bet365
    EV+ 32%
    2.50    		3.402.50
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    2.08    		3.503.35
    Betsson
    EV+ 10%
    2.08    		3.503.35
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    2.08    		3.503.35
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    2.09    		3.683.47

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Norwich City win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.09 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    48 %38 %

    2.32 → 2.09

    X+3 %
    32 %22 %

    3.57 → 3.68

    2+19 %
    35 %25 %

    2.92 → 3.47

    Over 2,5-1 %
    59 %49 %

    1.79 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Norwich City 0Draw 0Burnley 2
    Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Norwich City have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Norwich City
    Burnley
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Norwich City (1–5)
    Burnley (3–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Norwich City
    Jose Cordoba: 101 passningar, xT 0.22CordobaKenny Mclean: 100 passningar, xT 0.33McleanHarry Darling: 88 passningar, xT 0.08DarlingBen Chrisene: 78 passningar, xT 0.06ChriseneKellen Fisher: 55 passningar, xT -0.01FisherVladan Kovačević: 45 passningar, xT 0.01KovačevićPelle Mattsson: 39 passningar, xT 0.13MattssonEdmond-Paris Maghoma: 27 passningar, xT 0.26MaghomaSam Field: 24 passningar, xT 0.04FieldOscar Schwartau: 21 passningar, xT 0.23SchwartauAndre Chance Brooks: 20 passningar, xT 0.05Brooks
    Burnley
    Max Alleyne: 137 passningar, xT 0.09AlleyneKyle Walker: 116 passningar, xT 0.48WalkerBashir Humphreys: 77 passningar, xT 0.08HumphreysMax Weiß: 69 passningar, xT 0.05WeißJacob Bruun Larsen: 44 passningar, xT 0.43LarsenJosh Laurent: 37 passningar, xT 0.02LaurentMarcus Edwards: 36 passningar, xT 0.63EdwardsAaron James Ramsey: 35 passningar, xT 0.08RamseyHannibal Mejbri: 34 passningar, xT 0.04MejbriOliver Sonne: 34 passningar, xT 0.06SonneConnor Roberts: 26 passningar, xT 0.03Roberts
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Norwich City
    Jose Cordoba: 101 passningar, xT 0.22CordobaKenny Mclean: 100 passningar, xT 0.33McleanHarry Darling: 88 passningar, xT 0.08DarlingBen Chrisene: 78 passningar, xT 0.06ChriseneKellen Fisher: 55 passningar, xT -0.01FisherVladan Kovačević: 45 passningar, xT 0.01KovačevićPelle Mattsson: 39 passningar, xT 0.13MattssonEdmond-Paris Maghoma: 27 passningar, xT 0.26MaghomaSam Field: 24 passningar, xT 0.04FieldOscar Schwartau: 21 passningar, xT 0.23SchwartauAndre Chance Brooks: 20 passningar, xT 0.05Brooks
    Burnley
    Max Alleyne: 137 passningar, xT 0.09AlleyneKyle Walker: 116 passningar, xT 0.48WalkerBashir Humphreys: 77 passningar, xT 0.08HumphreysMax Weiß: 69 passningar, xT 0.05WeißJacob Bruun Larsen: 44 passningar, xT 0.43LarsenJosh Laurent: 37 passningar, xT 0.02LaurentMarcus Edwards: 36 passningar, xT 0.63EdwardsAaron James Ramsey: 35 passningar, xT 0.08RamseyHannibal Mejbri: 34 passningar, xT 0.04MejbriOliver Sonne: 34 passningar, xT 0.06SonneConnor Roberts: 26 passningar, xT 0.03Roberts

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNorwich CityBurnley
    Points01
    xPoints2.62.4
    xG per match1.71.4
    xGA per match2.31.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.22
    Playing styleNorwich CityBurnley
    Build-up efficiency0.280.3
    Field tilt0.480.48
    xT per match0.861.2
    xTA per match10.66
    Won balls, offensive half2619
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.380.19
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.19
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.730.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.630.73
    Passes per match344375
    Passes against per match320434
    Switches of play per match2135.2
    Long balls per match2832
    Set piecesNorwich CityBurnley
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match5.65
    Corners against per match5.14.5
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.08
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.56
    OtherNorwich CityBurnley
    Throw-in control0.70.7
    The goalkeepersHarry Darling (Norwich City)Max Weiß (Burnley)
    Saves54
    Save %100%44%
    xG prevented100%22%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Norwich City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Burnley
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Norwich City vs Burnley according to our model?

    The model gives Norwich City a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norwich City 53%, draw 26%, Burnley 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.